The Sox looked weak today and seemed to drag down the ES. However, through out its drop, the MACD of SOX was giving positive divergences. The 200 MA was the place were both the SOX and ES stopped there declines.
TBH I found lots of things everything confusing today, what with sorting out this charting malarky. Wasn't watching a lot real-time other than to try and do some benchmarking to check how "real-time" this new feed is.
As I look at prem (hey, should finally be the same as yours) now it doesn't seem overly confusing (but hindsight is a wonderful thing ). Whether it would have made sense at the time, I don't honestly know.
Anyway, a brief summary. See if you agree.
14:38-14:40 prem hits threshold sell program levels. Cash is down, e-mini is down. prem is obviously below fv. Conclusion: futures led move. Action: long. Level: Anywhere you like but when prem hits threshold program sell level you are getting value.
14:40-14:59 cash and e-mini move up. prem predominantly below fv. Conclusion: cash led move. Action: hold long.
14:59-15:01 cash and e-mini surge. prem surges above fv. Conclusion: futures led move. Action: ready to exit long (maybe short depends how aggressive you are). Level: Anywhere, but when prem hits "active" buy program level it's as good a spot as anywhere.
15:01-15:10 cash and futures retrace before heading back up (also accompanied by 0 TICK bounce). Threshold buy program level hit by prem at 15:10 and then prem holds above fv. Conclusion: Unsure.... Don't honestly know whether I would have taken the TICK 0 bounce or not.
15:15-15:49 prem hits buy program threshold again and a move down begins with prem > fv. Conclusion: cash led move. Action: Short. Level: Please yourself.....
After that, it gets messy (just as you said) with what looks like a long drawn out futures led crawl upward. For me personally, it's outside the first 90 minutes and so I wouldn't bother trading it.
The 16:34 bar on prem would have alerted me to the possibility of something happening. But when nothing developed it would been back to sleep until that "swing" in prem that happened between 18:23 and 18:31.
If you caught the short then prem below fv on a move down should have kept you sharp (expecting a reversal). prem hitting the threshold sell program level at 19:17 was a reasonable point to exit your short and possibly reverse. I would have been looking to exit, or protect the position up till 19:35 simply because prem was trading above fv indicating a futures led move.
When the threshold buy program level was hit by prem at 19:35 I would have exited any long.
The rest of the session looked like it was futures led so even if I had traded it, I would not have been expecting much from it.
brilliant example of how trading on a system actually makes any sense at all only if u actually TRADE on it
sussing the final bit of using high-beta indices' macd of cash to sift out 2 tops/bottoms (those short of 3 necessary for a proper div sequence) was quite "enlightening", which makes me even more p1ssed-off at meself for not trading on it!!!!
A surgical short @ 1068.50 on a complete tick neg div at upper 1st hr pivot with neg divs across indices was giving a nice win of 6.5 pts at 14:15ish
Then I get macd of cash pos div on Comp (even better on SOX - brilliant chart mate) at 1062 - lower pivot + former res resolved into a sup - and do nothing.... "U r a 24 carat plonker Rodney, u really r!" Quote from Delboy :cheesy:
after 1st hour (no-trend day) we fade upper pivot @ 68.75. Which per system shud've bn reversed at lower pivot which wud've bn the right move. however, u need to be careful on set-ups where the 1st hr range is so tight. I took 1.5 pts and covered w/o reversing.
The rest is clear from Tick graph. Note we had 2 set-ups where tick spikes/lows were equal, and therefore macd of tick div vs tick and tick div vs ES wud be happening simulataneously.
Note also another luvly example of an "imbedded" tick div sequences. U do sell the shorter one (well thez no way to tell abt the longer one at that pt, is there? :cheesy: ) with a tight stop of 1.5 pts and trgt of same 1.5 pts. Then u sell the larger one, actually also with a tight stoploss, since there were no macd of cash divs on high-beta indices, and tick had bn constantly >0 over the entire duration of the sequence
today we had the narrowest range in 7 days. Tomorrow's direction of gap open will most likely define a strong trend in the same direction. Which i am afraid will be up which in turn will ignite a psycho rally, anywhere up to 1150
however, I still hvnt got mcClellan for the last session but I suspect it's gonna be a minor change down. Just be alerted.
it is only 9:13 pm here in mexico do I am excused for posting these late msgs
not implying anything or drawing any conclusions WHATSOEVER this bit struck me:
By December 94 the red ink hidden in account 88888 totalled $512 million. Getting increasingly desperate Leeson bet that the Nikkei index would not drop below 19,000 points. At the time this seemed reasonable as the Japanese economy was rebounding after a 30-month recession. Then on the 17th January 1995, a devastating earthquake measuring 7.2 hit the Japanese city of Kobe.
The previously stable Nikkei index plummeted by 7% in a week. As the losses grew, Leeson requested extra funds to continue trading, hoping to extricate himself from the mess by more deals. Leeson was counting that there would be a post quake rebound and the Nikki would stabilise at 19,000. There was no hedges, no bets the other way to protect Barings' huge exposures. There was no rebound. Over three months he bought more than 20,000 futures contracts worth about $180,000 each in a vain attempt to move the market. Some three quarters of the $1.3 billion he lost Barrings resulted from these trades. When Barings executives discovered what had happened, they informed the Bank of England that Barings was effectively bust.