FX-2007: Apr 02nd > Apr 6th

[trendie]

First quarter gone. Hope you had a good first 3 months.

Has been ranging for past 6-8 days, so are we due for a breakout?
Will it be quiet as we go into Easter week?

I have found the USDCAD has a rather wide spread relative to its daily moves, so dont trade it. Do others trade USDCAD seriously?
(I tend to look at the combos of USD/GBP/YEN and sometimes EUR)
Might be worth seeing what other pairs are popular, amongst this congregation.

eco-news source: http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

Note: have highlighted the High Impact news in bold-blue.

Mon.4/2
(Note: first figure is FCST, second figure is PREV)
1:30 AUD Retail Sales m/m High Impact Expected 0.8% 0.9%
1:30 AUD Building Approvals m/m Low Impact Expected 0.5% -0.9%
5:00 JPY Vehicle Sales y/y Low Impact Expected -8.3% -8.7%
7:30 CHF SVME PMI Medium Impact Expected 63.1 63.5
7:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI Medium Impact Expected 57.5 57.2
8:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI Low Impact Expected 55.6 55.6
8:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Medium Impact Expected 55.0 55.4
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Index High Impact Expected 51.3 52.3
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Medium Impact Expected 60.0 59.0
16:30 USD St. Louis Fed President Poole Speaks Medium Impact Expected
23:50 JPY Monetary Base y/y Medium Impact Expected -22.0% -21.1%

Tue.4/3
1:30 AUD Trade Balance Medium Impact Expected -1.25B -0.88B
5:45 CHF CPI m/m Low Impact Expected 0.2% 0.2%
8:30 GBP Construction PMI Low Impact Expected 57.5 57.3
8:30 CHF KOF Media Conference Medium Impact Expected
9:00 EUR PPI m/m Low Impact Expected 0.3% 0.1%
Tentative USD Domestic Vehicle Sales Low Impact Expected 12.8M 12.8M
23:01 GBP Consumer Confidence Index Medium Impact Expected 85
23:30 AUD Interest Rate Statement Medium Impact Expected 6.25% 6.25%
23:30 AUD Services PMI Low Impact Expected 54.5

Wed.4/4
7:55 EUR German Services PMI Low Impact Expected 57.5 57.2
8:00 EUR Services PMI Low Impact Expected 57.6 57.5
8:30 GBP Services PMI Medium Impact Expected 57.5 57.4
9:00 EUR Retail Sales m/m Low Impact Expected 1.0% -1.0%
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders m/m Low Impact Expected 0.6% -1.0%
12:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change High Impact Expected 125K 57K
12:30 CAD Building Permits m/m Low Impact Expected -8.5% 11.3%
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Medium Impact Expected 54.8 54.3
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Low Impact Expected 53.0 53.8
14:00 USD Factory Orders m/m Low Impact Expected 1.9% -5.6%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories Low Impact Expected -0.9M

Thu.4/5
8:30 GBP Industrial Production m/m High Impact Expected 0.2% 0.1%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m Medium Impact Expected 0.3% -0.2%
10:00 EUR German Industrial Production m/m Low Impact Expected -0.4% 1.9%
11:00 CAD Employment Change High Impact Expected 12.0K 14.2K
11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Medium Impact Expected 6.1% 6.1%
11:00 GBP Interest Rate Statement High Impact Expected 5.25% 5.25%
12:30 USD Unemployment Claims Low Impact Expected 314K 308K
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Medium Impact Expected 61.0 60.5
23:01 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Low Impact Expected 0.5%

Fri.4/6
All Day ALL Holiday: Good Friday Low Impact Expected
5:00 JPY Leading Index m/m Low Impact Expected 40.9%
6:45 EUR French Budget Deficit Low Impact Expected -5.5B
10:00 EUR Composite Leading Indicators m/m Low Impact Expected 109.3
12:30 USD Nonfarm Employment Change High Impact Expected 125K 97K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate High Impact Expected 4.6% 4.5%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m Medium Impact Expected 0.3% 0.4%
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories m/m Low Impact Expected 0.4% 0.7%
19:00 USD Consumer Credit m/m Low Impact Expected 5.5B 6.4B

 

[rav700]

Good Afternoon all,

Thanks trendie for starting of the forum I was thinking of doing this myself...but I was going to give it till 2:00....Anyways A new week....

This should be a very interesting week for us with lot of swings either way........All I can say is be careful.....
What are my thoughts on this week.....Well

I first of all think we shall see a massive drop down to 600.........This is my gut feeling............
I have a short currently @ 682 with a stop @ 726 I am expecting a run to the 600 by close of play Monday..
I will be moving stop to break even once we hit the 55 zone

This week I am trading the GBP\JPY and EUR\JPY
I am waiting for the Tankan Report which is due out @ 23:50 tonight and this will give me some direction..
These are my thoughts.....

As soon as the tankan report comes out.............
GBP\USD = Down
EUR\USD = Down
GBP\JPY = Down( Be careful as breakout is a very high possibility)
EUR\JPY = Down( Be careful as breakout is a very high possibility)

Happy Trading All,
As far as cable goes.....I hope this week we can get some better movement......
I have a target of 250 pips for this week....
The Pairs I am trading are Gbp\usd,Gbp\jpy and eur\jpy

Best of Luck

Rav

 

[rav700]

GBP:

Trading Channel: 9550 - 9735 {Try range trading}
Sell below: 9550 for 9400 first target and 9240 second target
Buy above: 9735 for 9915 first target and 2.0150 second target

EURO:
Trading Channel: 3410 – 3250 {Try range trading}
Sell below: 3250 for 3070 first target and 2860 second target
Buy above: 3410 for 3660 first target and 3800 second target



JPY:
Trading Channel: 116.50- 118.50 {Try range trading}
Sell below: 116.50 for 115.75 first target and 114.40 second target
Buy above: 118.50 for 119.50 first target and 120.60/122.15 second/third target

Happy Trading
Rav

 

[Uphios]

Trendie, I have traded USDCAD a lot in the past and GBPCAD even more. Got a decent lump of funds tied up in Canada so still carrying a long GBPCAD at 2.0000. I don't really see it as a profit until I repatriate my Canada funds. USDCAD I used to trade on those days I couldn't see anything moving much and then go in large on this pair, unfortunately it can move enough now and then to make this strategy a little dangerous but good on most days because even when I got the direction wrong it would often return to entry level later in the day

Currently short on GBPUSD from the 7's which I feel is good, didn't think I would get the chance again. I don't really believe the action on Friday that put it up there, second time in a week that a weak excuss has been used to clobber the dollar. However, must take on board that somebody wants it up there and if they find a half valid excuss it looks like it will take off to the 2's.

Looking to avoid any further commitment to GBPUSD for the time being until things become clearer to me. Had a little success with USDJPY but I feel that has been somewhat lucky dip. Prefer the success I have had on the swissie which has been making some reasonable moves and more or less sensible, with the backup that an overnight long is giving me 2 pips a day in 'interest'.

Whoops, my mistake I was thinking of my overnights on USDJPY, swissie is on 1 pip per night.

 

[wasp]

Woohoo! NFP week again, I wonder if we can beat last months 30 pips!!!!!

 

[Uphios]

Woohoo! NFP week again, I wonder if we can beat last months 30 pips!!!!!

Whoooooooo! I spy a rare Wasp. Tell me, what is this system you use that allows you so much time away from your screen?

 

[wasp]

Whoooooooo! I spy a rare Wasp. Tell me, what is this system you use that allows you so much time away from your screen?

Now you know I can't tell you that! I'm only here now as I'm in the UK visiting family and the novelty is wearing off!!!!

 

[Uphios]

Now you know I can't tell you that! I'm only here now as I'm in the UK visiting family and the novelty is wearing off!!!!

Come on, just post here on the board and I promise not to tell anybody

 

[wasp]

Hahahahaha! No!

 

[rav700]

I first of all think we shall see a massive drop down to 600.........This is my gut feeling............
I have a short currently @ 682 with a stop @ 726 I am expecting a run to the 600 by close of play Monday..
I will be moving stop to break even once we hit the 55 zone
Rav

It could even go down to the 530 in the 2nd hour.......

I dont know Why but I am certain that This market will dive as soon as it opens...

As I said My target is 250 and there will be no trading after that.....

Happy Trading
Rav :cheesy:

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Hello all.

I am new to this forum. Been reading with interest.


My money is on for a move higher.

I’ll be in at the open, looking for an exit tomorrow at around 1.9760


("Just instinct " before anybody asks the obvious)



TPF

 

[rav700]

Welcome to the boards Mr Pearl Fisher
I wish you the best of luck in fading me......Atleast you will make pips if rav dont.....

This week I am expecting to be in full form after the awful week I have had last week

Happy Trading
Uphios I hope you are in My friend........

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

Sorry rav, I'm with Pearl Fisher on this one, although I managed to get it completely wrong by shorting on Friday just before the mad move upward. Perfect timing, wrong direction!

 

[rav700]

Sorry rav, I'm with Pearl Fisher on this one, although I managed to get it completely wrong by shorting on Friday just before the mad move upward. Perfect timing, wrong direction!

No Sorries required....
As I said I am waiting for this fall in the first couple of hours......
I am hoping for a gap on the open and I will be going long if it does not go my way.......
Let me explain my trade Currently I have a short @ 82 ---My Max loss if it does go the wrong way is -42 but I will open a long position if it does go above my stop and reverse my trade.....

Happy Trading
Rav
:cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

2 Faders on the list now.....It seems like Rav is in trouble...

Rav Vs 2

 

[Uphios]

No Sorries required....
As I said I am waiting for this fall in the first couple of hours......
I am hoping for a gap on the open and I will be going long if it does not go my way.......
Let me explain my trade Currently I have a short @ 82 ---My Max loss if it does go the wrong way is -42 but I will open a long position if it does go above my stop and reverse my trade.....

Happy Trading
Rav
:cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

2 Faders on the list now.....It seems like Rav is in trouble...

Rav Vs 2

2 v 2 Rav. Yes, I'm still short and plan to stay that way for a bit. Stops at 730 but I will not be going long for a while yet. Will however re-instate shorts at 730 on a move back down should I get taken out. Will be well into Monday before I consider a long.

 

[Uphios]

Looking like GBPUSD is going to open around 1.97

 

[rav700]

Looking like GBPUSD is going to open around 1.97

Thats what I can see as well...hmmm

 

[Uphios]

Early yet, no real market so I'm gonna watch the box for an hour or so. Laters.

 

[rav700]

Tankan Report @ 23:50 Guys Just thought I would remind you again

 

[Uphios]

Tankan Report @ 23:50 Guys Just thought I would remind you again

I've got 12:50 am on Forex factory.