Brexit and the Consequences

[barjon]

Hi Jon,


The stability we enjoy now results from trading with one another. That'll continue after we leave the EU - whatever deal (or no deal) we end up with. Corpses on battlefields won't happen for the simple reason that you can't sell cars (for example) to dead people. Sure, the EU deserves some credit for faciliating the trading agreements and, if the union today was just based on countries that wished to trade together (as opposed to political union) - I'd have voted to remain. Crediting the EU for the stability would only make sense (to me) if two or more member countries had got antsy with one another and the EU stepped in and successfully diffused the tension. They've not had to do this - yet. However, that could change if the Spain/Catalonia debacle gets out of hand. Hopefully it won't but, if it does, the EUs involvement thus far hardly fills one with confidence that they'll broker the peace.

I remember just before the referendum last year watching a TV debate that had one of our national treasures on the panel in the form the wonderful Sheila Hancock. At the time, I was convinced that the remain campaign were going to walk it - until I heard Sheila making the exact same argument that you've made here. Contrary to her protestations that her late father who fought in the war would be turning in his grave at the thought of leaving the EU - I thought the exact opposite - he'd be jumping with joy. After all, he fought to retain our independence and sovereignty - and not to be ruled by and dictated to by a foreign power. So, her argument made no sense to me at all.


We won't be wringing our hands though Jon - because we'll be shot of all the EU nonsense. We'll be looking on in glee at the poor souls imprisoned inside like caged birds.

Tim.

Er, haven’t they always been trading with one another? Didn’t stop them engaging in fisticuffs now and then. The stability has more likely come from being members of the same club and being prepared to abide (broadly) by its principles. As an aside NATO hasn’t had much to do with creating that stability within a historically warring group of nations. NATO is more to do with protecting the western alliance from outside threat, not “internal” strife.

 

[joseph1986]

/

The last time the US hit a growth rate above 4% was in 2014. Unlike us or businesses, a government has the licences to print money so debt to them is not the same as it is to us. QE has had an effect on everyone because without it business would have been unable to finance and that would have lead to growing unemployment which would have been a disaster. The biggest issue with QE is the global bond bubble it has cultivated. I suspect the credit crisis will be a 20 year problem with the next 10 years being a battle of inflation deflation. All this has nothing to do with brexit of course but I am sure the remainers will suckle on this teet for years to come.

ok, I was wrong it hit above 4 in 2013 and 2014....but do you realize what we're doing here, 4% now seems like it's amazing but this would be recession levels in the 90's nevermind 80's......just follow the trend. Yes it does have everything to do with brexit, ECONOMIES AREN'T GROWING!! Even if Britain gets the best deal out of the eurogroup what chance do they have in reaching 4%? Seriously the U.K. economic data makes america look like a utopia

 

[FXX]

ok, I was wrong it hit above 4 in 2013 and 2014....but do you realize what we're doing here, 4% now seems like it's amazing but this would be recession levels in the 90's nevermind 80's......just follow the trend. Yes it does have everything to do with brexit, ECONOMIES AREN'T GROWING!! Even if Britain gets the best deal out of the eurogroup what chance do they have in reaching 4%? Seriously the U.K. economic data makes america look like a utopia

Economies are growing. The last time the UK seen 4 percent growth was the late 70s. The UK has averaged under 1 percent to 2 percent since the 80s which has given people a fairly good standard of living. To state we have no chance of reaching 4 percent post brexit holds true regardless of brexit. In fact if we were to view he data from an EU member perspective, we seen higher growth rates prior to joining the EU. Based on this observation, the UK should look forward to returning to higher growth post brexit.

Our trade with the EU won't just stop and it has in fact been shrinking while growing outside the EU. 57 percent of our trade is outside the block. We have several countries including the USA that are looking to open free trade agreements. Things are looking very optimistic and we are a nation that is more than able to make a success of it.

 

[timsk]

Mornin' Jon,

Er, haven’t they always been trading with one another? Didn’t stop them engaging in fisticuffs now and then. The stability has more likely come from being members of the same club and being prepared to abide (broadly) by its principles.

If we were having this discussion back in October 1939 - then I would agree with you. But the world is a completely different place now and much (not everything) that applied then is irrelevant now. To make my point in a rather crude way, ask yourself this: what would happen to German car sales in the U.K. if Mrs. Merkel got bored with the stealth route and opted instead for a more direct approach and started to blitz London like the Luftwaffe did in 1940? Obviously, she ain't gonna do that for 101 reasons, and right at the top of that long list is trade. And that's regardless of whether or not we're in or out of the EU.

As an aside NATO hasn’t had much to do with creating that stability within a historically warring group of nations. NATO is more to do with protecting the western alliance from outside threat, not “internal” strife.

In broad terms this is my understanding too. But, again, that's for historical reasons. As you say, the threat is perceived to be from outside Europe - not inside it. If that changes, then NATO might need to shift its focus.

The thing to remember in all of this is that it's just one country that's leaving the EU. The EU itself isn't falling apart and, if we are to believe Atilla - it will only get stronger whether we're in it or not. So all this talk of splintering apart and fisticuffs is, to say the least, premature and yet another example of project fear.
Tim.

 

[barjon]

Mornin' Jon,

If we were having this discussion back in October 1939 - then I would agree with you. But the world is a completely different place now and much (not everything) that applied then is irrelevant now. To make my point in a rather crude way, ask yourself this: what would happen to German car sales in the U.K. if Mrs. Merkel got bored with the stealth route and opted instead for a more direct approach and started to blitz London like the Luftwaffe did in 1940? Obviously, she ain't gonna do that for 101 reasons, and right at the top of that long list is trade. And that's regardless of whether or not we're in or out of the EU.


In broad terms this is my understanding too. But, again, that's for historical reasons. As you say, the threat is perceived to be from outside Europe - not inside it. If that changes, then NATO might need to shift its focus.

The thing to remember in all of this is that it's just one country that's leaving the EU. The EU itself isn't falling apart and, if we are to believe Atilla - it will only get stronger whether we're in it or not. So all this talk of splintering apart and fisticuffs is, to say the least, premature and yet another example of project fear.
Tim.

Tim,

I didn’t say it would splinter apart and fisticuffs, nor am I endulging in project fear. All I said was that the European nations are more stable together than they have ever been in modern times. And that this situation is because the EU has brought them together. I’d also prefer to see the Eastern European nations part of the EU rather than Russian satellites. I’d like to see this maintain.

‘Course, every generation says it’s a different world now. Funny how it keeps reverting back to type though (bit like trading ). Remember WW1? The war that ended wars - oops.

 

[sminicooper]

Er, haven’t they always been trading with one another? Didn’t stop them engaging in fisticuffs now and then. The stability has more likely come from being members of the same club and being prepared to abide (broadly) by its principles. As an aside NATO hasn’t had much to do with creating that stability within a historically warring group of nations. NATO is more to do with protecting the western alliance from outside threat, not “internal” strife.

NATO was indeed formed to provide collective security against the Soviet Union. However, one of its major and to a large extent unrecognised, side-effects in Europe was to develop cooperation/dependency/stability within the former warring group of nations. Whereas the outward political machinations of the EU have mostly been on public display the internal military workings and cooperation between NATO members has largely been kept under wraps for obvious reasons. Thus the general observer has little to go on apart from some of the rubbish that is promulgated in the media. Rest assured that much good work in creating political stability has gone on over the years but behind the scenes, in NATO.

 

[Signalcalc]

Talking of the media, I was unsurprisingly surprised at the anti-Trump narrative when listening to BBC R4 morning programme around 0730 today, I haven’t listened to the show for about a year, and they were running a narrative on the anniversary of Trumps election win. It was similar to the Remain narrative that they have run ever since Brexit.

Unbelievable that they call themselves impartial.

 

[sminicooper]

Talking of the media, I was unsurprisingly surprised at the anti-Trump narrative when listening to BBC R4 morning programme around 0730 today, I haven’t listened to the show for about a year, and they were running a narrative on the anniversary of Trumps election win. It was similar to the Remain narrative that they have run ever since Brexit.

Unbelievable that they call themselves impartial.

Welcome back to the world of BBC Yuckspeak! Funnily enough I was also listening this morning and agree with your comments. But I've mainly given up listening to R4 Today Programme for the reasons you give. BBC Newsnight also suffers the same – although their Guardianista editor is leaving but I don't hold out much hope there.

It's difficult to know these days where to go for unbiased/factual information. The best you can do is to trawl all the media and come to some sort of conclusion. The best quote I've heard this week is that we're not suffering from fake news in the UK but fake government!

 

[barjon]

Welcome back to the world of BBC Yuckspeak! Funnily enough I was also listening this morning and agree with your comments. But I've mainly given up listening to R4 Today Programme for the reasons you give. BBC Newsnight also suffers the same – although their Guardianista editor is leaving but I don't hold out much hope there.

It's difficult to know these days where to go for unbiased/factual information. The best you can do is to trawl all the media and come to some sort of conclusion. The best quote I've heard this week is that we're not suffering from fake news in the UK but fake government!

One bit of the BBC news app shows the front pages of all the newspapers from the Daily Star through to the FT. The different slant on the same stories gives you a chuckle most days.

My favourite was Theresa May’s conference speech which was universally headlined as a disaster except for the Daily Express which headlined it as May showing her grit and determination (can’t remember the exact words).

 

[dbphoenix]

One bit of the BBC news app shows the front pages of all the newspapers from the Daily Star through to the FT. The different slant on the same stories gives you a chuckle most days.

My favourite was Theresa May’s conference speech which was universally headlined as a disaster except for the Daily Express which headlined it as May showing her grit and determination (can’t remember the exact words).

I've gravitated toward AP, UPI and IBT. Most everyone else has become too annoying, whether liberal or conservative. All I want to know is what's happened. I'm not much interested in what anyone thinks about it.

 

[Atilla]

Blow what I say.

Read this https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...wth-forecast-lifted-again-as-u-k-outlook-dims

 

[barjon]

Blow what I say.

Read this https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...wth-forecast-lifted-again-as-u-k-outlook-dims

Nah, it’s just project fear doncha know

 

[counter_violent]

Atilla and co living in cuckoo land.

Turn off the EU printing press and see how quickly they dive.

Economic growth indeed

 

[Pat494]

I wonder how big the tariff walls will be in the UK after brexit ?
Uncompetitive countries need tariff walls to protect their industries and jobs.

 

[sminicooper]

The EU Parliamentary Withdrawal Bill

The government has tabled a cross-party backed amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill defining exit date.

The PM has written:
“It will be there in black and white on the front page of this historic piece of legislation: the United Kingdom will be leaving the EU on March 29, 2019 at 11pm GMT.”

She also says:
“But I am just as clear of this: we will not tolerate attempts from any quarter to use the process of amendments to this Bill as a mechanism to try to block the democratic wishes of the British people by attempting to slow down or stop our departure from the European Union. The British people have been clear. Parliament itself voted for Article 50 – and for this Bill at its Second Reading. We are leaving the European Union on March 29, 2019.”

This will really rile up the likes of the BBC and Lord Heseltine – who I understand is so desperate that he now recommends voting for Corbyn in the hope that he might accede to the Remainers. Sounds like he's losing his marbles just like Gordon Brown who has now come crawling out of the woodwork with the idea that there could be a second referendum. ................. Talk about bad losers!

 

[sminicooper]

I wonder how big the tariff walls will be in the UK after brexit ?
Uncompetitive countries need tariff walls to protect their industries and jobs.

The EU knows all about that!

 

[Pat494]

I think if the more enlightened people at the EU in Brussels/Luxemburg would enlarge the EU to encompass their trading partners without all the political/legal crap many in Britain for one would like to stay. As it is with some Germans tightening the noose ( Hitker's Dream ) there are others who have exit parties and the whole shebang could collapse and should collapse.

 

[tomorton]

The EU is a route, not a destination. The objective is political unification of Europe. So economic problems and failures along the way are not critical issues and are wide of the mark as targets for critics. Do not think that if the EU and/or the Euro collapse, the federal Europe project ends.

 

[sminicooper]

The EU is a route, not a destination. The objective is political unification of Europe. So economic problems and failures along the way are not critical issues and are wide of the mark as targets for critics. Do not think that if the EU and/or the Euro collapse, the federal Europe project ends.

Spot on! As with so many political projects, economic common sense/the will of the people/welfare of individuals are sacrificed on the altar of Politics. Hopefully the EU will never sink to the depths of communism and its far right counterparts; but the tendencies are there – witness the EU's response to events in Spain. The EU will teeter on despite any economic setbacks, and like any flawed system it will eventually fail.

 

[barjon]

The EU is a route, not a destination. The objective is political unification of Europe. So economic problems and failures along the way are not critical issues and are wide of the mark as targets for critics. Do not think that if the EU and/or the Euro collapse, the federal Europe project ends.

So whose project is this, then? Some powerful Dr No type mastermind? A secret agreement between major nations ? Unwritten Government policies? Or just a bit of wishful thinking by a few bureaucrats?