Trading the ES (E mini) December 2003

[stoploss please]

Two suggestions

(1). We all know roughly where support and resistance is in the ES but we are not sure how strong these areas will be. How about a competition by which we all identify our key areas for the next session and see who gets it right. Now the question is how we measure the areas strength or weakness.

(2). I have recently set up a chat room in Pal Talk. The idea was to have a common place where ES traders can talk and bounce ideas off each other. This has not been going very long. Now, I was thinking, how about we expand this to all ES traders out there and if Trade2Win wants to bring it under their umbrella, they are more than welcome. We can either keep it in Pal Talk or if you would prefer, in MIRC however, I would prefer PT as for some reason, MIRC does not work for me. Also, with Pal Talk, we can all get microphones. Another suggestion, if there is enough interest out there, why don't we share the price of the pit squawk box. We don't have to then hear Gary from Market Vu drowning out what the pit is saying. The only thing that could be an issue here is copy wright but we can cross that bridge if there is enough interest.

Have a think about this
Andy

 

[china white]

13:00 time pivot - internals still trend up indicative. However, neg div across indices with regard to 600 ema/5 min. 40 ema/5min test. Per sys long at 66.50.

Given neg divs - odds of a trend reversal r higher than on a "usual" trend day. head's up

Stoploss - answering yr Q - on a trend day I believe the main sup/res level is 40 ema/5min = 200 min ema

 

[stoploss please]

Cheers geez

 

[china white]

or put it another way - we bot UP from below on a dip to 40 ema/5min. what we ideally want is UP to become additional sup. needs to resolve tight range btwn 40 ema and UP. watching tick as a hawk for clues

 

[madasafish]

Trin is very bullish <0.5 and we are falling. Short the rallies!

 

[stoploss please]

EMA layering

China

I have added the 40MA to my charts. I had another look at yesterdays action on what was a non trend day. The best down moves was were we had shorts between the 40 and 240 MA. Is that how you see it. I think that is what they call trading in the zone.

Also. I am looking at the distance between price relative to the MA
as an over bought and over sold indicator. The difference between the 40MA and th price was four points. I wonder if there is a natural distance between the price and its MAs.

 

[china white]

matey also be careful - MAs on ES and SPX are different - due to after-hours, when u get readings on ES, but Cash is shut. i compare index positioning on cash mostly. however for intraday trading purposes u need to look on ES MAs as well

 

[china white]

ok - 14:15 time pivot passed without trend reversing. 0.3% trailing stop is surgically on entry now 1066.50. IMHO best thing u can do now is to leave things as they r and take whatever mrkt will give u at 16:14 . I am off. talk to all later

 

[stoploss please]

Well, over 10,000 on the Dow.

 

[china white]

a Q on madasafish's stochs

madasafish,

u made me intereted on how u read days like this in your approach. Essentially my Q is: today between 10:30 and 13:15 market was flat, however yr stoch was obviously downsloping (see chart attached). Does it mean u were short all that time?

 

[stoploss please]

I found today ES hard work. I understood the 40MA entry but still missed the long afternoon entry. I also did not recognise any tick generated entries. The MACD was also not so well defined for me in any of the other indecis. In hindsight I can see strength but for some reason, I was doubting this move and kepted waiting for a short that only appeared as a counter trend move off 1072.50 which was at yesterdays high.

 

[china white]

matey u lost me here: "I understood the 40MA entry but still missed the long afternoon entry". There was only 1 L entry at 1066.50 (Dec contracts) at 40 ema, closed @ 1072.50 1 min b4 16:15. what 2nd entry r u talking about?

On trend days, if u remember, tick is a secondary indicator used mostly for scalping. The primary along-the-trend entry indicator is 40 ema/5 min.

 

[stoploss please]

Another variation

I was thinking. Have you ever tried using a slower MA to give you an indication of how in will break on days like today.

 

[stoploss please]

Mate

I am so use to look at you Tick that when I saw your MA set up I froze.

 

[china white]

Stoploss, I know for a fact that Chartman is using 100 min = 20 ema/5 min in his system, and some other lads on the other side of the pond r watching 5 ema/1 hour = 300 min = 60 ema/5 min.

 

[stoploss please]

Mate

Have you got any hard and fast rules when using the 40 MA. I suppose if the the 40 is above the 240, we are buying dips but if the 40, 240 and 600 are all layer in that order, the dip buys are stronger signals.

 

[china white]

i believe u r right mate but this is not how u use it. what i do is taking 40 ema/5 min as the primary indicator on TREND days (defined thru indices' internals and positioning with respect to their MAs). On a NO-TREND day it is all tick divs that guide me, and 40 ema is not such an important number at all.

one exception to note is Bull Gorgeous/Bear Minger days defined as a clear break thru 240 and 600 mas on the opening gap, or shortly after the open. On those days u rarely get a chance to jump on the trend at 40 ema - u just have to jump wherever thez some minor weakness

 

[hampy]

China, sorry, being thick. Have I got this right now?
On trend day's, you wait for a pullback to the 40ema/5min and re/enter in the direction of the trend.
If the pullback doesn't get as far as 40 ema you don't take the trade, if it hits the 40 do you take every trade on offer?
thx
hampy

 

[china white]

matey as a rule yes.

of coz if the internals r screaming strong u may just take naz overbot/sld without waiting for 40 ema - but that's a punt - reasonable, but a punt

and u take 40 ema only after checking it is STILL a trend

 

[hampy]

China, Sorry, not quite there yet.
Naz overbot/sld. I assume this refers to it's RSI. What levels do you consider to be o/b or o/s.
Strong internals. Not sure I understand how you define this.
Checking the trend is still intact- Is this purely the leading indices
( sox,naz,bix )above/below their 40, 240, 600 /5min ema's.
Thx again
hampy