FX-2007: Apr 08nd > Apr 13th

[rav700]

I guess I thought I would start of the thread for this week
I wish all of you the best of luck in your trading and hope you have had a fantastic easter... :cheesy:

Sun.
4/8
Mon.
4/9 All Day ALL Holiday: Easter
6:00am JPY Eco Watchers Survey 49.2
11:00pm NZD NZIER Business Confidence 3
Tue.
4/10 12:30am AUD Construction PMI 51.7
2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 12
Tentative JPY Interest Rate Statement 0.50% 0.50%
Tentative JPY BOJ Governor Fukui Speaks
6:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 2.9% 3.0%
7:00am EUR German Trade Balance 15.4B 16.2B
7:00am JPY Machine Tool Orders y/y 16.5%
7:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.5% -0.3%
2:30pm USD Fed Governor Mishkin Speaks
Wed.
4/11 12:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 3.9% 3.3%
12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -0.4% 3.9%
12:50am JPY M2+CD Money Supply y/y 1.0% 1.1%
12:50am JPY Current Account 2.2T 1.19T
7:00am EUR German Wholesale Price Index m/m 0.5% 0.4%
7:00am JPY BOJ Press Conference
7:45am EUR French Trade Balance -2.8B -2.8B
1:15pm CAD Housing Starts 214K 196K
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 4.3M
3:30pm GBP Leading Index m/m 0.3%
6:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu.
4/12 12:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance 22% 24%
12:50am JPY CGPI m/m 0.1% 0.0%
1:30am USD Chicago Fed President Moskow Speaks
2:30am AUD Employment Change 15.5K 22.0K
2:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 4.6% 4.6%
9:30am GBP Trade Balance -6.4B -6.2B
10:00am EUR GDP q/q (r) 0.9% 0.9%
10:00am EUR GDP Forecasts
12:45pm EUR Interest Rate Statement 3.75% 3.75%
1:30pm USD Import Price Index m/m 0.7% 0.2%
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 318K 321K
1:30pm CAD New Housing Price Index m/m 0.3% 0.3%
1:30pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
11:45pm NZD Retail Sales m/m 0.5%
11:45pm NZD Core Retail Sales m/m 1.0%
Fri.
4/13 7:45am EUR French CPI m/m 0.4% 0.2%
10:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m 0.4% -0.2%
1:30pm USD PPI m/m 0.7% 1.3%
1:30pm USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.4%
1:30pm USD Trade Balance -60.2B -59.1B
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance 6.1B 6.4B
3:00pm USD Consumer Sentiment (p) 87.5 88.4
Tentative EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks

 

[rav700]

The dollar pushes higher from its session lows, following a better than expected US jobs report, but the resistance remains in line within the constraints mentioned in our earlier strategy piece ( EUR 1.3360, USDCAD 1.1530 and GBPUSD 1.9630 ).

The 180K increase in non-farm payrolls was largely above consensus forecasts of 120-130K, and the unemployment’s rate decline to a 4.4% from 4.5% was the key highlight of the report. The 4.1% jobless rate matched October’s figure, which was the lowest since May 2001. Average hourly earnings slowed to 0.3% from 0.4%, with the year on year rate at 4.1% from 4.0%. Previous upward revisions totaled 32K, when the February figure was revised to 113K from 97K, and the January revised to 162K from 146K

From the surface, today’s report seems to thwart any expectations of a H1 rate cut. But the report merits a closer look. The bulk of the recovery took place in construction jobs, which created a net 56K jobs, following a net decline of 61K in February. Improved weather conditions in March may have a been a factor in the construction payback but evidence of continued structural weakness in the sector remains dominant.

The 16K decline in manufacturing jobs is the 9 th consecutive monthly decline in the sector, which is in line with the weak employment component of the ISM manufacturing falling below 50 in 5 out of the past 7 months.

The net slowdown in services jobs to 137K from 180K drives down the 3-month moving average to 148K, the lowest level since July 2006.

Although the near doubling in retail jobs education/healthcare to 36K and 54K helps stabilize conditions, we’re not sure about the durability of these jobs, many which are temp and part-time.

While the establishment survey of today’s report shows gains that appear largely unsustainable, the household survey’s unemployment rate presents a strong argument against any upcoming Fed easing. The Greenspan has never cut rates without a consistent increase in the jobless rate, with the exception of the 1998 rate cuts, which were largely a result of market conditions (LTCM and EM crisis) rather than macro economic weakness.

The US yield curve is flattening once again as 2-year yields climb to 4.73%, narrowing the gap with 10-year yields at 4.75% to 2 bps from 8 bps prior to the report.

USD optimism may extend into another thin session in Monday, but sentiment should retreat ahead of next week’s FOMC minutes, which could shed more detail on the Committee’s thinking about the deterioration in the housing market.

Our morning call issuing a negative GBPUSD outlook remains in play as the pair drops from 1.9700 to 1.9640s. We could see 1.9620 before the end of the session.

USDJPY breached our resistance of 119.20, now eyeing the 119.50 retracement. 119.80 remains a possibility into next week.

EURUSD nears our 1.3360 support, a breach of which calls up 1.3320 at which point stability is expected ahead of next week’s ECB meeting, which should lift back the pair towards the 1.3360s.

USDCAD’s recovery remains capped under the 1.1530 resistance. A breach of the figure is seen short-lived at 1.1555, until we revert towards the 1.1510-20s as traders eye the 200 day MA.


Ashraf Laidi

 

[rav700]

My Targets for this week are a clean 150 pips.....
The three pairs I will be trading are
GBP\USD
USD\JPY
GBP\JPY

My thoughts for these pairs are as follows for this week

GBP\USD---one more attempt to break the 715 mark on failure back to 620 support
USD\JPY---A solid attempt to break 119.50 if successful then we should see 120.35
GBP\JPY--I am pretty convinced that this is going to blast out of its range and attempt 237 in a couple of days...strong support @ 234....

How will I trade ...No Long positions only scalping......

Currently I want to go long on both
USD\JPY
GBP\JPY
On the market open
I will wait for the GBP\USD to show me the way.....

Happy Trading
Best of Luck
Rav

 

[rav700]

Currently USD\JPY Quoted @ 119.19....
I will probably go long on market open and my target is 119.39 My stop @ 118.85...
Still awaiting direction on other trades..
I will be trading market gaps if any as well...

Happy Trading
Rav

 

[Priceman]

Rav, thanks for setting up the thread this week. You should get away from the screen though mate. Take a break and don't look at all until late tomorrow night or early Tuesday. Don't want any of that quitting nonesense again, need your fresh happy input.

I am in the process of analysing the mr.marcus's chart from the last FX thread and will post my thoughts sometime tomorrow. Continue the great easter break peeps.

 

[Uphios]

Stuff the easter break. Dullest couple of days I have spent in a long time. Wife has me tidying, cleaning out the garage and cutting grass. Thank heavens the markets don't take Monday off.

 

[rav700]

Rav, thanks for setting up the thread this week. You should get away from the screen though mate. Take a break and don't look at all until late tomorrow night or early Tuesday. Don't want any of that quitting nonesense again, need your fresh happy input.

I am in the process of analysing the mr.marcus's chart from the last FX thread and will post my thoughts sometime tomorrow. Continue the great easter break peeps.

Good Advice.....

Uphios........buddy try and hide.......Thats why I have a tradestation which I can hide behind without any problems...................

Hope you have a good week guys :cheesy:

 

[hornblower]

The dollar pushes higher from its session lows, following a better than expected US jobs report, but the resistance remains in line within the constraints mentioned in our earlier strategy piece ( EUR 1.3360, USDCAD 1.1530 and GBPUSD 1.9630 ).

The 180K increase in non-farm payrolls was largely above consensus forecasts of 120-130K, and the unemployment’s rate decline to a 4.4% from 4.5% was the key highlight of the report. The 4.1% jobless rate matched October’s figure, which was the lowest since May 2001. Average hourly earnings slowed to 0.3% from 0.4%, with the year on year rate at 4.1% from 4.0%. Previous upward revisions totaled 32K, when the February figure was revised to 113K from 97K, and the January revised to 162K from 146K

From the surface, today’s report seems to thwart any expectations of a H1 rate cut. But the report merits a closer look. The bulk of the recovery took place in construction jobs, which created a net 56K jobs, following a net decline of 61K in February. Improved weather conditions in March may have a been a factor in the construction payback but evidence of continued structural weakness in the sector remains dominant.

The 16K decline in manufacturing jobs is the 9 th consecutive monthly decline in the sector, which is in line with the weak employment component of the ISM manufacturing falling below 50 in 5 out of the past 7 months.

The net slowdown in services jobs to 137K from 180K drives down the 3-month moving average to 148K, the lowest level since July 2006.

Although the near doubling in retail jobs education/healthcare to 36K and 54K helps stabilize conditions, we’re not sure about the durability of these jobs, many which are temp and part-time.

While the establishment survey of today’s report shows gains that appear largely unsustainable, the household survey’s unemployment rate presents a strong argument against any upcoming Fed easing. The Greenspan has never cut rates without a consistent increase in the jobless rate, with the exception of the 1998 rate cuts, which were largely a result of market conditions (LTCM and EM crisis) rather than macro economic weakness.

The US yield curve is flattening once again as 2-year yields climb to 4.73%, narrowing the gap with 10-year yields at 4.75% to 2 bps from 8 bps prior to the report.

USD optimism may extend into another thin session in Monday, but sentiment should retreat ahead of next week’s FOMC minutes, which could shed more detail on the Committee’s thinking about the deterioration in the housing market.

Our morning call issuing a negative GBPUSD outlook remains in play as the pair drops from 1.9700 to 1.9640s. We could see 1.9620 before the end of the session.

USDJPY breached our resistance of 119.20, now eyeing the 119.50 retracement. 119.80 remains a possibility into next week.

EURUSD nears our 1.3360 support, a breach of which calls up 1.3320 at which point stability is expected ahead of next week’s ECB meeting, which should lift back the pair towards the 1.3360s.

USDCAD’s recovery remains capped under the 1.1530 resistance. A breach of the figure is seen short-lived at 1.1555, until we revert towards the 1.1510-20s as traders eye the 200 day MA.


Ashraf Laidi

Hi Rav
good summing up
thanks

H

 

[rav700]

Hello,
Everybody....
I am currently short on the AUD\USD pair and am waiting for a retracement...
My Current trade is Short @ .8169.with a stop @ 8210 I think we could see the 8000 pretty soon ie the next week or so....will keep you updated on this trade...

Happy Trading
Rav

 

[Atilla]

Hello,
Everybody....
I am currently short on the AUD\USD pair and am waiting for a retracement...
My Current trade is Short @ .8169.with a stop @ 8210 I think we could see the 8000 pretty soon ie the next week or so....will keep you updated on this trade...

Happy Trading
Rav

Hi everyone, on this nice sunny day... What a marvellous start to the new week.

Just recouped back the loss on GBPJPY from Fridays open short pos. Now wondering weather to sit tight and take the fall further.

I have Cable touching 1.9590 regions before a bounce. Maybe 1.9575. But not too sure. I think after my weekend lessons I'll revert back to being cautious again. Easier on the old ticker...

I think SPX will rise after Friday's NFP stats though. Gold has perked up after a little fall. Difficult to guage what's going on. What I would like is for the SPX to take a little drop before attempting another high not making it and the full retrace from March to be delivered to shake up the markets. Wishful thinking indeed... :cheesy:

I thought your NFP stat breakdown was very interesting Rav. It puts a different perspective on the housing market.

Good trading everyone...

Just closed my position on GBPJPY at 233.84 and opened up a long on cable at 1.9613.

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Also just entered a short position on the EUR/USD @ 1.3354 (exit 1.3280) stop (1.3394)



TPF

Trade closed (stop) (-40)

Exit Reverse @ 1.9730 (-+0) Sold @ 1.9730


This is now for the anticipated NC in BoE rates.



TPF

GBP/USD trade still open currently trading @ around 1.9610 (+120)






Been away over the long weekend and now ready for what this weeks trading will bring.

Like to see what the Asian trading overnight will reveal before I make any firm trading decisions for the week ahead.

I see nothing at present to suggest any change in my previous thoughts of an overall drop in cable to around the 1.94 levels over the next few days.


Good trading.

TPF

 

[pipper]

Hi everyone, hope you all had a good holiday.

I am still long on the USDJPY and am now up 160 pips! This is one of the longest positions I have ever held, and I must say, I don't hate it. lol

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

GBP/USD trade still open currently trading @ around 1.9610 (+120)








Like to see what the Asian trading overnight will reveal before I make any firm trading decisions for the week ahead.

I see nothing at present to suggest any change in my previous thoughts of an overall drop in cable to around the 1.94 levels over the next few days.




TPF

The “unimaginable” is now “imaginable”



Closed GBP/USD short trade @ 1.9608 (+122)


Looking to re-enter a new short position on a rebound to 1.9650 -1.9670 after initial failure much below 1.9600




TPF

 

[rav700]

The “unimaginable” is now “imaginable”
Closed GBP/USD short trade @ 1.9608 (+122)
Looking to re-enter a new short position on a rebound to 1.9650 -1.9670 after initial failure much below 1.9600
TPF

Good Trade TPF

I like your reposition trade....

Best of luck for the rest of the week...

Rav :cheesy:

 

[rav700]

I think there is world war 3 going on other threads....I will leave them guys to it lets concentrate. on our thread
Update on my positions....
I currently had 2 positions one closed on is still open...
I had a trade in long on USD\JPY @119.20 as I did not get in at 119.19 and my target was 119.39..
in the end I came out @ +16 pips profit
My AUD\USD is still open @ 8169 @ +0 currently running profit...

Pips for the week =+16
Total Pips left = 134
Profit Trades=1
Loss Trades=0
B\E=0

Happy Trading
Rav

 

[Hook Shot]

Hello,
Everybody....
I am currently short on the AUD\USD pair and am waiting for a retracement...
My Current trade is Short @ .8169.with a stop @ 8210 I think we could see the 8000 pretty soon ie the next week or so....will keep you updated on this trade...

Happy Trading
Rav

We could see test of 8000 this week but I favour more upside testing first...
The highs of 1996 are not a million miles above 8200 (~8230) so we're in the right ball park.

This baby looks very bullish mid/Long term 8500 even 9000 ???
Does that mean oil/gold go crazy too ??

Getting ahead of myself as usual lets wait for a positive pullbk near 8000 to go long... ?

 

[rav700]

Hello Hookshot...
I am in great spirits this week...
I have a modest target of 150 pips and hope to achieve without any losess fav last words...
I have got my eye set on
EUR\JPY @ 160
GBP\JPY@ 235
Cable dont really know at the momment...
I hope your trading goes well

Rav

 

[Hook Shot]

Hello Hookshot...
I am in great spirits this week...
I have a modest target of 150 pips and hope to achieve without any losess fav last words...
I have got my eye set on
EUR\JPY @ 160
GBP\JPY@ 235
Cable dont really know at the momment...
I hope your trading goes well

Rav

Same to you Rav
Euro/Yen particularly juicy this week - could be a big contibutor for you :cheesy:
Take Care

 

[rav700]

Currently short @ 24 on cable am looking for 10 pips scalp trade stop @ 44
Best of luck
Rav

 

[Atilla]

Currently short @ 24 on cable am looking for 10 pips scalp trade stop @ 44
Best of luck
Rav

I'm still long on cable. Looking for 1.9640-50 regions.

See what you mean about WW3 on

"That cable chart:come and have a go if you think your hard enough... "

At least I assume you mean that one.

Reads like Trader rage... We'll be on the news soon. :cheesy: