wackypete2
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Peter
Peter
S&P 500 cash weekly competition for 2016 with PRIZES!
- Thread starter postman
- Start date
- Watchers 25
P
postman
Only 5 votes in and there's already a 125 point range in guesses.
We live in interesting times.
We live in interesting times.
P
postman
I'm going with my Bull head on again 1981.
Stocks under pressure, David Bowie, 1981, what else could it be.
Stocks under pressure, David Bowie, 1981, what else could it be.
P
postman
Ok here's a snapshot of last weeks winners and this weeks forecasts.
We have 7 bulls and 4 bears this week. The averages are expecting a move up by roughly 20 points.
The range is an incredible 152 points showing how high the volatility is, as a reference last years average was 84 points.
Leading the bulls is jeffre4 with 2012 and growling in the background is f2calv with 1860.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R_NJwxj-1uXrfjpy_xi-Nn8trkqGik92wtcL28S1FI4/edit?usp=sharing
We have 7 bulls and 4 bears this week. The averages are expecting a move up by roughly 20 points.
The range is an incredible 152 points showing how high the volatility is, as a reference last years average was 84 points.
Leading the bulls is jeffre4 with 2012 and growling in the background is f2calv with 1860.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R_NJwxj-1uXrfjpy_xi-Nn8trkqGik92wtcL28S1FI4/edit?usp=sharing
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Pat494
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I don't want to add to the gloom and doom but .................
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something more ominous? Why the 'January effect' can set the tone for the rest of the year
The FTSE 100 has had the worst start to the year since 2000
80% of the time a good start for the index meant it ended the year on a high
But the trend is weakening with January becoming one of the worst months for stock markets
By Eleanor Lawrie For Thisismoney.co.uk
The stock market has had its worst start in 16 years, with the FTSE 100 down 5.3 per cent last week as the turmoil surrounding the Chinese economy rumbles on.
Is this a temporary blip or will it set the tone for the rest of the year? Market watchers are hoping the month reverses this downtrend so that the 'January effect' takes hold.
This is the trend of the market ending the year on a high, if it has made gains in January.
In the red: The FTSE 100 was down 5.3 per cent in the first week of January but will this set the tone for 2016?
Since the FTSE 100 was created in 1984, research indicates that when the index has risen in January, 79 per cent of the time it has made further gains by the end of the year.
However, this was not the case last year when the market rose in the first month but then fell by 7.51 per cent between February and December.
The FTSE 100 index has risen in the first month of the year in 19 out of 32 years since 1984. In all but four of these, the UK benchmark has climbed higher by the end of the year, suggesting there might be more to this than mere chance.
.
Tom Stevenson, investment director for personal investing at Fidelity International, who compiled the research, said: 'There is an old adage that states "as goes January, so goes the year".
'While the January effect may not have come off last year, it is hard to argue against the statistics which show that a positive January has led to further rises four out of five times during the past 32 years.
'Even when the FTSE 100 has got off to a poor start in January, there's a silver lining for investors. In the 13 years in which the FTSE 100 has had a negative first month, the market reversed that trend on eight occasions, going on to end the year at a higher rate. In five years, the down trend continued for the rest of the year.'
He said: 'Prior to 2000, when we had the dotcom boom and bust, January was easily the best performing month of the year and as markets on the whole tended to rise this supported the January effect. Much of 1980s and 1990s were a bull market for equities so the general trend was upwards.
'However, since 2000 January performance has slumped and it has become the second worst month of the year delivering an average return of -1.88 per cent.
'So in fact, from an investor's perspective we no longer want January to be any indicator of how the year will go. Since 2000 we have seen January be negative 10 times out of 16.'
One reason for these lacklustre January markets could be the retail hangover from the Christmas sales period. This January's sales reports have been particularly underwhelming, with High Street stalwarts Next and M&S both reporting a drop in sales leading up to Christmas. The latter saw clothing sales drop 5.8 per cent in the 13 weeks to Boxing Day.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
something more ominous? Why the 'January effect' can set the tone for the rest of the year
The FTSE 100 has had the worst start to the year since 2000
80% of the time a good start for the index meant it ended the year on a high
But the trend is weakening with January becoming one of the worst months for stock markets
By Eleanor Lawrie For Thisismoney.co.uk
The stock market has had its worst start in 16 years, with the FTSE 100 down 5.3 per cent last week as the turmoil surrounding the Chinese economy rumbles on.
Is this a temporary blip or will it set the tone for the rest of the year? Market watchers are hoping the month reverses this downtrend so that the 'January effect' takes hold.
This is the trend of the market ending the year on a high, if it has made gains in January.
In the red: The FTSE 100 was down 5.3 per cent in the first week of January but will this set the tone for 2016?
Since the FTSE 100 was created in 1984, research indicates that when the index has risen in January, 79 per cent of the time it has made further gains by the end of the year.
However, this was not the case last year when the market rose in the first month but then fell by 7.51 per cent between February and December.
The FTSE 100 index has risen in the first month of the year in 19 out of 32 years since 1984. In all but four of these, the UK benchmark has climbed higher by the end of the year, suggesting there might be more to this than mere chance.
.
Tom Stevenson, investment director for personal investing at Fidelity International, who compiled the research, said: 'There is an old adage that states "as goes January, so goes the year".
'While the January effect may not have come off last year, it is hard to argue against the statistics which show that a positive January has led to further rises four out of five times during the past 32 years.
'Even when the FTSE 100 has got off to a poor start in January, there's a silver lining for investors. In the 13 years in which the FTSE 100 has had a negative first month, the market reversed that trend on eight occasions, going on to end the year at a higher rate. In five years, the down trend continued for the rest of the year.'
He said: 'Prior to 2000, when we had the dotcom boom and bust, January was easily the best performing month of the year and as markets on the whole tended to rise this supported the January effect. Much of 1980s and 1990s were a bull market for equities so the general trend was upwards.
'However, since 2000 January performance has slumped and it has become the second worst month of the year delivering an average return of -1.88 per cent.
'So in fact, from an investor's perspective we no longer want January to be any indicator of how the year will go. Since 2000 we have seen January be negative 10 times out of 16.'
One reason for these lacklustre January markets could be the retail hangover from the Christmas sales period. This January's sales reports have been particularly underwhelming, with High Street stalwarts Next and M&S both reporting a drop in sales leading up to Christmas. The latter saw clothing sales drop 5.8 per cent in the 13 weeks to Boxing Day.
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Atilla
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Pat494
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Are they just headline grabbing for a told-you-so basis ?
But could be worrying. I will be buying in if it tanks to 500 !
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P
postman
It's GOOD news! it means MOAR QE. :clap:
wackypete2
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Pat494
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A small bounce it seems. As it is a long weekend in the US many are reducing their accounts in anticipation of a possible crash imho.
Iran ( yes the US's new pal in the Middle East ) is putting oil on the market cum Monday. That should pull the price even lower.
Half Russia's revenues are from oil, so they are hurting.
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wackypete2
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wackypete2
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It's closed now! Looks like you won!
mike.
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I was expecting you to fire up the spoofing Algo Pete, just to coax it down that last few points...
