FX-2007: Jan 29th > Feb 2nd

[trendie]

An NFP week.

NB: need a better eco-calendar, so it is more readable, like in a grid or sumpfink.

This Week's Calendar
Date 7:20am Currency Impact Actual Forecast Previous Detail

Sun.
1/28 6:50pm JPY Retail Sales y/y -0.6% -0.2%
6:50pm JPY Large Retailers' Sales y/y -1.9% -0.8%

Mon.
1/29 6:00am GBP CBI Distributive Trades Realized 20 25
4:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m -12.0%
6:30pm JPY Overall Household Spending y/y -1.2% -0.7%
6:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0%
6:50pm JPY Industrial Production m/m 0.4% 0.8%
7:30pm AUD NAB Business Confidence 6
9:00pm NZD M3 Money Supply y/y 15.5%

Tue.
1/30 2:00am GBP Nationwide House Prices m/m 0.8% 1.2%
Tentative EUR German CPI m/m (p) 0.2% 0.8%
4:00am EUR German Retail PMI 55.2
4:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 10.6B 10.8B
8:30am CAD IPPI m/m 0.5% 0.0%
8:30am CAD RMPI m/m 0.4% 0.9%
10:00am USD Consumer Confidence 110.5 109.0
4:45pm NZD Trade Balance -0.42B -0.79B
6:00pm EUR French Unemployment Rate 8.7% 8.7%
6:30pm JPY Manufacturing PMI 53.1
8:30pm JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 0.5% 0.2%

Wed.
1/31 12:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y 9.0% 4.0%
2:00am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 1.5% -0.7%
3:55am EUR German Unemployment Rate 9.7% 9.8%
5:00am EUR CPI m/m (p) 2.1% 1.9%
5:30am CHF Leading Index m/m 1.55 1.60
5:30am GBP Consumer Confidence -8 -8
8:15am USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 135K -40K
8:30am USD GDP Annualized q/q (p) 3.0% 2.0%
8:30am USD GDP Deflator Annualized q/q (p) 1.7% 1.9%
8:30am CAD GDP m/m 0.3% 0.0%
10:00am USD Chicago PMI 52.0 51.6
10:00am USD Construction Spending m/m -0.1% -0.2%
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.7M
2:15pm USD Interest Rate Statement 5.25% 5.25%

Thu.
2/1 2:15am CHF Trade Balance 1.0B 1.30B
3:30am CHF Svme PMI 64.7 65.0
3:55am EUR German Manufacturing PMI 59.0 59.4
4:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 51.9 51.9
8:30am USD PCE Price Index m/m 0.0%
8:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.0%
8:30am USD Personal Spending m/m 0.7% 0.5%
8:30am USD Personal Income m/m 0.5% 0.3%
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 315K 325K
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Index 51.6 51.4
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 47.2 47.5
11:30am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
4:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m 0.6%
6:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y -20.0% -20.0%
7:30pm AUD Trade Balance -950M -843M

Fri.
2/2 4:30am GBP Construction PMI 57.0 57.5
5:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.0% 0.0%
8:30am USD Nonfarm Employment Change 146K 167K
8:30am USD Unemployment Rate 4.5% 4.5%
8:30am USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.4% 0.5%
10:00am USD Consumer Sentiment (r) 98.0 98.0
10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m 1.6% 0.9%

 

[Priceman]

Hi there chaps, not sure how much posting or trading I will be doing now for a while with the arrival of the little lad! Good luck to all and I'll pop in now and then between feeds etc

 

[trendie]

congratulations, Priceman on your new arrival.
(though I suspect Mrs Priceman should get some of the credit as well)

take care, and dont worry, the market will always be here for you when you get back.

 

[jacinto]

congrats! priceman. excellent news mate.

J

 

[Crap Buddist]

Hi there chaps, not sure how much posting or trading I will be doing now for a while with the arrival of the little lad! Good luck to all and I'll pop in now and then between feeds etc

You know what to do with those sleepless night feeds? Stick the bottle in and do some USD/JPY scalps.

I'll do the night shift tonight honey!

All the best.

 

[dc2000]

congratulations Priceman on the arrival of your baby. Just another four to go then you can start your own boy band "The Priceman five" "Jolly Priceman and the wailers"

 

[hornblower]

Hi there chaps, not sure how much posting or trading I will be doing now for a while with the arrival of the little lad! Good luck to all and I'll pop in now and then between feeds etc

Congratulations on the birth of your son
life will never be the same again
kind regards
Hornblower

 

[ChowClown]

Priceman, congrats to you both - a great journey's ahead.

 

[fibonelli]

Priceman, warmest wishes

 

[Priceman]

Chaps, that's really kind of you all thanks. We don't even know each other but I really appreciate it.

Now then, just got back in from the hospital and going to eye up tomorrows action and try to walk away from the screen with limit orders let's see if I really have got any clue about this cable beast ! See I didn't miss a lot on Friday then? Did have the short going Thursday night but closed it out as thought it had bottomed. Then all hell broke loose at 0330 (waters breaking not on the markets) and didn't get a look in.

Looking for long opportunities.... 10 or 20 pips will do I don't want to be too greedy.

Anyhow best of luck and talk soon

 

[hornblower]

Morning all
Is this morning the base of the C down wave ?

 

[jacinto]

morning all

Im expecting a ranging session until after 16:00GMT. 4hr triangle, expected time to breakout between 16 and 20 GMT.

bias is most certainly south, yet with triangles, one has to wait for it to break to get direction.

j

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

Gone long on cable at 573 hoping for another wave past 600. (Cue dramatic downspike.)

 

[dc2000]

still biased and positioned long

 

[City Bound]

Short got triggered at 574 this morning. I don't hold out much hope though.

 

[dc2000]

one more time for the masses, just so you know stop level at 40 if it hits I look for the B/E @562

 

[jacinto]

morning all

Im expecting a ranging session until after 16:00GMT. 4hr triangle, expected time to breakout between 16 and 20 GMT.

bias is most certainly south, yet with triangles, one has to wait for it to break to get direction.

j

triangle broken, but appears to be forming a new triangle, now descending. Since the move is down into the consolidation pattern the bias is down. However, with triangles, one needs the breakout to confirm direction.

missed breakout time by a lot, still expect consolidation to continue into this new triangle, so sitting on my hands.
j

 

[a_gnome]

Morning all,
Firstly congrats to Priceman on his new arrival.

Last week VEBO Variant basically trod water: making a little and giving it back again. It seems that it requries the occasional huge move to make all its profits in - the rest of the time it is 2 steps forward and 2 steps back. Rather frustrating to trade but that's system trading - you do it for the profits not the excitment.

FYI it's currently still short from 19670 odd from Thursday last week.

Good luck to all this week.

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

Scraped up a few points earlier, but I've changed my mind about today's trend. Now short.

 

[Offshore Trader]

I wish I'd known Jacinto was going to be this accurate as I don't trade normally after 4. Short but as it doesn't look as it's going to go anywhere, I'll probably just take the small loss and have another go tomorrow unless we see a move in the next 30 minutes