Brexit and the Consequences

[cantagril]

Thank you cantagril for two excellent posts providing real insight into France's history and what makes French men and women tick. What I find particularly interesting is that they highlight the absurdity of the idea that we are all European and that broadly speaking, English, French, Germans and Italians etc. are all pretty much the same. We're anything but, IMO. I've spent a fair bit in time in Spain over the last 20 years and the more I get to know it and the more I understand what makes Spaniards tick - the more I realise just how different they are to us Brits. And that's a good thing - not a bad thing. Therein lies the fundamental fault with the EU project and why I believe it will fail sooner or latter. You simply can't remove or replace what it is to be French from a Frenchman, or Spanish from a Spaniard or English from an Englishman etc., etc. These national identity traits are hard wired in at birth: they are to be celebrated and enjoyed, not diluted and homogenised. To attempt to do the latter - as the EU appears intent on doing in a vain attempt to turn us all into 'Europeans' - is at best misguided and at worst sheer folly.
Tim.

Whilst of course I am basking in your praise I can only partly agree with you. Yes, a few years ago whilst in Spain with Mme. CantagriI I was somewhat disconcerted when we were held at gun point by the Guardia (un)Civil for some imagined transgression.... but we were able to part with smiles all round and I put the brandishing of weapons down to an excess of Hispanic zeal...or too much Rioja at lunch. My wife was a little less sanguine though and somewhat tetchy on the rest of the journey.

As to whether the EU "project" will fail or not is a different matter. In Europe we are already Europeans and think of ourselves as such. I have both Swedish and German relatives and when we meet I am aware that we are all conscious of this shared european identity - please note the lower case "e" there. What none of us think we are doing is becoming less French, Brit or German etc and it seems to me that the fear of homogeneity as an aim is mostly a UK invention.

To my mind the EU is clumsy attempt to create a federation along the lines of the monarchical associations and alliances that were in place before the first war. I am not a fan of any artificial construct and the gradual rapprochement that was taking place when it was only the EEC (of a far fewer number of states) was actually a pretty good start to an mostly organic process that might have led to a union of federated states in 50 to a 100 years. The current political turmoil in Europe (and I include the UK here) is a result of Donkeys leading Donkeys without a Lion in sight. Modern democratic systems don't favour the ascent or lengthy tenure of competent technocrats whilst the climate IS perfect for populists. The UK's specific problem there is that there are no sufficiently popular populists(!) nor are there any competent and trustworthy leaders extant so the Donkeys have nobody at all to turn to. We arrived at this destination through a ham-fisted implementation of a democratic tool that ironically would be perfectly suited to a continental European context... such as Switzerland and France. There shouldn't have been a referendum in the first place and secondly it should have been designed so that any action would have needed a clear and unequivocal majority rather than the ridiculous margin that has allowed Brexiteers and Remainers to squabble like fishwives. If we were ever to leave it should have been a subject for a general election and subsequent parliamentary process.

Whatever people might think here and however much the temperature rises across the ditch Europe is not suddenly going to cease to exist because the EU is in bicker-mode and the UK has thrown a tantrum. Things will have to get considerably worse for a disintegration of the current EU and I would hazard that we will be seeing a fair amount of horse trading over the next few months which will reduce that likelihood.

Anyway, a plague o' both your houses!

 

[cantagril]

This is a sincere question, in your opinion, do the yellow vest riots have anything to do with the EU or Brexit? From your write up, I'm interpreting the friction as one of national French exuberance to demonstrate. Vive la France

I don't feel I'm really qualified to give you an informed answer but here's mine :

The Yellow Vests have much to complain about but whilst they will all point to a set of general conditions (insecurity, wage poverty, loss of confidence in government etc etc) they do not all share a common starting-point.

France has not seen the economic growth that one might assume the "European" club might confer. If you look at the table below of comparitive GDP numbers you'll see that the UK and Germany's rate of growth between 1973 and 2008 was much better than France's whereas their rate of growth between 1950 and 1973 was far better. Alas, this is 1968 fallout again and the massive structural problems in France are very very difficult to fix because effectively half the population are the "Engine Drivers" mentioned in my earlier post and the other half are paying for them.....and they both make up the Yellow Vests!

It is politically impossible to instigate the meaningful reform that might address this quickly- if at all ...think NHS but on ALL levels...transport, industry, tax, local government etc etc. The whole of France is one gigantic sacred cow and, like I said previously, the mess that a vast proportion of the population experience every day is the creation of the ransom payment of 50 years ago. Macron had the temerity to attempt to reform at something marginally faster than a snail's pace and is paying the price.

At one point (pre-election) the French thought that Macron was their own brand of Populist but they have been brutally disappointed that he can't deliver what they can't even imagine, let alone articulate. What the French have left is the possibility of venting their spleen by disrupting traffic and destroying property, yet again - but just with more gusto. I reckon that they feel doubly swindled in that they want a Populist like the Italians and instead they have someone who doesn't really care how they feel and wants to introduce reforms which take way what they see are the few the privileges they have left.

So, having gone all round the houses, Yes - the Yellow Vests have a lot to do with the EU but perhaps not in the way one might at first think...and also yes, taking to the streets is what they do and have done since 1789 and will continue to do until hell freezes over.

The table is sorted by the 1973 column in descending order. Enjoy.

 

[barjon]

Cantagril

Thanks for taking the trouble to write a couple of top quality posts that have brought a much needed dose of realism to the thread

 

[cantagril]

Tom Enders Upended


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-po...ancois-accuses-airbus-boss-of-german-bullying

I'm not particularly bothered that Mark Francois feels vulnerable and put upon but deliberately misrepresenting facts (or "lying" as I prefer to call it) helps nobody. Germany does NOT have special influence over the way Airbus/EADS is run and it was Enders who was both a prime-mover in reforming the way the company was run to ensure this....and he was the chap who tried very hard to get a merger done with BAE. If one does want to pretend that Airbus is part of a European conspiracy then it's worth bearing in mind that Airbus' HQ and manufacturing centre is not in the Fatherland but at Toulouse in SW France....so if there is any corporate bullying going on it's more Frog than Kraut. As small but amusing ironies be aware that Monsieur Francois (clue's in the name) is not only slightly european himself but just happened to be a minister at the MoD during the EADS internal reform and the aforementioned failed merger.

 

[cantagril]

Cantagril

Thanks for taking the trouble to write a couple of top quality posts that have brought a much needed dose of realism to the thread

Thank you for thanking me. Not sure that it's realism but rather another point of view. I admit to finding the mis-attribution of motives and nefarious practice mildly annoying but mostly because it seems to reflect a strange sort of pride in ignorance. I can't speak for anyone but myself but I prefer to ask stupid questions than giving stupid answers....and in case anyone here's feeling sensitive, I don't mean you but the Laurel and Hardy show that got us all into this fine mess.

 

[cantagril]

This Turnover Tax is interesting and first time I'm hearing it. Initial thoughts are turnover is not necessarily a good indicator of profits or the bottom line.

Sorry to keep doing this but...."turnover tax" has been in place in France since the revolution and is called somewhat confusingly for English speakers "la Patente" and was replaced in the 70s by "la taxe professionnelle" which essentially does the same thing. I think it's been renamed yet again but it's a tax on being in business independent of profit. There are several other taxes on turnover as well (see link) and these are some of the things that business leaders of all sizes point to as being one of the major handicaps to growth.

http://bofip.impots.gouv.fr/bofip/7765-PGP.html

Sorry, all in French but it's more the length of the list than the names - whatever they're called there these are all turnover taxes.

 

[Signalcalc]

Macron has got an uphill struggle to stay in power now though, the French establishment put him there to look after their own bankster globalist interests and that has spectacularly backfired (of course all linked with the globalist EU). It's hard to see how a French people's takeover is now not going to take place. Will be interesting to see the change in politics in France as the Gilet Jaunes get organised.

https://www.euronews.com/2019/01/24...rs-announce-candidates-for-european-elections

 

[Pat494]

In my opinion there would be none of this national uncertainty if the party leaders had shown some backbone
and given a written warning to their members after the referendum that :-
those who favoured remain were obviously out of touch generally and if they were unable to change their views in accordance with the referendum result should tender their resignations forthwith or be sacked.
Then the MPs would have had a more consolidated front V. Eu divide and ruin tactics.
Also Moggy and Boris tactics would not have happened. Weak leadership is of little use to anyone.

 

[Atilla]

Watching this prog and it's really good.

https://www.radiotimes.com/tv-programme/e/hmfdx4/inside-europe-10-years-of-turmoil--s1-e1-we-quit/

Shocking the ineptitude of Cameron's cabinet. Absolutely shocking.

 

[Pat494]

What our MPs are good at one thing though is -
Giving away tax payer's money.
The South Africans got £5 billion recently and now Iraq is getting millions.
Being America's poodle doesn't pay off, it costs us lives and money.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/ukne...oyed-in-isis-fight/ar-BBSSqqp?ocid=spartanntp

 

[Pat494]

The supermarkets are predicting food shortages on Brexit.

 

[Signalcalc]

The supermarkets are predicting food shortages on Brexit.

No worries, get panic buying

 

[Signalcalc]

The level of violence from the police is frankly disturbing and difficult to understand why the French people accept it from the state, if it is normalised and accepted by French people, then it is difficult to see how it squares with an EU form of justice and acceptable level of violence from police without criticism. There would be numerous court cases launched in the UK if it was UK police, is this about to happen in France? Surely French citizens have a legal recourse, what about the European Convention on Human rights, the evidence is overwhelming?

I also find it disturbing, whilst not surprising, that such levels of violence are not being reported by MSM, just as they are in Venezuela, China, Russia et al.

Item 26 says it all for me.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1085129853509271552

 

[Pat494]

Just wait a bit until Merkel & co. have gone and the far right move in.
The present " brutality " will look like a walk in the park compared to their
heavy handed tactics. A whiff of grapeshot will cool their ardour a bit.

 

[Signalcalc]

Just wait a bit until Merkel & co. have gone and the far right move in.
The present " brutality " will look like a walk in the park compared to their
heavy handed tactics. A whiff of grapeshot will cool their ardour a bit.

But who are the 'far right' to be able to move in. People and the media keep talking about them but seem to be unable to define who it actually is? Are we talking about Nazis? And if so where are they? I haven't seen anything that would resemble a group of Nazis that are capable of pulling the skin off a rice pudding

 

[Pat494]

But who are the 'far right' to be able to move in. People and the media keep talking about them but seem to be unable to define who it actually is? Are we talking about Nazis? And if so where are they? I haven't seen anything that would resemble a group of Nazis that are capable of pulling the skin off a rice pudding

Well lets hope you are right ( no pun intended ).

 

[cantagril]

The level of violence from the police is frankly disturbing and difficult to understand why the French people accept it from the state, if it is normalised and accepted by French people,.............

I also find it disturbing, whilst not surprising, that such levels of violence are not being reported by MSM, just as they are in Venezuela, China, Russia et al.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1085129853509271552

As I was trying to explain in my earlier posts - it's only 20 odd miles away but it's not a country of English folk who happen to speak another language. French police brutality should be seen within the context of the overall level of violence of the society generally...i.e we're back to culture again. That suggestion I made about Googling "émeutes urbaines" to see what has been going on for decades was entirely germane. The emergency services (and of course) the police come under fire on the estates and there are frequent fatalities whilst burning cars is pretty much a given.

French police have been carrying side-arms since forever and if one translates the word "Gendarme" into English from its literal origins it means "an armed person" and was at one point a synonym for "soldier"....rather like the Carabinieri in Italy. Regrettably, the police do need their weapons as they're routinely up against Kalashnikovs.

As an illustration of the different level of "acceptable' violence, I fondly remember when MacDonald's opened an outlet in Millau at the end of the 90s and some enthusiastic chaps from the local Sheep Milk Producers Association (I kid you not) laid waste to the building under construction whilst being encouraged by hundreds of farmers. The police had been made aware of the plan but weren't able to dissuade them. José Bové who was the spokesman of the association ended up doing 3 months whilst his pals just got a fine. The incident was pretty normal behaviour and a few years later Bové ran in the presidential elections and after that he was an MEP for a bit.....which didn't stop him being refused entry into the US which also failed to share Gallic attitudes to Civil Disobedience and Criminal Damage. Really and truly, they're not like us....and few foreigners are.

 

[timsk]

But who are the 'far right' to be able to move in. People and the media keep talking about them but seem to be unable to define who it actually is?

Hi Sig',
Where you are on the political spectrum is determined by where the person making that judgement about you sees themselves on said spectrum. In their eyes, that's what determines whether you are a lefty, centre fence sitter or right wing nut job. So, for someone on the (far) left - which would appear to be large chunks of mainstream media, anyone marginally right of centre is perceived to be 'far right'. I've been accused of being on the far right when posting YouTube comments about Brexit, while here on T2W, hhiusa once accused me of being a Marxist. Take your pick!

I'm not sure of my ground here (so someone please correct me if I'm wrong), but my understanding of identity politics is that anyone who voted remain in the referendum is classed as being on the left and those of us that voted leave are viewed as being on the right. This is complete bollox IMO, as I'm pretty sure that I have political views traditionally associated with the left (e.g. I'm a NHS evangelist) whilst, simultaneously, holding traditional right wing views (e.g. I believe in a free market economy).
Tim.

 

[0007]

Hi Sig',
Where you are on the political spectrum is determined by where the person making that judgement about you sees themselves on the political spectrum. In their eyes, that's what determines whether you are a lefty, centre fence sitter or right wing nut job. So, for someone on the (far) left - which would appear to be large chunks of mainstream media, anyone marginally right of centre is perceived by them to be 'far right'. I've been accused of being on the far right when posting YouTube comments on Brexit, while here on T2W hhiusa once accused me of being a Marxist. Take your pick!

I'm not sure of my ground here (so someone please correct me if I'm wrong), but my understanding of identity politics is that anyone who voted remain in the referendum is classed as being on the left and those of us that voted leave are viewed as being on the right. This is complete bollox IMO, as I'm pretty sure that I have political views traditionally associated with the left (e.g. I'm a NHS evangelist) whilst, simultaneously, holding traditional right wing views (e.g. I believe in a free market economy).
Tim.

Yes, you've identified the problem! Brexit opinions do not follow traditional left/right party lines (except where particular left/right interests want to "weaponise" the Brexit debate for their own purposes. This is why Brexit has raised fundamental constitutional issues – it just doesn't follow our normal psyche. It's much the same as Cantagrill has explained in his excellent posts about the differences between us and Europeans (only 20 miles apart but a million miles culturally). I cannot recall any issue in modern times that has crossed traditionally ideological party lines in the way Brexit has. And that is why the outcome is so uncertain – exacerbated by a particularly inept government led by a particularly inept PM and challenged by a particularly inept Opposition.

 

[mike.]

Watching this prog and it's really good.

https://www.radiotimes.com/tv-programme/e/hmfdx4/inside-europe-10-years-of-turmoil--s1-e1-we-quit/

Shocking the ineptitude of Cameron's cabinet. Absolutely shocking.

I enjoyed it last night on catch up, I must admit that I was wrong regarding Cameron, he appeared to fight the EU tooth and nail for his country ..It just highlights how arrogant and stubborn this EU racket has become with the likes of Mitterrand and co..