S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2022

Velo

Junior member
Think I'll submit my guesstimate on a Sunday in future, as was on course for missing today's deadline again; so belatedly rearranged chores to get this in!

I'm torn between two 2 areas: 4175 my first choice, or 4099
But which?

4000 in the week, then the start of a bounce back up, by end of week?
Or more linearly, take all week to get to 4000?
Tsk!

Looks like my belief that April would close a couple of hundred points higher is now likely, holed below the waterline, as last week's close has shown the Index for April is so far, (according to the talking heads on TV) the worst performing month over the last near-10 years!
(As it's averaged mostly gains and the best gains of each year in that time, it only has to close with a small decrease in that month to stand out)
- but geez! The lowest % performance in almost 10 years!

So much for my: April can't fail to close up from where it commenced. Doh!

Despite being delighted to win gold last week as my first ever medal, the week's close still went whizzing further past my selection, by over 56 points lower.
Single points in difference would have misled me into thinking I had 'a system', so just as well it didn't :)

Decision time:
I'll go for:

4175 !
 

Velo

Junior member
Markets are bad today, reflecting US markets poor performance last week. My fav story of last week was this:


Bill Ackman's name crops up regularly in the media and on the TV finance channels as a talented investor and his opinions are sought after.

However, it was disclosed he lost $400m by selling Netflex, after only buying it sometime in January for $1.1bn!

Could you lose $400m in losses, from a $1.1bn investment in circa 3 months, before taking action? I think it unlikely.

I admire his fast decision-making, in cutting a bad investment, but as high and mighty as he's regarded, just looking at the state of the trends in Netflix - at the time he bought, never mind from a position of hindsight - at the time he invested!!!

- Makes you wonder about the mindset of some of these guru investor types.

It wasn't an honest error of judgement - instead, it would rank as a textbook pure investor-beginner error.

Reassuring to read of the gurus' feck-up's when depressing things happen in your own portfolios.
 
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Atilla

Legendary member
Hi Everyone,

First off wellcome to our new forecaster Snowsword :)

Always good to see new forecasters joining the competition. More the better. It is important to have a view on what others are thinking.

This week 17th of the year, we have 7 bears and 3 bulls. CavalierVerde is leading the bulls with a modest 33 point rise for his forecast. Our newcomer Snowsword is the most bearish with another 111 point drop pencilled in.

The average and trend following metrics are all down. Not much of a news week but for the Core Price Index in the states. That should stuff some more fear into inflationary pressures but who knows?

Wishing you all a good trading week.


1650966183999.png
 
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Atilla

Legendary member
Markets are bad today, reflecting US markets poor performance last week. My fav story of last week was this:


Bill Ackman's name crops up regularly in the media and on the TV finance channels as a talented investor and his opinions are sought after.

However, it was disclosed he lost $400m by selling Netflex, after only buying it sometime in January for $1.1bn!

Could you lose $400m in losses, from a $1.1bn investment in circa 3 months, before taking action? I think it unlikely.

I admire his fast decision-making, in cutting a bad investment, but as high and mighty as he's regarded, just looking at the state of the trends in Netflix - at the time he bought, never mind from a position of hindsight - at the time he invested!!!

- Makes you wonder about the mindset of some of these guru investor types.

It wasn't an honest error of judgement - instead, it would rank as a textbook pure investor-beginner error.

Reassuring to read of the gurus' feck-up's when depressing things happen in your own portfolios.

What if someone set him up?

Happens all the time. Peeps caressing a company only to pull the rug once everyone's got in.

He will need to look at his friends and analysts who sold him dud info and got misled. Maybe he was the loss leader to suck in other players. Who knows. One body in the know would be Netflix. They will know their subscription and cancellation numbers and what's around the corner. Those Netflix bodies will have golf buddies. Accountants who do the books. Board members etc.

These big investors don't move without some inside info. If you think he buys and sells based on his personal analytical skills outside of consultants, you would be underestimating the amount of insider trading and screwing that takes place in the trading industry imo.
 

IlIlIlIlI

Experienced member
As my computer broke down on Good Friday, I couldn't share the forecast competition the last times.
Today I got it back from the repair shop and I will join it again from the next round.
Just FYI: my forecast for this week would have been higher than @CavaliereVerde's idea for this week.
 

Velo

Junior member
What if someone set him up?

Happens all the time. Peeps caressing a company only to pull the rug once everyone's got in.

He will need to look at his friends and analysts who sold him dud info and got misled. Maybe he was the loss leader to suck in other players. Who knows. One body in the know would be Netflix. They will know their subscription and cancellation numbers and what's around the corner. Those Netflix bodies will have golf buddies. Accountants who do the books. Board members etc.

These big investors don't move without some inside info. If you think he buys and sells based on his personal analytical skills outside of consultants, you would be underestimating the amount of insider trading and screwing that takes place in the trading industry imo.

Hi Atilla,

Even if events occurred as you suggest, two mantra/sayings come to mind for the above situation:

1) You can delegate, but you can't abdicate.

And this next one appeared whilst the media /Boris Johnson/ and the medical establishment were fighting over the correct decision to make during the Covid crisis, as they all had varying positions. I liked this response:

2) Advisors advise, and politicians decide.

So the buck stops with him, Bill Ackman, despite what his advisors advised.

=============

Bad luck IIIIIII.
- Easter! But what about accessing your local library's free public computers for this week's entry? Just a thought.
 

Snowsword

Junior member
Hi Everyone,

First off wellcome to our new forecaster Snowsword :)

Always good to see new forecasters joining the competition. More the better. It is important to have a view on what others are thinking.

This week 17th of the year, we have 7 bears and 3 bulls. CavalierVerde is leading the bulls with a modest 33 point rise for his forecast. Our newcomer Snowsword is the most bearish with another 111 point drop pencilled in.

The average and trend following metrics are all down. Not much of a news week but for the Core Price Index in the states. That should stuff some more fear into inflationary pressures but who knows?

Wishing you all a good trading week.


View attachment 317241
Atilla, thanks. Just find this wonderful forum, good to join you 🤝
 

Atilla

Legendary member
Hi Guys,

I've noticed that the scoring was messed up between Week 15 and 16.

Results end of Week 15 - Link here...
1651258545384.png


This is start of Week 16 - Check column BM - does not match column BP from Week 15 above. Link here...

1651258712822.png


It's the same week when 1nvest spotted incorrect results. I really should have checked them all. Very sorry guys.

I will go back and check them all updating them all now.

Big boo boo... What a mess. :(
 

Atilla

Legendary member
Here is the margin of errors between End of Week 15 and Start of Week 16 taken from above tables.

1651259748364.png


Very sorry for the mistake. I will add the Error column to this weeks Start of Week BM column.
 

Velo

Junior member


Tuesday close was= 4175.2
My offering was . .= 4175

Velo: I WIN! I WIN! :)

----------------

Attilla: (Sighs) But those are all the wrong numbers!

Velo: (Grabbing Attila by the lapels) -
I’m offering all the right numbers, but not necessarily on the right day.
 

Atilla

Legendary member
Our new forecaster Snowsword takes the gold medal this week with his first forecast. (y)👏👏
May your good calls continue. This competition is all about consistency. The winner is usually the one who makes the most consistent forecasts at market closing points. Well done. :)

I get three valuable points taking the silver spot and Velo takes his second podium spot with the bronze. 👏👏


1651331204680.png


The updated and corrected stands as follows.

1651330892323.png


Quarter 2 - League table

1651331547331.png


Great to see my self leading again. Also, I've caught up to CV on the overall running total score too. With the new comers and 1nvest finding his mojo the competition is heating up.

We are in Week 17 with another 35 forecasts to go for the end of the year. It's going to be a turbulent year I reckon. So much money sloshing in teh system, risks and war drums beating the market is heading into choppy seas.


Wishing you all a g8 weekend and sunny days. (y)
 
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Snowsword

Junior member
Well, I think you won but got no points :ROFLMAO:
That's ok, it already exceeds my expectation. I find it pretty difficult to guess the Friday close price. Predicting the lowest or highest weekly price would be easier. I predicted the lowest price should be ~4130, which is very close to the real low🤝
 

Atilla

Legendary member
That's ok, it already exceeds my expectation. I find it pretty difficult to guess the Friday close price. Predicting the lowest or highest weekly price would be easier. I predicted the lowest price should be ~4130, which is very close to the real low🤝

Thanks CV, Snowsword points now updated. I've also pasted the correct new league table up.

Please check your scores as we go along as well and do let me know if anything doesn't look right.

The reason for no scores was that I had copied in a new line and not updated the formula in the cell. All done and dusted now.
 

Velo

Junior member
Yep, Well done Snowsword, Top spot gold on your very first entry - that's :cool:

-----------------------
Just a reminder to all, as I've been there, got the teeshirt on this:
- Don't mistake our markets being closed on Monday as a day off.
The SP500 Index IS trading on Monday as usual. So get your entry ready as per usual.


Another reminder - next week sees the Fed hold its meeting on the 4/5th May.
 
 
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