FTSE 100 intraday trading - JULY 2003

sumathik

Junior member
31 1
Hi bonsai
I am a learner still . so my wave counts should be taken with a pinch(buckets )of salt. well as i look at it

wave 1 up 3287- 3861
wave 2 dn 3861-3613
wave3 up 3613-4207(4219 intraday)
wave4 dn 4207-3954
wave 5 my tagets 4189/4261/4338/4558
but because we have extended wave 3 wave 5 could truncate/fail

i am still vary of reaching 4558 because this level could the ultimate target of this run.

appreciate your input.

sumathik
 

bonsai

Veteren member
4,106 11
ok , see where your'e coming from.
and you could be right but
3 waves are usually strong and the climb was I think,
very measured , slow , and was slowly losing momentum ?

also I am uncomfortable with the 1/2 count.
it just doesnt feel right.

Unfortunately I dont think my own wave count is clear cut either.
You need to look at an hourly chart but I have your 3861
as the end of 3 and the fall to 3613 as 4.
Which makes the whole of the subsequent move the 5th
and is still in progress.
And when that 5th finishes , it will be an A wave with B and C still to come.

Anybody else want to join the hazards ?
 

taxibrod

Newbie
6 0
Good Morning Gentlemen,

Well I'm still dowm £300.00 on the month
but I feel I'm learning, slowly, thanks to you guys. I actually made a few points (8) this morning on that break down(Avalanch?) at 08:52 from 4130 to 4120 on the FT Future.

1)Have learn't the importance of cutting losses very quickly(I'ts took me nearly five years messing with options to learn this!).
Not a very quick learner am I? LOL.

2)Not to try and guess an entry( because I can't afford many misstakes)

3) Gradually learning to wait for mrkt to signal me, and not the other way round.......this I find the hardest thing!

Anyway Lads, Thanks, keep up the good work.

Ian(taxi)
 

sumathik

Junior member
31 1
hi done it again sorry
1up 3777-4185
2dn4185-3287
3up 3287-3861
4dn3861-3613
5up3613-?

if we have subwaves of wave5
again1up3613-4011(15/5)
2dn 4011-3980 (not happy with this count )
3up 3988-4207(18/6)
4dn 4207-3964
5up 3964-?

I am doing it from end of the day data feed so you will have better counts from hourly charts.

still i am looking for pull back soon
then abc??
 

bonsai

Veteren member
4,106 11
suma
my count starts with 3277 middle of march.

reactor

gaps not really anything to do with elliott which is a different approach/concept.
 

cguesty

Junior member
17 0
Hi Sumathik, interesting counts.

One point, in that last count of yours you have

1up 3777-4185
2dn4185-3287

But your wave 2 cant go past (3287) the begining of wave 1 (3777) ... that's one of Elliot wave rules.

The only way of counting 3777 as the low would be as an expanded flat correction.

I'm going to try and post a chart of my 2 pence worth, but bit busy at the moment.
 

bonsai

Veteren member
4,106 11
I have searched the web but I cannot find anybody he
sounds confident about their own count.
That is unusual in my experience.

I have an alternative which is the expanded flat correction
cguesty mentioned.
That starts at 4450 last aug with ABC down to 3277 making A
and we are now in a B
I quite like that because B waves are notoriously confusing
and there is a single stair tread right at the start of A so
we may well retest that high.
And just when everybodyis proclaiming the worst is over BANG.

The C wave may go to 2468.
 

sumathik

Junior member
31 1
thank you all for helping me to improve my knowledge.
I have this crazy thought of mine .
every where the talk is we are in a bear market and a new bull has started/underway. What i am thinking is we are still in a macro bull market ,and we had the wave 2 down in 1987 and currently wave4down from 2000 highs.still wave 5 to come but it will be a failed 5. then abc correction to last for few years.
Then we are looking to start the bear market which will last for a while.
The reason is if we are in a bear market how come we are still trading in high valuations.And dow has'nt even touched 50%retracement.
It took nikkei to fall from 40000 to under 8000 in 20 years.
in between we had a big bounce from 20000 to 30000 before the falls to <8000

Does it make any sense
 

mully

Established member
967 3
My problem with EW is that its like alcohol to an acoholic. EW feeds the very basic human need to have order/certainty. It is great in retrospective but highly distorting in real time. I have alot of sympathy with Piper's view of EW. If you can see a very clear 5 waves then take notice and expect (no assurance mind you) that a correction is due. Otherwise be very cautious towards it. What is wrong with basic support/resistence? KISS. Why confuse the picture. In my experience, dabbling in EW only fuels my need to find order. It is great fun after hours, but not for real life!
 
 
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