FTSE 100 Intraday trading - August 2003

[bonsai]

well ok but not until I have a system that tells me
if the next tick is up or down let alone tomorrow's close.

lol

 

[hungrybear]

Due to work committments I'm generally taking a slightly longer term view.

I currently think the Ftse's peaking (today or tomorrow) and will drop back substantially for a few weeks. This is based on stochastics, Bollinger Bands, EW and time cycles. I hr stochastics (50 time periods)have worked really well recently. You can't pick the precise top or bottom, but they've been great for predicting the multi-day turns.

 

[bonsai]

maybe barjon is the man for this.
I see a hammer at the start followed by 3 white soldiers.

it has to mean something ?

 

[hungrybear]

I'm not into hammers and soldiers; is it a war game?

Just had a call from a friend who's been successfully trading for some years (many more than me). He thinks the Ftse will break the June high this week to complete the current bull phase, then drop heavily into next year - FWIW.

 

[Lambchops]

I have looked at a trend following method where you can buy/sell the high/low of the previous 4 five minute candles. Has anybody tried this or variations of it - 5-10 five minute candles etc.

 

[hungrybear]

Yes - I use a similar method using 2min bars and a 30MA line. The combination works well as it follows the trend. On trendless days it obviously fails!

 

[bonsai]

as nobody else has posted it, there was a lower high
on macd at 97

 

[barjon]

afternoon all - been elsewhere.

bonsai - yes a nice hammer to start things off although didn't
take it until over the gain line with macd support. Added
on the 2 failed shooting stars, cut and run before usa cock
crow. Nice day. I'm not in the retreat from 200+ tho' - are
you?

Good trading

jon

 

[bonsai]

no, I didnt take it.
still don't stop and reverse.

anyway until it breaks 1 day fairly decisively it may well
go up again.

 

[barjon]

bonsai

do you always take a full stop or do you run a part position on?


jon

 

[bonsai]

a long time ago, I phoned my broker to lighten my holding
in a particular stock - Racal -
He asked me why I was only selling half.
I said I wasnt sure about future direction.
So he then asked me why was I continuing to hold any if
I wasnt confident about future direction.
So I sold the remainder.

And because Racal dived the next day, I now carry this
emotional baggage around with me.
Of course, others may call it good advice but that's not the point.

 

[barjon]

ah - those were the days. Friendly, useful brokers (and bank managers) who knew their business and their clients.

 

[bonsai]

It was a rural/provincial broker and they used to care about keeping clients.
Used to hold open evenings and discuss the market over
a sandwich and a g&t.
Of course it helped that their Chief Clerk and I used to play for the
same cricket club.

 

[barjon]

I had one of those - much more fun than pressing buttons on
a computer. But those looking for a $2.50 round trip would have
had a fit at the commission costs.

 

[bonsai]

lol
but it was much more a buy and hold world then, it seems to me.

 

[barjon]

memories, memories - but back to business.

positive that 185 area held over last two hours (resistance
becomes support)? DOW permitting of course.

 

[bonsai]

The feeling is that we are creeping up but on my hourly chart
the rally looks almost vertical and of course, overbought.
I get the distinct feeling the sellers are only standing back
waiting for their moment. But they may have to wait.
4400 really doesnt look that far way but neither does 4000.

 

[barjon]

bonsai

Tomorrow should be interesting imo. The day candle is a shooting
star(ish) which, if confirmed by a lower opening, should welcome
in a down day (to fib50 @ around 126?? if not stopped by your
150). Alternatively, a failed shooting star by virtue of a higher
opening and/or an initial upward move beyond 203 should be positive
for more, particularly since 185 held well throughout the afternoon
today.

We'll see.

Good trading

jon

ps where are we on the wave count?

 

[bonsai]

Tomorrow ?
I see FTSE has come back from a high of 4212 and is now quoted
at 92/96. So even during the Dow run, they were not prepared to
push the market beyond the previous high and are now quoting
below todays high.
I think this implies that the mm's will not gap up through 4204
but make the buyers buy through resistance.
Are the buyers prepared to do that ?
I dont know. But if they werent prepared to do it tonight, why would they start by doing it first thing tomorrow ?

On the wave count, I havent seen anything that looks like a 4th
during this current rally, so maybe tomorrow? while we wait for
the dow to open.
It would give us the chance to work off some of this overbought
situation.

 

[bonsai]

this looks corrective don't you think.
so back to 147 ?