Brexit and the Consequences

[Atilla]

Go back to your homes and prepare to vote – Cox's codpiece has left Brexit exposed and a second referendum is now inevitable

 

[0007]

I see it relatively simply, we had a good trading relationship with the EEC until the early 90's, we signed up to that in the 70's with reservations about the political ambitions of the EU. Then the UK signed up to political treaties to join the EU without consultation which confirmed the suspicions of the EU's political ambitions and that has resulted in Brexit.

Those that voted leave have not got cold feet, only remain MPs have. The majority of leave voters want to leave come hell or high water because of the basic principles of 'democracy' that the EU denies us, we don't like to be ruled by unelected overlords that we have no chance of ridding ourselves of, they can and have imposed many unpopular laws that have to be incorporated into our legal system, we have no control over this. Economics are now a secondary consideration.

The situation that has come to light since the referendum has been enlightening, opening many eyes to modern politics, geopolitics, globalism, populism, elitism, fake news MSM etc etc

The EU is analogous to the USSR, the only way to leave is by popular vote or violence, Brexit is the test case for the EU, if it succeeds the dominoes could start to fall, if Brexit fails then they can accelerate their political ambitions.

One major reason why UKGov is so reluctant to leave is because of the military, intelligence and security position they have agreed with the EU. EU military unification is little debated, never reaches MSM and is enacted bypassing parliamentary scrutiny, it's almost as if it doesn't exist and yet it is happening under our noses, much as most of the Brexit negotiations have been obfuscated and kept from scrutiny, so has EU military unification.

EU is filling the vacuum left in Nato by the USA who quite rightly have had enough of subbing Europe's defence. With the former only worthwhile European member of Nato totally immersed in Brexit, the EU can take further steps towards its empire ambitions by means of military expenditure under the guise of military unification - without needing the competence & effectiveness which used to be provided by the UK.

 

[0007]

This is a pretty accurate forecast of what will happen if we leave on the 29th ...........

https://twitter.com/x/status/1105444677657026566

 

[Atilla]

EU is filling the vacuum left in Nato by the USA who quite rightly have had enough of subbing Europe's defence. With the formerly only worthwhile European member of Nato totally immersed in Brexit, the EU can take further steps towards its empire ambitions by means of military expenditure under the guise of military unification - without needing the competence & effectiveness which used to be provided by the UK.

I'm always surprised by these kinds of posts.

NATO was essentially to keep Russia in check, protecting the Atlantic ocean from Russian navy fleet. These old methods of alliance are so very defunct now.

There is a new world out there. It is much smaller than the old world. Cyber and chemical wars are the new threat. Nuclear is so yesterday.

When spending money on the military what is the threat we are trying to mitigate by what means? Does anyone here really think we'll ever go to war again with France or Germany? Russia or China even?

You say EU is building an empire. So which other countries will EU come to dominate? Russia? Maybe. I see integration with Russia a possibility. War however, not. UK needs to focus on inventing, discovering and building upon new technologies.

Does anyone here think we'll go to war with Spain over Gibraltar?

 

[Atilla]

This is a pretty accurate forecast of what will happen if we leave on the 29th ...........

https://twitter.com/x/status/1105444677657026566

LOL - I love this post...

 

[0007]

I'm always surprised by these kinds of posts.

NATO was essentially to keep Russia in check, protecting the Atlantic ocean from Russian navy fleet. These old methods of alliance are so very defunct now.

There is a new world out there. It is much smaller than the old world. Cyber and chemical wars are the new threat. Nuclear is so yesterday.

When spending money on the military what is the threat we are trying to mitigate by what means? Does anyone here really think we'll ever go to war again with France or Germany? Russia or China even?

You say EU is building an empire. So which other countries will EU come to dominate? Russia? Maybe. I see integration with Russia a possibility. War however, not. UK needs to focus on inventing, discovering and building upon new technologies.

Does anyone here think we'll go to war with Spain over Gibraltar?

I empathise with your views - to a certain degree. One of Nato's biggest problems after the fall of the Berlin Wall was that it was out of a job. Quite right – Nato should now be employing brain power rather brawn. Potentially big cyber threats etc from Russia & China. It's also important to remember that you don't need insurance until your house is on fire. As to EU empire building: it's not really for any military purpose – it's just what aspiring nations do!

We all know that historically the mainstream Generals always fight the last war – but given the quality of our politicians today why should we expect that to change?

 

[barjon]

So, that’s it then. If parliament rejects a “no deal” exit tomorrow (having rejected a deal today) they will likely then vote to send the PM on her knees to plead for an extension.

I’m more and more convinced that they’ll toss it back to the people to get themselves out of the impasse they have created. The Brexiteers may well have blown it to the extent that we finish up staying in, so i’m beginning to share Tim’s fears.

 

[hhiusa]

The key Brexit questions you've wanted to ask, answered

Is Brexit going away
Nice try! No. Brexit is happening on March 29 unless the UK applies for an extension to article 50. That vote is probably going to take place on Thursday. The EU Council meets next week (March 21) which would likely be May's nearest chance to apply for such an extension.

Could the EU kick the UK out of the EU?
Short answer yes, but why would they? If the EU wanted a no deal crash out, they only need to wait another 17 days.

Can the EU laugh and say no, when/if the UK asks for more time?
I doubt they would laugh – Eurocrats are not famed for their sense of humor (apart from Donald Tusk) – but with a heavy heart, the leaders of the EU 27 members states could decline the UK's request for an extension to article 50. It only takes one member state to veto the extension and many of them have good reason for doing so. The EU has been consistent that if the UK asks for an extension with sensible suggestions as to how they can get out of this trench, it would be carefully considered. But EU diplomats have also made clear for months that they see no point is delaying only to end up back where we are now.

What about another referendum?

Right now, the clearest path to a second Brexit vote is if the opposition Labour Party puts forward an amendment that a majority of the House of Commons backs. Labour recently adopted a formal policy of backing a second public vote on Brexit, should their alternative plan to May's be defeated in a commons vote, which it was last month. But people hoping to see Brexit cancelled should keep the champagne corked for the time being. Labour hasn't tabled any such amendment to date, and there's a pretty good reason for that: they don't think it will pass. The risk of losing that vote is too great to play around with and would both undermine the authority of the opposition and exacerbate divisions within the party. Yes, it's not just May's Conservatives that have problems...

The other reason Remainers should hold off the celebrations is this: it's not clear that even if a second public vote were to be held, Remain would be on the ballot. Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour Party, has been careful not to endorse the so-called "People's Vote" campaign and instead always words his second referendum plan as a second public vote.

Is the threat that Brexit can be lost real?

The sight of May and President of the European Commission Jean Claude Juncker sat side-by-side Monday night, claiming it was this deal or no Brexit, was nothing short of extraordinary. Both know that this isn't really true. The only way Brexit can be lost is if the UK revokes Article 50. It would need to pass an act of parliament to do so, which without a public vote instructing parliament to do so is a total non-starter. It could happen, but it would require first a Brexit delay, then a national vote with a huge majority.

 

[hhiusa]

Mr Speaker, I would like to set out briefly how the Government means to proceed.
Two weeks ago, I made a series of commitments from this despatch box regarding the steps we would take in the event that this House rejected the deal on offer. I stand by those commitments in full.
Therefore, tonight we will table a motion for debate tomorrow to test whether the House supports leaving the European Union without a deal on 29th March.

Now the key is that if 75 Tories broke rank during this vote, will vote for a No-Deal Brexit. I'm trying to figure out the reasoning—if there is any—in the mind of a Labour MP and that of a Labour supporter. Labour wants an orderly Brexit, but has voted against May mostly for spite from what I can tell even though the Deal is S$%!. I wouldn't accept it. Do they honestly think they will be able to pass a bill revoke Article 50? Why would they want that if they want an orderly Brexit? Nonsensical right? Those 313 MPs should take the lesser of the evils, appease their base, and vote No-Deal.

 

[Atilla]

So, that’s it then. If parliament rejects a “no deal” exit tomorrow (having rejected a deal today) they will likely then vote to send the PM on her knees to plead for an extension.

I’m more and more convinced that they’ll toss it back to the people to get themselves out of the impasse they have created. The Brexiteers may well have blown it to the extent that we finish up staying in, so i’m beginning to share Tim’s fears.

Why fear?

It is simply Parliament taking control back from the minority Eurosceptic MPs. That's clear to see. .

Not like those who voted lose their vote. They can simply vote again the same way.

If anything everyone can now have, a more informed vote than the one we've had before.

What is lost? Nothing but couple of years. There is no urgency about the decision.

What is important is that we get the decision right.

 

[barjon]

Why fear?

It is simply Parliament taking control back from the minority Eurosceptic MPs. That's clear to see. .

Not like those who voted lose their vote. They can simply vote again the same way.

If anything everyone can now have, a more informed vote than the one we've had before.

What is lost? Nothing but couple of years. There is no urgency about the decision.

What is important is that we get the decision right.

They were Tim’s fears not mine He feared that Brexit might never happen. I’m beginning to agree. The conspiracy theorists have it that staying was (is) Theresa’s game all along - if so she’s playing a blinder.

 

[Atilla]

They were Tim’s fears not mine He feared that Brexit might never happen. I’m beginning to agree. The conspiracy theorists have it that staying was (is) Theresa’s game all along - if so she’s playing a blinder.

Oh right sorry Barjon, as I thought that was unusual, being a level headed bloke that you are.

Nice back hander to my old amigo Tim there...

 

[Atilla]

Well, either it will happen in an orderly or disorderly fashion, but it will happen.

Dreamer...

 

[Signalcalc]

They were Tim’s fears not mine He feared that Brexit might never happen. I’m beginning to agree. The conspiracy theorists have it that staying was (is) Theresa’s game all along - if so she’s playing a blinder.

It's written in the stars, conspiracy fact (an all too regular occurrence at the moment).

 

[Signalcalc]

Why fear?

It is simply Parliament taking control back from the minority Eurosceptic MPs. That's clear to see. .

Not like those who voted lose their vote. They can simply vote again the same way.

If anything everyone can now have, a more informed vote than the one we've had before.

What is lost? Nothing but couple of years. There is no urgency about the decision.

What is important is that we get the decision right.

Looks like someone has been on the happy pills, think things are going your way?

I'm pretty sure most of those Eurosceptic MP's (representing the majority of the country) voted against the deal also, nothing to do with taking back control

 

[Atilla]

I'll have to have some words with Peter Bottomley… He has apparently voted for the deal. Who knows what he was thinking?

It's the money that sticks in my throat.

What I find amazing is that some people can think that deal is good value??? Shocking. Absolutely shocking.

 

[hhiusa]

Nobody is "dreaming" or being delusional about Brexit except for Bremainers.
Chance of no-deal Brexit has 'significantly increased', says EU – as it happened

...With only 17 days left to 29 March, today’s vote has significantly increased the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit.

The vote made a no-deal Brexit more likely

The UK is moving closer to crashing out of the European Union without a deal

 

[timsk]

They were Tim’s fears not mine He feared that Brexit might never happen. I’m beginning to agree. The conspiracy theorists have it that staying was (is) Theresa’s game all along - if so she’s playing a blinder.

Thanks for reminding me Jon!

It's certainly starting to look like Brexit won't happen. Today, assuming all the pundits are correct in their analysis, Parliament will vote to take no-deal off the table, thus removing one of the two major trump cards that the government holds in its negotiating position. (The other being the 39 billion.) I'm of the view that this is mind boggling stupidity on the part of MPs and the only people who would vote to do this are remainers hell bent on reversing Brexit. Then, tomorrow, (again assuming all the pundits are correct in their analysis), they will vote in favour of extending Article 50. Again, sheer madness, because with no-deal off the table, the EU can call the shots re. the timetable and attach whatever conditions they want. I expect France will bring up fishing (again), Spain will raise Gib' and so on. Parliament won't be happy about that, and so an already dire situation will be made even worse. Crazy!

To summarise very succinctly (something you seldom get from me!), the whole sorry mess can be expressed using four and five letter acronyms:
Brino: Brexit in name only
Gino: Government in name only
Lino: Leadership in name only
Opino: Opposition in name only
Dino: Democracy in name only

What a bloody shambles. (Apologies to At' for using the B word - but it's warranted)
Tim.

 

[Atilla]

Thanks for reminding me Jon!

It's certainly starting to look like Brexit won't happen. Today, assuming all the pundits are correct in their analysis, Parliament will vote to take no-deal off the table, thus removing one of the two major trump cards that the government holds in its negotiating position. (The other being the 39 billion.) I'm of the view that this is mind boggling stupidity on the part of MPs and the only people who would vote to do this are remainers hell bent on reversing Brexit. Then, tomorrow, (again assuming all the pundits are correct in their analysis), they will vote in favour of extending Article 50. Again, sheer madness, because with no-deal off the table, the EU can call the shots re. the timetable and attach whatever conditions they want. I expect France will bring up fishing (again), Spain will raise Gib' and so on. Parliament won't be happy about that, and so an already dire situation will be made even worse. Crazy!

To summarise very succinctly (something you seldom get from me!), the whole sorry mess can be expressed using four and five letter acronyms:
Brino: Brexit in name only
Gino: Government in name only
Lino: Leadership in name only
Opino: Opposition in name only
Dino: Democracy in name only

What a bloody shambles. (Apologies to At' for using the B word - but it's warranted)
Tim.

No apologies necessary Tim as I was inspired by your super posts and civility despite my extreme outbursts. You can't do wrong in my eyes, with the exception of voting for Brexit of course.

I don't think it's that bad fwiw. I have resigned my self to Brexit and feel well climatised and I say that sincerely. However, much like obtaining a second medical opinion given there is something very wrong with our house at the moment, whether it is in the guise of a new election or referendum/people's vote, I don't see much wrong being done.

I fail to see why there is a mad rush on a decision we need to get right rather than something that has to be done now with mad urgency.

If we did get that 2nd opinion and the British people voted out, believe me then after all we've been through, I will put my 100% behind that vote and work towards making it a success.

Right now with all the lies and deceit and fear mongering I just feel cheated perhaps same as Brexiteers.

The country needs to be united and this second election/referendum will achieve that putting the squabbles to rest.

 

[0007]

I see that the government has come up with a scheme for tariffs in the event of No Deal. Strange isn't it that they can now postulate a scheme that's workable, with no guard dogs and Vopo towers on the border, no 15 mile queues of HGVs, no rioting and no mention of apocalypse and the end of civilisation as we currently know it. Funny old thing!