Trading ES (Q1 2004)

[stoploss please]

Adam & Eve ??

Is this your Adam and the Ants top.

 

[china white]

20 ema play

i do strongly believe here that its a 20 ema/60 min play now. Alternative is 1100 lost - i dont quite buy it. 1110 crucial level imo

 

[mombasa]

China - same on the dow - 60min 20 ema, daily 100 ema and weekly 20 ema all have the same overhead resistance circa 10,220.

Strong support at 10,100 so we're seeing a descending triangle which should break to the downside (unfortunately)

 

[china white]

its gonna be a 40-50 pts move here either way now. best trade one can make here IMO is buying a strangle 1050-1150 June maturity. Yes i know u r gonna tell me volatility spiked up but at below 20 volatility those strangles r still incredibly cheap.

 

[china white]

mombasa - so far "holy grailers" were quite comfortable playing Linda's game on a 60 min scale - 4 tries so far if i am not mistaken. PERSONALLY i wudnt play "holy grail" for the 5th time - I'd wait for 1100 (cash) to be lost to go short again (IF!!!!)

 

[mombasa]

and as we speak, the 60/20 is being breached to the up

oops, had forgotten abt the RSI divergence so I guess odds were on an up.

Just watching at the mo.

 

[Finirama]

That was a wild ride and we love it!!

 

[china white]

excellent time to buy the 2nd part of the strangle - June 1050 puts - if u were long June 1150 calls from yesterday's late afternoon lows.

 

[hampy]

China, Oh No. Please tell me I don't need to learn options just yet.
My brain hurts :cheesy:
Hope you had a good hol.
hampy

 

[china white]

hampy there r 2 dimentions to option trading:

- directional positions where u r normally LONG options (calls or puts or both as in the case of a strangle) - this is essentially like trading high beta stocks vs. lower beta stocks of the same sector - u increase your LEVERAGE. DEF WORTH LEARNING!!! my advice for a beginner tho wud be not to trade "collars" on directional exposure - that is avoid shorting options

- volatility positions where u hedge the options with underlying. Be it plain vol exposure or long/short skew or long/short time structure - LEARN IT IF THIS GIVES U KICKS but DEF NOT TRADE it as a beginner!!!

see hampy my learning path was very different from most of ppl here - I was a volatility trader first.

 

[mombasa]

china, do u really wanna get back into delta/gamma hedging

need 2 much dosh to do that myself.

currently developing some software for the exotics desk - equity-credit hybrids, generic barriers and equity default swaps - make my head spin inside out

 

[china white]

mombasa - dunno if ppl here will be interested in my personal inspirations - but since u posted here I'll also respond on the thread. apologies to those who think it's inappropriate

i LUV being me own guv to get me back to the pro trading desk I'll need quite significant limits from starters - let's say 250-500K Vega, about 5 mln quid Gamma and about 10 mln quid delta limits. and again i'll think TWICE!

what I'd be interested in tho is OTC and/or listed option prop trading on emerging mrkts, such as Russia or Brasil. I traded options on practically all Ruskies' oil and gas companies and on RTSI of coz - LOVED IT! Brasil is also very juicy - thez one complication tho - all trading is in Sao Paolo and I hate Clube de Futebol Sao Paolo

 

[stoploss please]

Well today was hairy scary on the old ES. Have they caught Osama Bin Liner. I wish they would. Don't need any more heart attacks.

 

[china white]

lunch time

what do u normally do during US lunch time?

well today those of us with a sharper eye - who were not in the pub or on the beach - wud've spotted a "persistent" tick pos div going into 12:35, confirmed (courtesy of stoploss approach) by a B/O thru the yellow line (see chart) with ES "hung" in the air (by 12:35 as well). I'd say 90/10 odds something is going on - it NORMALLY does not happen over "quiet" times.

Wud've made u 12+ pts on one trade. But then u wud spend 20 lunchtimes stuck to your screens not enjoying yrself - waiting for ONE lunchtime that delivers. Is it worth it?

 

[stoploss please]

That bottom

Hi China

The good thing about that bottom was after the ES tested the area beneath the previous open and previous low and did not like it down there. The move up from there on the tick divergence was not very surprising.

However the news driven move was scary. Unfortunately I was long out of there before all hell broke loose and just sat on my hands while the rest of the action unfolded.

We also had a nice long scalp off the previous low at 11.25 that was also signalled by a divergence. The target being the extended MA.

The move up at 14.50 was a nice 123 confirmed by a divergence and a bounce off the MA and the 61 % fib area.

The reverse at 15.30 was a simple punt off the previous high. The Tick did make a nice double top in the MA.

I suppose apart from the news and the expiration skewing things, it just shows that by marking your charts with horizontal areas of importance, you will find that your set ups, be it through tick divergence, RSI, Mystic Meg have a lot more value.

 

[stoploss please]

China, need a hand with MACD

Hi China

I am using one minute charts as it gives me a heads up with regards the strength of any move. It also allows me to get in some nice counter trend scalps and more precis trend and reversal entries.

I have applied your MACD 5 35 10 and it seems to be working ok. I have not really considered what settings I should apply. As it is your baby, do you have any ideas.

The chart posted shows MACD and trend in gear, red arrow and reversal points in green.

Cheers
SLP

 

[china white]

i am very comfortable with (5,35,10) on any time scale. From 2 min (shortest I use) to hourly and daily. Tried several settings in me life - came across (5,35,10) - and liked it most.

 

[stoploss please]

Cheers China

 

[stoploss please]

The Tick revisited

This a visual representation of what I am looking for when it comes to Tick divergence. This method can also be used to enter your trend trades. If you look closely, these double tops and bottoms can be found all over the shop. You therefore have to judge which entries can be taken and which ones can be ignored.

 

[bgold]

I have been following your post on $TICK. Very interesting. In attempt to redraw your chart (in esignal), it looks as if I am failing miserably (see attach)
SL, can you help me on the way and clarify how to draw the chart.
thanks