ok , see where your'e coming from.
and you could be right but
3 waves are usually strong and the climb was I think,
very measured , slow , and was slowly losing momentum ?
also I am uncomfortable with the 1/2 count.
it just doesnt feel right.
Unfortunately I dont think my own wave count is clear cut either.
You need to look at an hourly chart but I have your 3861
as the end of 3 and the fall to 3613 as 4.
Which makes the whole of the subsequent move the 5th
and is still in progress.
And when that 5th finishes , it will be an A wave with B and C still to come.
Well I'm still dowm £300.00 on the month
but I feel I'm learning, slowly, thanks to you guys. I actually made a few points (8) this morning on that break down(Avalanch?) at 08:52 from 4130 to 4120 on the FT Future.
1)Have learn't the importance of cutting losses very quickly(I'ts took me nearly five years messing with options to learn this!).
Not a very quick learner am I? LOL.
2)Not to try and guess an entry( because I can't afford many misstakes)
3) Gradually learning to wait for mrkt to signal me, and not the other way round.......this I find the hardest thing!
I have searched the web but I cannot find anybody he
sounds confident about their own count.
That is unusual in my experience.
I have an alternative which is the expanded flat correction
That starts at 4450 last aug with ABC down to 3277 making A
and we are now in a B
I quite like that because B waves are notoriously confusing
and there is a single stair tread right at the start of A so
we may well retest that high.
And just when everybodyis proclaiming the worst is over BANG.
thank you all for helping me to improve my knowledge.
I have this crazy thought of mine .
every where the talk is we are in a bear market and a new bull has started/underway. What i am thinking is we are still in a macro bull market ,and we had the wave 2 down in 1987 and currently wave4down from 2000 highs.still wave 5 to come but it will be a failed 5. then abc correction to last for few years.
Then we are looking to start the bear market which will last for a while.
The reason is if we are in a bear market how come we are still trading in high valuations.And dow has'nt even touched 50%retracement.
It took nikkei to fall from 40000 to under 8000 in 20 years.
in between we had a big bounce from 20000 to 30000 before the falls to <8000
My problem with EW is that its like alcohol to an acoholic. EW feeds the very basic human need to have order/certainty. It is great in retrospective but highly distorting in real time. I have alot of sympathy with Piper's view of EW. If you can see a very clear 5 waves then take notice and expect (no assurance mind you) that a correction is due. Otherwise be very cautious towards it. What is wrong with basic support/resistence? KISS. Why confuse the picture. In my experience, dabbling in EW only fuels my need to find order. It is great fun after hours, but not for real life!