Currency trading (Sep 25th - 29th)

[Priceman]

In Wasps absence I thought I would start this weeks thread, I hope he's ok with that (as well as all of you too) as I can't yet fill his shoes on the success front

Let's get to it guys ! Good trading to all for the week ahead

 

[rav700]

Good Evening All

Let start trading.....
My thought for the week ......
I think We should see some good downward movement....
My initial thought on cable are as follows.....
I see the fall from the current 1.9000 region to 1.8865 region....Reason My Techincal Analysis...
I am back on cable trading full time and am going to start pipping from tonight...
I will post my live trade on here all suggestion are welcome....
If you do follow my trades please note.....I am not a guru and My aim is 100 pips a week
I do sometimes leave trades open over night but that depends.....
My TA....I tend to use RSI,MA,Vegas 1H and trend lines.....

I tend not to complicate things too much......

US Event for the week:

Sep 25, 14:00 GMT United States Existing Home Sales 6.33 M 6.25 M
Sep 26, 14:00 GMT United States !! Consumer Confidence 99.60 p 103.00 p
Sep 27, 12:30 GMT United States !! Durable Goods Orders -2.40 % 1.00 %
Sep 27, 14:30 GMT United States ! Crude Oil Inventories -2848.00 K
Sep 28, 12:30 GMT United States Initial Jobless Claims 318.00 K

I see there should be a beautiful slide down 150 points at least.....
My Stop loss on all trades are generally 40 pips....

Best of luck evey body happy pippin....

Rav :cheesy:

 

[Priceman]

Actionforex.com economic calendar for the week

Monday, Sep 25, 2006
GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
-- EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (SEP P) -0.3% -0.1%
-- EUR German CPI (YoY) (SEP P) 1.1% 1.7%
-- EUR German -EU Harmonised (MoM) (SEP P) -0.3% -0.1%
-- EUR German - EU Harmonised (YoY) (SEP P) 1.2% 1.8%
6:45 EUR French Business Confidence Indicator (SEP) 108 109
6:45 EUR French Production Outlook Indicator (SEP) 4 6
6:45 EUR French Own-Company Production Outlook (SEP) 10 13
13:15 USD Fed's Fisher to Speak in Mexico on US Economy -- --
21:30 USD Geithner Speaks on Panel About Role of New York Fed -- --
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (AUG) -732.5M -744.7M
22:45 NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (AUG) 3.55B 3.76B
22:45 NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (AUG) 2.87B 3.01B
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price (MoM) (AUG) -- 0.0%
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (AUG) 0.0% -0.1%
Tuesday, Sep 26, 2006
GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
6:00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (AUG) -0.1% 1.2%
6:00 EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (AUG) 5.3% 6.3%
6:45 EUR French Housing Starts (3M) (YoY) (AUG) -- 4.8%
6:45 EUR French Housing Permits (3M) (YoY) (AUG) -- 14.7%
8:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (AUG) -- 1.881
8:00 EUR Liikanen Presents Latest Central Bank Economic Outlook -- --
8:00 EUR Italian Hourly Wages (MoM) (AUG) 0.2% 0.5%
8:00 EUR Italian Hourly Wages (YoY) (AUG) 3.1% 3.0%
8:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate (SEP) 104.3 105.0
8:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment (SEP) 108.4 108.6
8:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations (SEP) 100.5 101.5
8:30 GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) (2Q F) 1.7% 1.7%
8:30 GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (2Q F) 4.2% 4.6%
14:00 USD Fed's Bies Testifies on Basel II At Senate Banking Hearing -- --
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence (SEP) 103.0 99.6
14:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (SEP) 7 3
17:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence -- -15
21:00 AUD Conference Board Australia July Leading Index -- --
-- NZD Westpac Consumer Confidence (3Q) -- 106.0
Wednesday, Sep 27, 2006
GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
06:10 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (OCT) 8.6 8.6
07:30 EUR Italian Business Confidence (SEP) 94.4 94.4
08:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUL) 0.10% 0.10%
08:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) 1.60% 1.30%
08:00 EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (AUG) 7.50% 7.80%
08:00 EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. 3 mth average (AUG) 7.90% 8.30%
08:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F) 0.80% 0.80%
08:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q F) 2.60% 2.60%
08:30 GBP Current Account (BP) (2Q F) -8.0B -8.3B
08:30 GBP BBA releases August UK Mortgage Lending Figures -- --
09:30 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (SEP) 2.42 2.42
10:00 GBP CBI September Distributive Trades Report (SEP) -- 12
11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (SEP) -- 2.00%
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (AUG) 0.70% -2.40%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation (MoM) (AUG) 0.40% 0.50%
14:00 USD New Home Sales (AUG) 1050K 1072K
14:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (AUG) -2.10% -4.30%
14:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks 9/22 -- -2.8M
14:30 USD EIA Gasoline Stocks 9/22 -- 0.6M
14:30 USD EIA Distillate Stocks 9/22 -- 4.1M
23:50 JPY Large Retailers' Sales (YoY) (AUG) -1.10% -1.70%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (AUG) -- -1.70%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (AUG) 0.10% -0.20%
00:45 USD Fed's Hoenig Speaks on Economy Policy in Nebraska -- --
01:30 AUD Job vacancies (AUG) -2.50% 7.30%
03:00 NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (MoM) -- 12.40%
Thursday, Sep 28, 2006
GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
04:45 JPY BoJ Deputy Governor Iwata speaks at Euromoney Conference -- --
5:00 JPY Small Business Confidence (SEP) 49.9 49
6:00 EUR German ILO Unemployment Rate (AUG) 7.9% 7.9%
6:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (SEP) 0.4% 0.8%
6:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP) 7.0% 6.6%
6:45 EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F) 1.1% 1.1%
6:45 EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q F) 2.6% 2.6%
7:00 EUR ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell Speaks at Bundesbank Forum -- --
7:00 USD Fed's Minehan Speaks in Poland on Economic Education -- --
7:30 EUR Italian Retailers' Confid. General (AUG) -- 106.5
7:30 EUR Italian Services Survey (SEP) -- 33
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (000's) (SEP) -25K 5K
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate (s.a) (SEP) 10.6% 10.6%
8:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance Non-Eu (Euros) (AUG) -1250 -1501
12:30 USD Fed's Plosser Gives Welcome Remarks to Media Seminar -- --
12:30 USD GDP Annualized (QoQ) (2Q F) 2.9% 2.9%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ) (2Q F) 3.3% 3.3%
12:30 USD Personal Consumption (2Q F) -- 2.6%
12:30 USD Core PCE (QoQ) (2Q F) -- 2.8%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 315K 318K
12:30 USD Continuing Claims -- 2461K
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (AUG) -0.2% 1.7%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (AUG) -1.5% 5.2%
12:30 CAD Average Weekly Earnings (MoM) (JUL) -- -0.3%
13:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (SEP) -- -33.9
14:00 USD Help Wanted Index (AUG) 32 32
22:00 EUR French Unemployment Rate (AUG) 8.9% 8.9%
22:00 EUR French Unemployment Change (000s) (AUG) -20K -29K
22:45 NZD Building Permits (MoM) (AUG) -- 15.1%
22:45 NZD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q) 0.6% 0.7%
23:30 JPY Jobless Rate (AUG) 4.1% 4.1%
23:30 JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (AUG) 1.10 1.09
23:30 JPY Japan Manufacturing PMI (SEP) -- --
23:30 JPY Overall Hhold Spending (YoY) (AUG) -1.2% -1.3%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI s.a. (MoM) (SEP) -0.3% 0.5%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food s.a. (MoM) (SEP) 0.1% 0.0%
23:30 JPY Tokyo Consumer Prices (YoY) (SEP) 0.6% 0.9%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (SEP) 0.0% 0.0%
23:30 JPY National Consumer Prices s.a. (MoM) (AUG) 0.4% -0.1%
23:30 JPY National CPI Ex Fresh Food s.a. (MoM) (AUG) 0.1% 0.0%
23:30 JPY National CPI n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG) 0.9% 0.3%
23:30 JPY National CPI Ex Fresh Food n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG) 0.3% 0.2%
23:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (AUG P) 2.0% -0.9%
23:30 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG P) 6.0% 5.1%
0:00 AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (AUG P) -- 0.6%
0:00 AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (AUG P) -- 3.8%
1:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (AUG) 1.1% 1.2%
1:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (AUG) -- 14.8%
Friday, Sep 29, 2006
GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
4:00 JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (AUG) -- 8.2%
5:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (AUG) -1.2% -7.5%
5:00 JPY Annualized Housing Starts (AUG) 1.251 1.209M
5:00 JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (AUG) -- -20.10%
5:45 CHF SECO September 2006 Economic Forecasts -- --
6:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG) 0.8% -1.5%
6:00 EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (AUG) -0.3% 0.0%
6:30 EUR ECB's Stark Speaks in Warsaw -- --
6:40 EUR French Consumer Confidence Indicator (SEP) -24 -25
6:50 EUR French Producer Prices (MoM) (AUG) 0.1% 0.1%
6:50 EUR French Producer Prices (YoY) (AUG) -- 3.9%
8:00 EUR Italian PPI (MoM) (AUG) 0.3% 0.9%
8:00 EUR Italian PPI (YoY) (AUG) 6.7% 6.9%
8:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (AUG F) -- 0.8%
8:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (AUG F) -- 13.7%
8:30 GBP M4 Sterling Lending (BP) (AUG F) -- 18.5B
8:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit (AUG) 0.8B 1.1B
8:30 GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (AUG) 10.0B 9.8B
8:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals (AUG) 121K 120K
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (SEP) 1.20 1.28
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence (SEP) 1 2
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (SEP) -8 -8
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (SEP) 106.3 106.7
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (SEP) 19 19
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (SEP) 1.9% 2.3%
9:00 EUR Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) (SEP P) 0.0% 0.2%
9:00 EUR Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) (SEP P) 2.2% 2.2%
9:00 EUR Italian CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (SEP P) 0.5% -0.2%
9:00 EUR Italian CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (SEP P) 2.2% 2.3%
9:30 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (SEP) -7 -8
12:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (AUG) 0.3% 0.5%
12:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (AUG) 0.2% 0.8%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator (YoY) (AUG) 3.2% 3.4%
12:30 USD PCE Core (MoM) (AUG) 0.2% 0.1%
12:30 USD PCE Core (YoY) (AUG) 2.4% 2.4%
12:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (JUL) 0.1% 0.0%
13:30 EUR Bundesbank President Weber Speaks at Conference -- --
13:45 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (SEP F) 85.0 84.4
14:00 USD Fed's Poole Speaks on `Data Dependence' -- --
14:00 USD Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (SEP) 56.0 57.1
17:00 USD Fed's Moskow Gives Remarks at Conference -- --

 

[Priceman]

Interesting article here for the week ahead;

http://www.actionforex.com/forex_an...dollar,_rebound_in_swiss_franc_2006092411131/

Rav, good luck, simple is my favourite way of looking at things. I do not know exactly what will happen this week but I will follow the simple signals given to me from the market.

 

[rav700]

Thanks Price Man...Lets Make some pips together........................Best of luck :cheesy:
Getting my shorts ready

 

[dc2000]

Evening chaps

Im also looking for a short position this week but will wait for a better price I may even be tempted with an early long

 

[rav700]

Evening chaps

Im also looking for a short position this week but will wait for a better price I may even be tempted with an early long

My thoughts exactly cos it bounced of my RSI 50 need it to pull below that for a nice short...
I guess we may have one more visit too 55-60 region before it pulls down the cherries.....
Will have to wait for the right signal

 

[rav700]

My thoughts exactly cos it bounced of my RSI 50 need it to pull below that for a nice short...
I guess we may have one more visit too 55-60 region before it pulls down the cherries.....
Will have to wait for the right signal

Just as I said the 55 -60 region.

Still got a bit of strength....another 10 pips I reckon...

 

[Priceman]

Morning all, I have my boss back in town this week so not much trading for me

have a look at this chart, I think I'm getting this price action malarky... good trading to all

 

[rav700]

A felix Alert

September 25th, 2006 (10:00 am New York Time) USA
We have Existing Home Sales coming out of U.S. Due the U.S. being aggressive with the interest rates this year, the housing sales became a lot more important than usual, since they are expected to decline as the interest is being raised. Last month the Existing Home Sales came out at 6.33 versus 6.62 from the month before. This month the consensus is at 6.2 million, however a worse than expected number is already kind of expected and won't create as much price move as if the number comes out much better than expected. So if the number comes out at 5.8 million or below, which would be about 530K worse from previous month's number, I would go long on GBP/USD. An even slightly better number than previous month should be bullish for the dollar, so I won't be looking for as much deviation on the upside. So if the number comes out at 6.4 million or more, that would be a surprise since it would be better than previous month, and if that happens, that should be good for th e dollar, so I would go short on GBP/USD. I am only looking for about 30-50 pips move on this one, depending on the deviation. If the numbers are very close to my triggers than 30 pips, if a bit away from my triggers than could be as much as 50 pips. If the number comes out WAY BETTER than expected, we could see a move as much as 80+ pips. When I say way better, than means like 6.7 million or higher. Just remember, the trend on GBP/USD now is up, so if you go short, just remember, that some people will be looking for a dip to buy GBP/USD to go with the general trend, so if you go short, make sure to take your profits as quickly as you find reasonable depending on the deviation.

 

[dc2000]

by then I should be out of the market only wanting 60 pips today so at 9011 Im done until the morning

 

[rav700]

by then I should be out of the market only wanting 60 pips today so at 9011 Im done until the morning

I got a really good position right at the top 67.........currently sitting @32 will it go down any further just waiting for my indiacotrs to give me a signal...................
But 38 pips aint bad is it :cheesy:

Also move my stop to +30

So a per my target only 70 more pips to make for my 100

Happy trading DC2000 best of luck

 

[rav700]

I got a really good position right at the top 67.........currently sitting @32 will it go down any further just waiting for my indiacotrs to give me a signal...................
But 38 pips aint bad is it :cheesy:

Also move my stop to +30

So a per my target only 70 more pips to make for my 100

Happy trading DC2000 best of luck

Just the +30 got stopped out

 

[zuke]

Morning all just got a SHORT 9032, Stop 9079, Limit 8920

 

[ChowClown]

...32 short for me too, from a BO.

 

[dc2000]

thats me done for now, I may be tempted with the 9027 to 8973 if it comes before lunch

 

[Offshore Trader]

Not having a good day today. Broadband connection was down and then input wrong big figure to trigger my Cable breakout trade. Now short though

 

[rav700]

Just another one....

Stop @1.9073
Short @1.9033
Limit 1 @ +15
Limit 2 @ +15
Limit 3 @ +15

***Lets see how this goes..

Happy Trading

Rav

 

[rav700]

It is hardly moving is my connection................................
For the last hour cable has been stuck between 20 and 30....
Will it eva move...........

 

[rav700]

Stop @1.9073
Short @1.9033
Limit 1 @ +15
Limit 2 @ +15
Limit 3 @ +15

***Lets see how this goes..

Happy Trading

Rav

Trade stop set @+5