FX-2007: Jan 29th > Feb 2nd

[trendie]

wasp,

yes, I have started to look at pin-bars, or dojis, as early indicators as well!!
when I am looking for a pullback to the main trend, there is the doji, sometimes it goes across 2 bars, but it appears to give a good heads-up of ideal entry conditions.
also, a VERY small range bar is also good pointer.

glad someone else is viewing them.
and its "proper" price action stuff"!

but I am trialling them, just to see if I can identify them real-time, rather than after-the-event.

 

[wasp]

hi wasp,

they are definitely worth a look. they can be a risky trade if one doesnt know the setup properly, because instead of a rejection bar, one gets a bar that reflects a breakout and a pullback at the same time.

j

Yeah, the only solution is to wait for the next candle for confirmation of the end result of that candle but then, with 4 hour candles, by the time the next candle is printed its too late! I don't think on its own its good enough to really base major decisions on, not yet anyhow.

 

[jacinto]

Yeah, the only solution is to wait for the next candle for confirmation of the end result of that candle but then, with 4 hour candles, by the time the next candle is printed its too late! I don't think on its own its good enough to really base major decisions on, not yet anyhow.

see chart

edit: look at new chart using lines (closing only). good way of filtering breakout-pullback cases, and suggesting upside

 

[a_gnome]

I never read the forexfactory thread on these but are they what they were referring too in regards too pin bars?

Killing time before NFP and lookin at the 4hr charts, these spikes seemed to be a good % ratio of trends ending and wondered if anyone had looked into ot further?

The ratio comes in for this time period in the chart at 15 /4 . It looks good for exits but not concise enough for entry > exit as it doesn't happen at every change in direction.

Obviously depending on your timeframe and goals, a trend is questionable for each person but based on the crosssover strat I look at, it works pretty well.

Any thoughts or experiences?

Hi Wasp,
Yes, I read through all the (very long) FF thread. The thread's chief guru reckons that the larger the time frame the better the signals. He tends to use daily and weekly signals and he always emphasises having secondary confirmation for the trade (usually Fib levels or MA support/resistance).

For me they certainly give a heads-up that things may be about to change but since I am currently entirely systematic there's not a lot that I can do with the warning!

On another subject, I've looked through your (now finished) journal and find your method interesting. Where is the best place to learn a bit more about it - it seemed to evolve over the course of the journal?

 

[hornblower]

seems we are all waiting for the 1.30 news

 

[wasp]

Hi Wasp,
Yes, I read through all the (very long) FF thread. The thread's chief guru reckons that the larger the time frame the better the signals. He tends to use daily and weekly signals and he always emphasises having secondary confirmation for the trade (usually Fib levels or MA support/resistance).

For me they certainly give a heads-up that things may be about to change but since I am currently entirely systematic there's not a lot that I can do with the warning!

I think you need a second confirmation but that said, I already use MA's and they are good for consistentcy but there is always more pips available. I think I'll look at them in conjunction with Fibs and S/R levels.

The bigger the timeframe is much better and right now I have one on the 4 hour which finishes on 20 mins so will see the result here.........

On another subject, I've looked through your (now finished) journal and find your method interesting. Where is the best place to learn a bit more about it - it seemed to evolve over the course of the journal?

Not sure where you could learn more about my particular methods... It certainly evolved a lot over the course of the journal as well as plenty time prior and since. The only place more info could be found now is my hard drive, head and the thousands of charts in my office! any questions, PM me...

 

[Crap Buddist]

taken a long 674

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

taken a long 674

Oddly, I went short at 674, which probably proves you were right!

 

[Crap Buddist]

Early days yet phil, whats your psychic powers sensing for the afternoon? pop up and drop ? or Up for cable?

 

[djl]

Sitting on sidelines for now, bearish bias. Can't see it breaking $2 just yet, dollar not over and done with...altho been wrong many times before

 

[Crap Buddist]

On this long 74 im just keeping an eye on 665 , see if that holds ,up side 706 if were lucky. Before lunch, which isnt too far off so it may all fizzle out.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Sitting on sidelines for now, bearish bias. Can't see it breaking $2 just yet, dollar not over and done with...altho been wrong many times before

Yeah I like the idea of DC's 511 then the next week or two the run to $2

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

Early days yet phil, whats your psychic powers sensing for the afternoon? pop up and drop ? or Up for cable?

Won't be around for the big news, fortunately or unfortunately, so I'll be flat. Doris Stokes hasn't communicated lately so I'm not sure what will happen. Big up then down, perhaps? Or vice versa, maybe? Or ermm.............

 

[Offshore Trader]

Just a straight up and continuing would be nice. A spike down and reversal is my nightmare scenario but a consistent move would be nice. Spikes are all very well for market makers but pretty difficult to trade.

 

[City Bound]

The annoying thing is that I'm really close to the other side of my BO range (once I've factored in OANDA's inevitable widened spread) so any kind of move up will trigger a stop and reverse. The nightmare scenario would be a blip up and then a drop off a cliff.

 

[wasp]

NFP is always such a gamble though, its not like any other day so you just have to give it the best you can toyour plan and accept 50/50 is generally the best odds you'll get. Its such an unpredictable one normally...

 

[jacinto]

i hate NFP days. used to love them before, but now hate them.

j

 

[wasp]

Yeah me too, they used to be easy now I find them 50/50...

Oh well, one way its money, the other its down the pub early, can't complain with either really

 

[djl]

Yeah a few months back they were a one-way street now they are whip saw potential suicide material

 

[jacinto]

Yeah me too, they used to be easy now I find them 50/50...

Oh well, one way its money, the other its down the pub early, can't complain with either really

yep, its just like trading a wolfe wave :cheesy: