Yep, Ms Green pants has got the moves!
I reckon it's more like a case of
It'll hold this level around 4500or get down further.
https://media.tenor.com/images/00bf768b0be663fb3063dfadd1a94d84/tenor.gif
https://media.tenor.com/images/00bf768b0be663fb3063dfadd1a94d84/tenor.gif
Atilla
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Well done to lil ol mi for taking gold this week just 14 ticks away from Friday's close. Also what a super number the SPX closed at 4488.28. Don't you just love it?
CV the only other bear takes the silver. All the other bulls get de nada.
League Table after week 2 in Quarter 2 is looking like this...
Keep those forecasts sharpened. In these crazy days there are no hostages taken and those -1 soon add up. Getting direction correct is essential to making money. Don't swim against the market n all that. Having said that I was expecting much bigger drops. Stunned as to how the markets can stay at these highs for so long contrary to sooo much bad news. Just goes to show I know notink!
Have a g8 weekend y'all now. 👏 👏 🥳🥳
CV the only other bear takes the silver. All the other bulls get de nada.
League Table after week 2 in Quarter 2 is looking like this...
Keep those forecasts sharpened. In these crazy days there are no hostages taken and those -1 soon add up. Getting direction correct is essential to making money. Don't swim against the market n all that. Having said that I was expecting much bigger drops. Stunned as to how the markets can stay at these highs for so long contrary to sooo much bad news. Just goes to show I know notink!
Have a g8 weekend y'all now.
👏 👏 🥳🥳Congrats Atilla. A well-deserved win. 👏 Well played.
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Point of order though - help me out here.
The rules state:
" c) 1 point for third nearest (bronze medal) "
Don't see a bronze medal up there. Who came third?
Surely 1 point for Bronze and a minus point for wrong trend direction would leave nil points showing as "0"
- if that third place was myself? Yes/No?
-------------------
Been examining where I went wrong and the first thing I noticed was the spreadsheet figure staring back at me all along in the bearish column.
It was exactly to the precise point as the actual close - 4488 ! Bugger!
Holey Moley! Exactly?!??? Karma/fate is having a laugh at me, surely?
-------------------
Point of order though - help me out here.
The rules state:
" c) 1 point for third nearest (bronze medal) "
Don't see a bronze medal up there. Who came third?
Surely 1 point for Bronze and a minus point for wrong trend direction would leave nil points showing as "0"
- if that third place was myself? Yes/No?
-------------------
Been examining where I went wrong and the first thing I noticed was the spreadsheet figure staring back at me all along in the bearish column.
It was exactly to the precise point as the actual close - 4488 ! Bugger!
Holey Moley! Exactly?!??? Karma/fate is having a laugh at me, surely?
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April for the S&P 500 has for both the recent and extremely long term has:
A)
Always produced a gain for the month of April.
and
B)
April is always the biggest producing gain of the year, whether checking 5 years, 10 years, 20 years and even further back. (Historical seasonality charts).
This bear trend could turn that over this year, but I like probabilities and the probabilities are screaming back at me, that April will produce a decent gain by the close of April.
Whatever
A)
Always produced a gain for the month of April.
and
B)
April is always the biggest producing gain of the year, whether checking 5 years, 10 years, 20 years and even further back. (Historical seasonality charts).
This bear trend could turn that over this year, but I like probabilities and the probabilities are screaming back at me, that April will produce a decent gain by the close of April.
Whatever
counter_violent
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Yeah, but, what about next week !April for the S&P 500 has for both the recent and extremely long term has:
A)
Always produced a gain for the month of April.
and
B)
April is always the biggest producing gain of the year, whether checking 5 years, 10 years, 20 years and even further back. (Historical seasonality charts).
This bear trend could turn that over this year, but I like probabilities and the probabilities are screaming back at me, that April will produce a decent gain by the close of April.
Whatever
Hi CV,
I thought my post implied that 'historically' April was a seriously tough nut to turn the Index bearish and annually is virtually, almost a default bullish month
- when talking in monthly seasonality terms; and therefore last week was of limited duration as a bear trend continuation?
And therefore bullish conditions may bubble to the surface for next week, no?
Anyway, after posting late here last night, I was still on the computer until 1:00am-ish. setting up the new framework for next week, which will answer your specific retort/question
Pretty sure the 200-day-trend floor, is going to repel any further downward pullbacks as the last 3 days (Wed/Thurs/Friday) the index played around right on the 200 border - but not one of those 3 days opened and closed fully beneath the 200.
Tempting to go with another bullish forecast.
Also plenty of "indecisive" individual-day patterns formed in those 3 days as in indecisive in wishing to continue with the current bear trend.
However, weekly forecasting is fish out of water territory for me.
I usually don't dwell on targets and instead follow the trend, letting it dictate terms to me for me to comply with.
And my short-term trend although bearishly curling at the corners of its mouth, is still reading bullishly and has yet to cross to the downside.
The weaker ultra-short-term trends are of course bearish.
More work to do yet.
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Rescind that request Atilla.
Checked and you do say -
" Get 1 point for getting direction correct from previous Friday close
- Having got direction right then:-
b) 2 points for second nearest (silver medal)
c) 1 point for third nearest (bronze medal)
d) 1 point will be deducted if direction of the forecast is wrong "
Which my brain has finally interpreted as:
Having got direction right then, AND ONLY THEN :-
. . . a, b, c, etc., etc.,
However in a parallel universe in a galaxy far, far away, and similar to "the People's Princess", I am the true and only, usurper bronze winner of the week. Rated third in closeness despite my heading off in the opposite direction. I am the People's Third-Rate bronze winner.
If this was the Eurovision song contest they would have no qualms about voting me nul points ( 1 point for 3rd closest and -1 for incorrect direction = 0 points)
The people would say I've earned my nul points. I should be on the third podium holding up a white card proudly displaying my 0 points achieved as a third rate winner.
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Oscar Reed
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4509 please
Atilla
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Rescind that request Atilla.
Checked and you do say -
" Get 1 point for getting direction correct from previous Friday close
a) 3 points for nearest (gold medal)
- Having got direction right then:-
b) 2 points for second nearest (silver medal)
c) 1 point for third nearest (bronze medal)
d) 1 point will be deducted if direction of the forecast is wrong "
Which my brain has finally interpreted as:
Having got direction right then, AND ONLY THEN :-
. . . a, b, c, etc., etc.,
However in a parallel universe in a galaxy far, far away, and similar to "the People's Princess", I am the true and only, usurper bronze winner of the week. Rated third in closeness despite my heading off in the opposite direction. I am the People's Third-Rate bronze winner.
If this was the Eurovision song contest they would have no qualms about voting me nul points ( 1 point for 3rd closest and -1 for incorrect direction = 0 points)
The people would say I've earned my nul points. I should be on the third podium holding up a white card proudly displaying my 0 points achieved as a third rate winner.
Yes that is correct, podium medals and points are only awarded if direction is also correct.
Another point, BB_Tfs, WAVG and AVG are android metrics and whilst they participate in full scoring they do not get awarded any prizes. Quarterly and end of year prize Amazon vouchers are only awarded to bloggers for just one entry.
If you did have a system and wish to enter a black box forecast this is possible. BB_Trend Following System version 2 is one of mine I'm trialing to see how it performs. The average and weighted average is just something we always had since Pat the founder of the competition started it all. (Sadly he is no longer with us. I'm thinking we lost him to Covid, the sharks or something).
CavaliereVerde
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4550
counter_violent
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4444.4 ta
I run towards the 20-foot high x by 10-foot thick, solid concrete-rock doors held fast by the ancient tombs carved out of the mountain rock.
With the numbers held on the centuries-old piece of crumbling parchment, I must reach the tomb of the ancient kings before the sunlight strikes 2:30pm or the head-hunting natives gathering at the edges of the dense forest-jungle will sacrifice us all upon the altar to the angry gods.
I run faster to outpace the natives who it must be said, because of their jungle lifestyle, naturally eat organically fresh produce, and I don't.
But it does them no favours, as with them being descended from the Putin tribe, are only 4' 6" tall - so an easy ask, for me.
As the parchment is lit up by the sun, the concrete doors slowly creak and echo loudly throughout the valley floor. A long-horn bellows on a mountain top trumpeting an ear-shattering, deeply reverberating thudding bass so much so, that the ground shakes.
The natives start throwing their spears.
As the first spear clatters into the giant doors they crack only a little further open.
The natives are upon me.
With my remaining strength I accelerate and launch myself through the air, landing I know not where, and without drawing breath, continue with an athletic, forward combat roll, to jump up and find myself inside the ancient tomb and the doors now closing behind me of their own accord.
I hold the numbered parchment up to the altar where the sole sunbeam pierces the parchment. Priests hum and chant as the numbers are lit up one by one, which only they can see. The head priest calls out the numbers individually in that sort-of, native-type gibberish, to the mass of now bloodied flat-nosed natives, peeling themselves off and sliding down the giant concrete doors.
I turn to the priest and ask: Will these be the close of the S&P500 by Friday of this week?
He nods in the affirmative.
I ask what they are, and he points to the dazzling sunbeam now lighting up the parchment on the altar. Before I can read the numbers now revealed by the sun, the parchment catches alight and burns. The priest turns to the monk-priests (the monkey priests?) and they chant the numbers as the natives fall to their knees, arms outstretched, with heads bowed in supplication. As I stride past the natives, the Monk priests chant in song:
" Anywhere between 4424 up to 4509, or even up to 4567 "
WTF?!? I cry. Which one?
" Take your pick mate " they all chorus back as if one.
So I choose 4509 and ask: Will that do it?
They shrug amongst themselves, then chant back in chorus:
" Dunno, we all put our money on the 2:30 at Doncaster. "
With the numbers held on the centuries-old piece of crumbling parchment, I must reach the tomb of the ancient kings before the sunlight strikes 2:30pm or the head-hunting natives gathering at the edges of the dense forest-jungle will sacrifice us all upon the altar to the angry gods.
I run faster to outpace the natives who it must be said, because of their jungle lifestyle, naturally eat organically fresh produce, and I don't.
But it does them no favours, as with them being descended from the Putin tribe, are only 4' 6" tall - so an easy ask, for me.
As the parchment is lit up by the sun, the concrete doors slowly creak and echo loudly throughout the valley floor. A long-horn bellows on a mountain top trumpeting an ear-shattering, deeply reverberating thudding bass so much so, that the ground shakes.
The natives start throwing their spears.
As the first spear clatters into the giant doors they crack only a little further open.
The natives are upon me.
With my remaining strength I accelerate and launch myself through the air, landing I know not where, and without drawing breath, continue with an athletic, forward combat roll, to jump up and find myself inside the ancient tomb and the doors now closing behind me of their own accord.
I hold the numbered parchment up to the altar where the sole sunbeam pierces the parchment. Priests hum and chant as the numbers are lit up one by one, which only they can see. The head priest calls out the numbers individually in that sort-of, native-type gibberish, to the mass of now bloodied flat-nosed natives, peeling themselves off and sliding down the giant concrete doors.
I turn to the priest and ask: Will these be the close of the S&P500 by Friday of this week?
He nods in the affirmative.
I ask what they are, and he points to the dazzling sunbeam now lighting up the parchment on the altar. Before I can read the numbers now revealed by the sun, the parchment catches alight and burns. The priest turns to the monk-priests (the monkey priests?) and they chant the numbers as the natives fall to their knees, arms outstretched, with heads bowed in supplication. As I stride past the natives, the Monk priests chant in song:
" Anywhere between 4424 up to 4509, or even up to 4567 "
WTF?!? I cry. Which one?
" Take your pick mate " they all chorus back as if one.
So I choose 4509 and ask: Will that do it?
They shrug amongst themselves, then chant back in chorus:
" Dunno, we all put our money on the 2:30 at Doncaster. "
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Well, what a stinker from across the pond. Here in the UK my portfolios continue to have a brill continuance from last week.
Anyway, I better pull my oars in, on maintaining a bullish outlook for the S&P500. Knew I was too early but this descent is moving the goalposts.
Closed on 4412 tonight.
A smidgen lower tomorrow and it's (cough) the 4300's!
My short-term trends are kissing tonight, so tomorrow they will likely cross to the downside and join the ultra-short-term trends and thus remove all expectations from my outlook of an imminent bullish breakout. Perhaps next week?
- A heckler in the audience is angrily shouting something at me can't hear him, sounds a bit like:
"GET ANY MENTION OF BULLISHNESS OUT OF YOUR FECKIN' MOUTH!!"
That post of mine the other day mentioning an Engulfing candlestick came to nothing. I find candlesticks about 80% reliable - but I'm addicted to them
Worse though, the index tonight opened and closed below the mighty 200-day trend line today. Nothing can thrive below the 200.
Whilst all is possible above it.
So the bears rule, no argument - for the time being.
Anyway, I better pull my oars in, on maintaining a bullish outlook for the S&P500. Knew I was too early but this descent is moving the goalposts.
Closed on 4412 tonight.
A smidgen lower tomorrow and it's (cough) the 4300's!
My short-term trends are kissing tonight, so tomorrow they will likely cross to the downside and join the ultra-short-term trends and thus remove all expectations from my outlook of an imminent bullish breakout. Perhaps next week?
- A heckler in the audience is angrily shouting something at me can't hear him, sounds a bit like:
"GET ANY MENTION OF BULLISHNESS OUT OF YOUR FECKIN' MOUTH!!"
That post of mine the other day mentioning an Engulfing candlestick came to nothing. I find candlesticks about 80% reliable - but I'm addicted to them
Worse though, the index tonight opened and closed below the mighty 200-day trend line today. Nothing can thrive below the 200.
Whilst all is possible above it.
So the bears rule, no argument - for the time being.
Atilla
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Hi Everyone,
Here are the forecasts for week 15. We are well balanced with 5 bulls and 5 bears. Cat's Paw is the most bullish v 1nvest who is the most bearish. We have 155 point variance in the forecast. Estimated variance has dropped quite a bit from the 397 at the start of the quarter so perhaps a consensus is forming on where the market is taking us.
Wishing you all good fortunes and a happy delightful week of fun things, building up to Easter Weekend.
Here are the forecasts for week 15. We are well balanced with 5 bulls and 5 bears. Cat's Paw is the most bullish v 1nvest who is the most bearish. We have 155 point variance in the forecast. Estimated variance has dropped quite a bit from the 397 at the start of the quarter so perhaps a consensus is forming on where the market is taking us.
Wishing you all good fortunes and a happy delightful week of fun things, building up to Easter Weekend.
Atilla
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1nvest takes the gold medal this week. 👏👏 and big thank you for the correction. Good call being the bearish of us all.
Atilla takes silver and CV the bronze bucket. 👏👏
Quarter 2 - League Table with Running Totals.
Wishing you all a fab Easter Weekend hols and good times.
Good call being the bearish of us all. Atilla takes silver and CV the bronze bucket. 👏👏
Quarter 2 - League Table with Running Totals.
Wishing you all a fab Easter Weekend hols and good times.
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