Stoploss,
TBH I found lots of things everything confusing today, what with sorting out this charting malarky. Wasn't watching a lot real-time other than to try and do some benchmarking to check how "real-time" this new feed is.
As I look at prem (hey, should finally be the same as yours) now it doesn't seem overly confusing (but hindsight is a wonderful thing
). Whether it would have made sense at the time, I don't honestly know.
Anyway, a brief summary. See if you agree.
14:38-14:40 prem hits threshold sell program levels. Cash is down, e-mini is down. prem is obviously below fv. Conclusion: futures led move. Action: long. Level: Anywhere you like but when prem hits threshold program sell level you are getting value.
14:40-14:59 cash and e-mini move up. prem predominantly below fv. Conclusion: cash led move. Action: hold long.
14:59-15:01 cash and e-mini surge. prem surges above fv. Conclusion: futures led move. Action: ready to exit long (maybe short depends how aggressive you are). Level: Anywhere, but when prem hits "active" buy program level it's as good a spot as anywhere.
15:01-15:10 cash and futures retrace before heading back up (also accompanied by 0 TICK bounce). Threshold buy program level hit by prem at 15:10 and then prem holds above fv. Conclusion: Unsure....
Don't honestly know whether I would have taken the TICK 0 bounce or not.
15:15-15:49 prem hits buy program threshold again and a move down begins with prem > fv. Conclusion: cash led move. Action: Short. Level: Please yourself.....
After that, it gets messy (just as you said) with what looks like a long drawn out futures led crawl upward. For me personally, it's outside the first 90 minutes and so I wouldn't bother trading it.
The 16:34 bar on prem would have alerted me to the possibility of something happening. But when nothing developed it would been back to sleep until that "swing" in prem that happened between 18:23 and 18:31.
If you caught the short then prem below fv on a move down should have kept you sharp (expecting a reversal). prem hitting the threshold sell program level at 19:17 was a reasonable point to exit your short and possibly reverse. I would have been looking to exit, or protect the position up till 19:35 simply because prem was trading above fv indicating a futures led move.
When the threshold buy program level was hit by prem at 19:35 I would have exited any long.
The rest of the session looked like it was futures led so even if I had traded it, I would not have been expecting much from it.