Interesting to see all the different possibilities for the Ftse. I hadn't considered the flat correction. I don't think this is likely as the Ftse hit a precise 61.8% retracement on March 12th (from all time high back towards opening price). This suggests it was an impulsive corrective wave - ie most likely either the A-wave or a complete ABC (unlikely). If it's the A-wave, then we're currently correcting the complete drop from the 1999/2000 highs, in which case the current correction should have some time left in it - should be a time correlation with the main wave down.
There is also likely to be a correlation with Wall St markets, which are unlikely to crash before the 2004 election. There is also the correlation, albeit with a 10 year time lag, to the Japanese bear market, which had a long correction at this stage. All this points to the Ftse currently being in wave a of an abc correcting the wave 4 A wave down from 2000. In that respect, the a-wave for the Ftse can be either 3 or 5 waves!
All IMO of course and I'll be ready to change it if action says otherwise. In any event, the high is either in or will be in within a few weeks, then it should be down for most of the remainder of this year.
I dont like the flat correction much either
mainly because the fall to 3277 looks more like a natural fall to the low. I have that marked down as the end of C making BIG A.
What ever the wave count is for the subsequent rally to where we are now, I think we are in for a whole series of rather large
rolling corrections for some, maybe many years.
and new lows along the way.
With interest rates already at lows and inflation not an issue
I can see no engine for growth on the horizon and the number
and weight of stale bulls grimly hanging on is intimidating.
I also dont think there is much if anything the politicians can
do about it.
And the current Gordon tax policies on things like Pension funds have virtually killed that market.