Brexit and the Consequences

Atilla

Legendary member
19,046 2,680

So assuming these elections sort of reflect a 2nd referendum of sorts, all hard brexiteers are voting for the Brexit party to leave without a deal defaulting to a WTO position, 34% is not really that much of a big majority is it.

Especially considering the Brexit vote isn't broken by UKIP.

Effectively two thirds of the country seem to be confused or positive remainers.

One third are hard core Brexiteers.


All you geezers rabbiting on about democracy... aren't you missing somefink?


We live in interesting times (y)
 

timsk

Legendary member
7,076 1,866
. . . All you geezers rabbiting on about democracy... aren't you missing somefink? . . .
No At', we're not missing anyfink.

YouGov Poll 8-9 May 2019-01.png


What you're missing is that hard core remainers will vote LibDem, Green or Change UK. That's 31%. Brexit party and UKIP are at 37%. Now if you split the Tories, Labour and 'Other' down the middle (which is being EXTREMELY generous to remainers), then you can add another 16% to leavers and remainers respectively. So, the final scores at the doors are:
Leave: 53%
Remain: 47%

That's a much more accurate and fairer interpretation of the poll IMO, and shows that Brexiteers are very much in poll position. Did you see what I did there - clever eh!
Tim.
 
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barjon

Legendary member
10,330 1,570
No At', we're not missing anyfink.

View attachment 262748

What you're missing is that hard core remainers will vote LibDem, Green or Change UK. That's 31%. Brexit party and UKIP are at 37%. Now if you split the Tories, Labour and 'Other' down the middle (which is being EXTREMELY generous to remainers), then you can add another 16% to leavers and remainers respectively. So, the final scores at the doors are:
Leave: 53%
Remain: 47%

That's a much more accurate and fairer interpretation of the poll IMO, and shows that Brexiteers are very much in poll position. Did you see what I did there - clever eh!
Tim.
Clever stuff, Tim :geek:. Mind you, how the half-a-dozen who actually bother to vote break down is anyone’s guess.
 
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0007

Senior member
2,303 604
Brexit on 34% after only 4 weeks – that is significant.

The mess will only be resolved by a General election. Without cleaning out the current rotten Parliament there is little hope. I see that somebody is already making a start!

262752
 
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Atilla

Legendary member
19,046 2,680
Not accurate at all.

You can get creative, slice and dice any way you like.

Democratic will of the people - 34% for Brexit, rest 66% simply not interested in hard brexit.


Numbers game innit. Don't add up. Dooohhhhhh. o_O
 

counter_violent

Legendary member
9,712 2,475
Not accurate at all.

You can get creative, slice and dice any way you like.

Democratic will of the people - 34% for Brexit, rest 66% simply not interested in hard brexit.


Numbers game innit. Don't add up. Dooohhhhhh. o_O
La la la la la.

We're not listening.

(y)
 
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timsk

Legendary member
7,076 1,866
. . . Numbers game innit. Don't add up. Dooohhhhhh. o_O
Hi At',
I'm not normally one to blow my own trumpet, but I think my logic is clear and well reasoned. As for the numbers not adding up, I think you'll find that mine do, which is more than can be said of the YouGov poll. If you total up all the parties, they come to 101! Proof - if it were needed - that polls aren't that reliable. Because of this, my assumption is that the Brexit party will do even better than the poll suggests - and the results of the EU elections will leave the two main parties quaking in their boots.
:LOL:
Tim.
 

0007

Senior member
2,303 604
The EU vote next week will be a proxy second referendum/meaningful vote/confirmatory vote. Whatever way you look at it, all parties except Brexit have good reason to be very worried. It's no longer just about Brexit, Joe Bloggs Average has rumbled the career politicians, the uselessness of the 2 main parties and the ineffectiveness and irrelevance of all the rest. They see Farage as their saviour and will vote accordingly. Where we will be in 10 or 20 years time – who knows?
 

Atilla

Legendary member
19,046 2,680
I recognise what you both say and concur.

However, even if Farage becomes PM forms a cabinet he will still have to get his proposals through Parliament via votes.

I'm happy with our current democracy, Parliament and HoLs.

I think it may be good as it will highlight what a useless mouthpiece he is. It's all about the delivery. Not about the talk.


Best wishes to you both and Farage (y)
 

0007

Senior member
2,303 604
I recognise what you both say and concur.

However, even if Farage becomes PM forms a cabinet he will still have to get his proposals through Parliament via votes.

I'm happy with our current democracy, Parliament and HoLs.

I think it may be good as it will highlight what a useless mouthpiece he is. It's all about the delivery. Not about the talk.


Best wishes to you both and Farage (y)
Real test for Farage – who should walk the EU elections & Peterborough by-election– will be his policy proposals for going into a general election. Plenty of room for cockup but on the other hand he & his candidates don't have any baggage worth talking about. And he will have to keep the momentum going – Conservatives will do all they can to avoid an election but Jezza will do all he can to "help out" 🤣 My homegrown EOD EA says that a general election will come sooner rather than later & that Farage will enable a temporary Jezza minority government which, at the appropriate time he will bring down. With a defunct Tory party & little credible alternative, he will then take over. We then restart the usual cycle of eventual dissatisfaction etc .........

Of course ......... might be the odd Black Swan sailing by
 

Signalcalc

Veteren member
3,804 802
Real test for Farage – who should walk the EU elections & Peterborough by-election– will be his policy proposals for going into a general election. Plenty of room for cockup but on the other hand he & his candidates don't have any baggage worth talking about. And he will have to keep the momentum going – Conservatives will do all they can to avoid an election but Jezza will do all he can to "help out" [emoji1787] My homegrown EOD EA says that a general election will come sooner rather than later & that Farage will enable a temporary Jezza minority government which, at the appropriate time he will bring down. With a defunct Tory party & little credible alternative, he will then take over. We then restart the usual cycle of eventual dissatisfaction etc .........

Of course ......... might be the odd Black Swan sailing by
There is plenty of baggage in the Brexit party already, lots more shenanigans to come before a general election.

 

Signalcalc

Veteren member
3,804 802
Let’s have your predictions ladies and gents.

I predict a Brexit whitewash next week, prompting a collapse of the Tories, a leadership contest won by Boris followed by a general election resulting in a Tory/Brexit party coalition ending in a no deal majority followed by a WTO Brexit.

Not forgetting quite a few stagnating years for the EU if not a complete change of direction.
 

barjon

Legendary member
10,330 1,570
Let’s have your predictions ladies and gents.

I predict a Brexit whitewash next week, prompting a collapse of the Tories, a leadership contest won by Boris followed by a general election resulting in a Tory/Brexit party coalition ending in a no deal majority followed by a WTO Brexit.

Not forgetting quite a few stagnating years for the EU if not a complete change of direction.
Well, yours is the word of Gawd, signal, so it must be so :)
 
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