FTSE 100 intraday trading - JULY 2003

hungrybear

Active member
209 0
bonsai,

I agree with you. There are multiple issues which suggest there can't be much upside to this market, though unlike the Dow & S&P, the Ftse and particularly the Dax have already had strong corrections, so rangebound between say 4500 (max) and the low 3000s seems likely for some time. This also suggests a flat correction. I have a similar target to you for the Ftse at around 2500 - I'm not at my main computer so can't check it, but it's a key support and fib level. I don't expect this to be hit until 2006.

The issue we face is how best to trade the market and if we're right in the sideways trading range at least we're then part-way to considering appropriate strategies. For instance, Bollinger Bands are likely to be very appropriate in determining at least short-term points, but Fib levels wil be difficult to project unless the wave count is clear, which it isn't when a market's trading in a range. Any other thoughts on this would be appreciated!
 

bonsai

Veteren member
4,106 11
agree fibs may not be too reliable in that environment
and oscillators may have their day although of long duration.
but I would expect trend lines to continue to be useful
while one side or the other holds sway.

we had a similar period after the 87 crash although it was
inverted because there was an underlying bull strentgh.
( I counted the crash as an A)

if the current rally is an A then the fall will be a B.
They are notoriously difficult , imo and many many people
will lose money yet again unless they have a road map of sorts.

Unfortunately Elliott is the only one that seems to have value.
 

bonsai

Veteren member
4,106 11
Ah !
thank you God !

lol

time for lunch
 

2468steve

Experienced member
1,076 39
bonsai,HB
Interesting thread.Doesn't this show tho' that it is difficult to determine exactly what wave we're in,and can only determine this once the following wave has started.
 

cguesty

Junior member
17 0
I agree with you on that 2468steve, EW is good for narrowing down the possibilities, but it's price action that determines which one is correct. It's then a question of building a strategy that allows you to profit from that knowledge
 

bonsai

Veteren member
4,106 11
agree with both of you.

remind me not to have lunch.
lunch is for whimps they say.
come back and its up 30 !
 

hungrybear

Active member
209 0
2468steve, to an extent yes. EW is always clear after the event. However, there are also times when the path is clear. Now isn't that time, but impulsive waves, particularly wave 3, and either wave 2 or 4 retracements often are (either wave 2 or wave 4 is a 'simple' abc). Equally, when the count isn't clear, and waves are overlapping, it's also possibly to determine that the market is in a correction mode, so whilst EW can't be used clearly, it does help in determining the potential market moves.

Personally, I like EW but only find it useful in conjunction with other tools. Fib analysis works well with EW, but I use a 30 MA on 2min & 5min and Stochastics for day trading
 

2468steve

Experienced member
1,076 39
HB,
thanks for reply.But where do you know where to take your first wave from?
 

bonsai

Veteren member
4,106 11
ok elliot fans. How about something live ?
from the previous high 184 until now
who reckons we have seen an A with a very quick B with C just
started ?
 

bonsai

Veteren member
4,106 11
I did suggest it might be more volatile today.

what do you think of it so far ?

:LOL: :LOL:

scalpers xmas ?
 

2468steve

Experienced member
1,076 39
Bonsai,
we have wave A,into down wave B,then into up...........no hang on,down....yeah right first time,up wave C......doh,now supercycle stage 1 down.....I really must get a handle on this EW.

Cheers
 

mully

Established member
967 3
Who cares what EW is saying or not saying!!!!. Are we making money. Interestingly, FTSE held support at 4115, had retest and has since gone better. On a short term basis that must be seen as a positive.
 

bonsai

Veteren member
4,106 11
I have the dow up 133
and ftse up 18

?

I would suggest the risk is that dow tops out at 9400
overnight.

and the big boys may be waiting.
but are not prepared to push ftse up to a new high.
 
 
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