New Index Competition Idea


I've come up with an idea for a new competition - not to replace the existing one, but a simple one that could prove to be fun to play and at the same time help to gauge market sentiment for the week ahead.

Essentially it would work like this...

The game would run over 4 weeks (as the exsiting one does).

Each week you would be asked to predict where an index (probably the FTSE 100 or DO) would finish at the end of the week (Friday close) compared with the Close of the Previous Friday. So you have a choice of three options:

1. Higher
2. Lower
3. The Same (+-1%)

Now you can enter your choice from sunday through to thursday night. You only get one choice and you can't change your mind during the week. So what's the incentive of predicting on Sunday close as opposed to Thursday night - when you've got a much better chance of guessing correctly. Well, the difference is the points you get if you're correct, which works as follows:

Points Awarded for Correct Prediction:

Before Monday Open: 5 points
Before Tuesday Open: 4 points
Before Wednesday Open: 3 points
Before Thursday Open 2 points
Before Friday Open: 1 point

If you're worng you don't lose any points, you just don't gain any either.

Additionally to make it more interesting you could make a prediction as to what figure the market will close at on the Friday, and whoever is nearest or within say 10 points get san extra 5 points.

There would be a leaderboard, and scores would be updated at the end of each week - and the winner or winners with the highest number of points at the end of the four weeks would hopefully share a small prize (to be decided).

It's a simple game, but could be a good indicator of market sentiment - as a matter of interest, and a bit of fun at the same time.

Let me know what you think... I propose to start either next Monday or the one after.

Sounds okay Sharks.
Just thought of the ultimate prize.
Get hold of some of those T2W tee shirts or sweat shirts now it's getting colder, and have the winners 'nick' put on the shirt :)

What do you think?

Even if you have to charge a small entry fee to cover costs.


(Hmm, glad I'm not called fart a**e)
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Sounds okay to me as well sharky - but how about maybe another type of competition, in addition to this, where trades are done on indices only. These could consist of the 3 main US indices, and maybe 5 from Europe?
Just an idea, in addition to the one above....
Oh, and if it's the Dow; we will have to handicap Chartman... Take the ball out of his mouse or something.

Like the ideas Options and Dsmondi - as for the tshirts we might even be able to get a sponsor to pay for them. I've been thinking of having a new spreadbetting competition along the lines of the current one but with indices only. Might be more suited to the US where I think it would be possible to get a realtime price feed. But I can tell you there are lots of new things in store over the next few months.
Good news, the competition will begin later today. So check back this evening when you can earn the maximum 5 points by predicting the direction of the DOW market this week.

All members will be able to enter on the front page, at the bottom of the page (later today).

Good luck everyone!

New pie-chart added to the Front Page showing the percentage of members bullish/bearish/neutral against the previous Friday's close.

2 entries so far, and you've just missed out on 4 points (changes at 2:00), but there's still 3 points up for grabs and we're only still in week one of four.

Any questions or suggestions, please add to this thread. Thanks.

The competition is heating up as we approach the end of the first week. Thanks to all the participants for entering - there's still 2 points to gain (1 after 2:00pm tomorrow) if you're willing to make a stab at which way the market is heading.

To make things a little more interesting, I've added a leaderboard table to the front page. As you can see the market closed today at 7755, which is a NEUTRAL movement (ie. within 1% of last Friday's close). So if it remains this way (which I very much doubt!) payneg01 and Wideboy stand to gain 5 points and 3 points respectively, and payneg01 another 5 points for making the closest prediction. All others won't lose anything, but won't gain any points either.

Hope you're enjoying the game!

Can I suggest a change please sharky.

The easiest way to do well in this competion is to wait until Friday to place your bet. This way a player should definitely get 1 point for direction and also has much higher odds of getting the +5 bonus. Doesn't seem fair to those who predict 5 days in advance.

How about the +5 bonus is given to the closest from the 5 days in advance players?
Hi Techmark,

Thanks for your suggestion. Yes, you're quite correct, and it's an issue chartman raised previously too. His solution was to get a multiple of your entry points. So that 5 days in advance receives 5 bonus points, 3 days receives 3 bonus points, and 1 day just 1 bonus point.

I think this is similar to your suggestion in that people who correctly predict days beforehand should be rewarded more.

I'll aim to get this added for the next index competition, when I will also probably make some further additions, features that have been suggested on the boards.

Can't enter a figure in the Dow comp. Sharks.
Couldn't do anything at all last week either.
Hi John,

Thanks for spotting that problem, I've now fixed it, so give it another go and it should hopefully work. Not sure what the problem was last week though. The new scoring system will in place for Mondayweek which is the beginning of a new competition.

Do I not get 5 bonus points for being the nearest to 8583 at the close of play on 02/05/03 ?
Hi Mags_g,

Have now updated last weeks scores. You were right, you had the closest score at the end of the week, so I've had to deduct 4 points from Slippy, and award you 5 extra points - putting you in joint second place. I can see this competition being very close!

I think that's favourtism and sexist and you should be censored by the administrators. It's outrageous :cheesy:
my forecast is 8799 this week
if we reach that tonight, do I get another go ?

No problem. I reached 8750 and have mine in already :(
That's 3 weeks in a row Iv'e been a day early with my predictions. Maybe we should run Monday to Monday.....