Trading ES (Q1 2004)

[china white]

I am going to pick the ball with this new thread - Trading Spooz in the 1st quarter of 2004.

As for my 1st post - remember I was faffing about :cheesy: Andrew's pitchfork analysis before - we just had a classic bounce off 1142.5 - its current upper bound today.

 

[china white]

today's moves

short in the 1st hour at about 1141 - on screaming neg divs across indices: NDX/SPX and especially SOX/Comp. BEWARE tho - BIX strength is pointing to further upside.

Rev to L at 1134.75 - a tricky tick pos div, but given overall NO-TREND day with neg SOX secondary cross - u already expect to buy BELOW 1st hour Lower Pivot.

later on - a failed tick neg div - Rev to S and out flat and a further "real" :cheesy: tick neg div at 15:00. As shown on the chart a clear clue later on from Tick's momentum where to cover Short. Which Mr China White did not do and ended up flat on the 2nd Short :cheesy:

 

[china white]

btw lads/lasses - just crossed me mind - we had a "minor change" of +0.12 on McClellan Oscillator on 16/01 - I hvnt got the numbers for Tuesday yet - but anyway thez a SIGNIFICANT chance of McClose on Wednesday. Especially if it turns out that last session's change was another "pos minor change". Keep yr eyes open

 

[china white]

skim - just changed me avatar to show respect for the dark side on this thread! and to avoid further accusations of scratching me nose extensively on tick divergencies

 

[china white]

well McClellan for Tuesday was +4.55 - not exactly 2 "minor changes" in a row - but I am still seeing a reasonable chance of a McClose today.

 

[anmolway]

china what do you mean by mcclose?

thanks

 

[hillbillie]

macd for dummies (12/1)

 

[hillbillie]

Re: cci for dummies yesterday

 

[china white]

mate it is usually a 1% plus on the close strong trend day, with a 75% chance of the trend being in the direction of the "minor change", and a 25% chance of the trend being contrary.

 

[hillbillie]

Divergence hindsight

 

[eminem]

anmolway, have a look here http://www.pitstock.com/mcclellan.html

Should explain it I hope.

 

[mombasa]

lovely stuff china

PS Bonus day today - ppl seem happy - only day in the year when us contractors feel left out

all the gossip in the pub later ......

 

[china white]

careful with MACD divs

HB,

very nice analysis. However keep in mind that not all MACD divergencies r alike, see attachment (courtesy of http://voodootrader.com/ta_x.htm)

 

[hillbillie]

Re: careful with MACD divs

Hey Linda's in the club too!!( followed voodoo, KingCambo, Scamman amongst others)

CCI and MACD plus Fib confirmation do seem to work but not on weak trend days.

 

[china white]

mate to be honest I dropped CCI long time ago - even tho I do know CM uses it brilliantly - it is just not my cup of tea

HB - in our sys thez no such thing as a weak trend. At any particular time pivot it is either a trend or a non-trend day. Non-trend => Tick is the primary indicator. Trend => follow the trend on pullbacks to Naz 40ema/5min.

There is however a twist called aberration. But thats a completely different can of worms personally I'd say dividing trends into strong, medium and weak - is just overloading your trading sys. IMO of coz

 

[ChartMan]

Minor correction, CW , I don't use CCI at all now, even though it's on my charts.....

 

[china white]

CM - sorry mate

 

[hillbillie]

stocs du jour

BTW is Voodoo Linda?

 

[china white]

no mate. its 2 very different ppl as far as I know

 

[china white]

Voila - as Delboy wud say

Classic aberration day - L 1134 worst, even if u did not play tick divs on the way and just held it into the close - easy 12+ pts.