TRO Test Results

[UKtradergirl]

I am creating this thread as a separate place to post and review the results of TheRumpledOne's Horizontal Line Strategy. The EA used to test this was kindly coded by North5 (thankyou!).

I will go through some major currency pairs in order, posting screenshots of the backtest results from the last 3 months trading (approximately 2000 trades). In time i will also post the results of forward testing.

You can read more about the strategy and the ongoing debate at the following threads on this forum, as well as countless places in other forums:-

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/equities/41916-never-lose-again-therumpledone.html

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/fir...need-trade-horizontal-line-therumpledone.html

I have attached the EA here for anyone who wants it (posted elsewhere in other threads too).

 

[foredog]

You're obsessed!

 

[UKtradergirl]

Aud Usd

Currency Pair: AUD/USD

3 month backtest: 26 August 2008 to 26 September 2008

67.19% win rate
Profit factor: 0.60
Total net loss: 3532.71 (starting account 10,000)

 

[UKtradergirl]

You're obsessed!

yeah hehe. Just determined to nail this particular strategy- win or lose i don't care- just want to see the results!

 

[UKtradergirl]

Eur Usd

EUR USD results

3 month backtest

win rate: 73.37%
Profit factor: 0.84
Total Net Loss: 678.70

This currency pair a bit better than AUDUSD.

 

[UKtradergirl]

Usd Jpy

USD JPY results

3 month backtest

win rate: 68.46%
Profit factor: 0.68
Total Net Loss: 2209.86

 

[trendie]

AUDUSD: 1405 trades
EURUSD: 860 trades
USDJPY: 1246 trades

this system is a brokers wet-dream.
(DAMN!! posting again)

 

[UKtradergirl]

Gbp Usd

GBP USD results

3 month backtest

win rate: 69.51%
Profit factor: 0.69
Total Net Loss: 2972.40

OK this is the last one i'll do for now unless someone has got a specific request. I'll to a longer term test later today, although the above ones provide a fairly good sample.

 

[timsk]

What a bummer, all that work, all those threads and posts - and it doesn't bleedin' well work! Oh well, I guess now we'll have to pin all our hopes on MrSpreadBet!
:cheesy:

 

[BSD]

OMG !

Well done Donna.

Nothing like adding some hard facts.

This isn't religion, belief has nothing to do with anything, either you are net profitable or you're not.

 

[UKtradergirl]

If only that equity curve was a winning one and not a losing one- it would be almost like the holy grail- nice and smooth.

 

[north5]

UKtg,

Good work. If you have the time could you indulge me and run it through the optimisation - taking the TP up in 5 pip steps up to about 50 or so.

Ta.

What is interesting is that som one said the first version (which exited the trade as soon as the H1 turned against rather than waitng for SL or line cross) was profitable. didn't post screen shots mind.

 

[UKtradergirl]

UKtg,

Good work. If you have the time could you indulge me and run it through the optimisation - taking the TP up in 5 pip steps up to about 50 or so.

Ta.

What is interesting is that som one said the first version (which exited the trade as soon as the H1 turned against rather than waitng for SL or line cross) was profitable. didn't post screen shots mind.

Yes i'll have a look. I'm going out for a few hours now but will do when i get back. Thanks for your hard work in coding this. The tests above have been run without changes to any settings.

I suspect it will be more profitable with a higher TP.

Watch this space...

 

[FXSCALPER2]

It was all too obvious, no?

 

[Mr. Charts]

Nothing like consistency..........

Assuming the EA is correct, these results are just what I'd intuitively expect from such a "system" before even thinking about it.........
Well done to north5 and UKtradergirl for all their work.
Richard

 

[Hoggums]

If only that equity curve was a winning one and not a losing one- it would be almost like the holy grail- nice and smooth.

Even if you did reverse the trades it would never be profitable because of the volume of trades.

I think this thread conclusively resolves the debate! Although I can see Mr Wrinkly rubbishing it somehow...

 

[Mr. Charts]

Even if you did reverse the trades it would never be profitable because of the volume of trades.

I think this thread conclusively resolves the debate! Although I can see Mr Wrinkly rubbishing it somehow...

...not to mention slippage and spread?

 

[rols]

Even if you did reverse the trades it would never be profitable because of the volume of trades.

I think this thread conclusively resolves the debate! Although I can see Mr Wrinkly rubbishing it somehow...

Hold up!

15 minute charts with 5 lines and TP 20

Last few hours of live trading!

Winning and losing is very much on how things are presented and what the viewer wants to see. Basic marketing stuff.

 

[foredog]

Surely simple maths told us it'd be struggle

target 5 points stop 20, so we need a 75% win rate just to break even

or if we have 4 losers in a row we need to win 16 times in a row to break even (assuming using a fixed size)

imagine a scenario of 10 losers in a row............

 

[rols]

Surely simple maths told us it'd be struggle

target 5 points stop 20, so we need a 75% win rate just to break even

or if we have 4 losers in a row we need to win 16 times in a row to break even (assuming using a fixed size)

imagine a scenario of 10 losers in a row............

Yes of course.

A couple of points though

Backtesting on MT4 is about as useful as a choco teapot - esp when 'modeling quality is' is 50%
Yet when we embark on this hapless wild goose chase all reason and correct logical thought go out of the window as the promise of a fast buck and the magic of computers beckon us with their false hope.

Even though I WASTED years of my time messing around with automated tading systems and yes they do always end in a cul-de-sac there is still a strange thrill about seeing one in action - it must be the something for nothing and no effort holy grail.

When I ran the TRO EA on one of my PCs with the modifications today and left it running for a few hours then looked at the trade results I couldn't believe my eyes - see previous post - all winners!!

Until I realised the trades were listed by PROFIT, above these winners, there were three times as many losing trades.

Food for thought....