ES Unfair Advantage

dario1

Newbie
1 0
"Nothing splendid has ever been achieved except by those who dared believe that something inside them was superior to circumstance." Bruce Barton




This will be a "work in progress" post as we progress on the work! We have an area of bare ground in the ES market that has to be truly understand.

Certain price moves or swings can happen in respect to the time of the day and I believe there is some kind of correlation between time of the day and price movement. This is why I've started this thread to see if other traders noticed similar market behaviour. Also, I'll post trade examples to convey the message.

So traders, I'd like to hear from you. Discussion is vital -- without it, there will be no progress
Reply below and let me know what do you think, and please correct me if I'm wrong.


All hours are in Eastern Time (ET)

6:00PM Global Market starts

6:00PM - 8:00PM
market usually slow -- develops its trading range

8:00PM - 10:00PM
price volatility is expected due to opening of the Asian markets

10:00PM - 12:00AM
no input yet

12:00AM - 2:30AM
market usually slow

2:15AM - 3:00AM Pre- London Market
resumption of the overall night’s trend


3:00AM - 4:30AM
Europe morning move


4:30AM - 6:30AM
price volatility is expected due to opening of the European markets


6:30AM - 6:59AM
market usually slow


7:00AM - 9:30AM
pre- US market opening volatility
sometime depends on the early key news or leak of the succeeding news
be careful, one can get fleeced very easily


9:25AM - 9:35AM
US market opens -- sometimes huge volatility


9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day (!!!)
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day

If trend/bias cannot be readily distinguished please use the 10:00-10:45AM Morning Move as a daily trend reference.


10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
– expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one.
in other words: expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes


10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move
– expect either:
1) A counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move if there was no move (or undesired move) from 10:00am to just before 10:45am, or
2) A resumption of the of the NY Opening Hour Move


11:45AM - 12:45PM Lunch Move
any volatile move very rarely emerges during this time
-- take a break that's what lunch time is all about -- regenerate for the afternoon session


12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
– expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias) if:
1)the overall trend is UP and the market is trading DOWN off the high of the day, or
2)the overall trend is DOWN and the market is trading UP off the low of the day.


2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
– expect either:
1)A resumption of the day’s trend if there was no move (or undesired move) from 1:00pm to just before 2:00pm, or
2)A counter-trend move of the day’s trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect either:
1)A counter-trend move of the day’s trend, OR
2)A resumption of the day’s trend if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm and the market is trading down off of the high of the day in an uptrend or up off the low of the day in a downtrend
--in other words expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm


3:30PM - 4:16PM Closing Hour Move
Expect rally if...


3:50PM - 4:00PM NY market closing volatility -- sometimes huge


4:30PM - 6:00PM
market usually slow


Traders!
I'd like to hear from you guys.
Reply below and let me know what do you think?

Bear in mind, traders are the only force that can act on prices to make them move and if more of them will be willing to follow the particular moves the higher the probability of the market momentum to shift in their direction.
cheers
 
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