S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2021

Atilla

Legendary member
19,910 3,163
Hi guys,

Here are the forecasts for this week.

Surprising to see CV sticking to his bearish calls. Bulls v Bears 6 to 1 same as last week.


1636027401248.png


Quick write up re: Fed meeting yesterday evening. I thought it was awful and bore no relation to fact or past experience.

Essentially, it was about tapering and no need for rate rises because inflation is considered to be temporary. Test or condition for raising rates was around inflation and the job market. Whilst the labour market / full employment is not achieved, no real reason to raise rates now. This may sound plausible and reasonable to the layman but in economic terms, it's a pile of pooh imo.

Inflation is already in the system with supply chain and energy shocks. Wages have been going up along with employment. Hence to expect higher levels of employment with lower inflation is just nonsense. Total nonsense even if the supply chain issues are resolved. As for energy prices well they'll have to remain high due to demand and secondly to allow peeps to switch to lower-cost green energy (which at the moment is not lower at all).

Anyhow, made no sense to me. Government finances are in a total mess. Good for markets though. Free money at super low if not negative interest rates. Upwards and onwards we go. (y)
 

Atilla

Legendary member
19,910 3,163
Well done to Oscar Reed who takes his 7th gold medal this week.

The black box android BB_Tfs comes in second place taking silver and Atilla take the bronze bucket.

We've now had 5 x up weeks in a row. Amazing or perhaps not so amazing with so much money sloshing in the system. Big question; will tapering ease the rise in the markets. Well yes obviously it should! Shouldn't it? :)

No pics this week either but here are the results.

1636210780547.png


Coming to the end of the year and we are in week 46 very soon. Just 7 weeks left remaining for the end of the year. Make those forecasts count.

Current league table for Quarter 4
1636210986279.png


Running total table for 2021
1636211156664.png
 
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Atilla

Legendary member
19,910 3,163
Hi Guys,

Here are the forecasts for Week 46 and same again... we have 6 bulls and 1 perma bear CV.

Looks like the last 3 weeks the ratio has remained the same. So sooner or later CV will get another gold.

Wishing you all good prosperous trading and happy days. :)


1636411759838.png
 

Atilla

Legendary member
19,910 3,163
Well done to CV the only bear last week and takes the gold medal on the podium earning precious 4 points.

Rest of us lose 1 point.


1636821156678.png


Quarter 4 League Table

1636821370299.png
 

Atilla

Legendary member
19,910 3,163
4676 for me :)
 

Atilla

Legendary member
19,910 3,163
Sorry should be 4601
Thanks for pointing that out Oscar,

I hadn't read your post correctly before and entered 4601. How crazy is that? I must be ahead of my time.

fwiw guys is anyone looking at Sustainable Aviation Fuel production. SAF. Just recently caught on to the hype and flying with Velocys VLS shares. OMG. :eek: https://www.ii.co.uk/shares/velocys/LSE:VLS 👏👏👍:love:

I'll spread the word in another share blog if I can find a suitable one.
 
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Atilla

Legendary member
19,910 3,163
Sorry for the late forecasts tables chaps, having some probs with the file.

We have one bull - 1nvest and 6 bears.

1637409203833.png
 
 
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