Words fail me. Having talked myself into believing that the dow would drop,having clearly broken through a long term channel,how do I get out of this one?
Well, one has to take what one sees and apply the appropriate analysis. I was right, the market proved me wrong. That's the correct appraisal. And so it should be with all your trades. You trade what you see. When the market decides to go in a different direction, you weren't WRONG. BUT you MUST close that trade and move on.
Today's DOW was a great start, and quickly turned into a paint watcher. Most of the afternoon in the chat room was spent discussing whether this or that was an RS switch or an SR switch. We finally got that cleared up. The bottom line is, you'll generally only get one of each during a session. So where was it?
The first was an SR switch, soon after the open. It became apparent at 15:33 where RSI pulled back to 80 from 60. The second, an RS Switch was at around 17:00 on CCI. For those with a Bull fettish there was a hint in RSI at 18:49......
A classic day for guaging moves from the RSI /Price ratios....
You'll also notice that the "step ups" were all about 35 points, making target calculations very easy. The hard part was in deciding when/if to take profits.
We discussed in the chatroom about pullback/support, some suggesting 8400. My suggestion was 8438 based on RSI/Price ratios and we pulled back to 8436!
It was also useful to remember key support/resistance values from last week of 8440/8460 and they came into play today, being a key decision range.
The other discussion point was the ND that was quickly evident from the off. Are you greedy or do you bank a profit when TA tells you it's time to bank?. Well, today, either way would have been a good choice. The correct choice was to bank at 8460 around 16:00 and sit out the paint drying excercise. Another day, the price would have dropped right off into a short entry, but not today.
Just look at the RSI /Price ratio on the rise- 50 to 160, over 3:1 Look carefully at the ratio on the pullbacks- just the opposite- 1:3
It should have been very obvious very quicky that this move had long legs and did not want down.
After all that, the next entry was another long, taken from the 8460 breakout and the RS Switch on CCI and another 30 odd points. This move was doomed from the start, moving straight into ND from the first peak. Maybe just a break even on this trade....
Just one more thing. There was a big bull flag that started just after 16:00. This was a trade, but it failed. There was nothing wrong in trading the bull flag breakout. BUT did you get the target right? It was 20 points from the bottom of the flag. That made 8464 and the target was just reached. Then it failed to continue. Watcing ES futs at that time, it lagged well behind, making me suspicious....nonetheless a valid entry in my opinion. Taken for a small loss.
And that takes me back to my opening waffle. Right decision, market didn't agree.Close trade. Move on to the next trade.
Other comments recently read.... the war is over, the maket has fallen as much as it wants, so back to normality. Still, trade what you see, and not what you, or someone else thinks......
Well, one has to take what one sees and apply the appropriate analysis. I was right, the market proved me wrong. That's the correct appraisal. And so it should be with all your trades. You trade what you see. When the market decides to go in a different direction, you weren't WRONG. BUT you MUST close that trade and move on.
Today's DOW was a great start, and quickly turned into a paint watcher. Most of the afternoon in the chat room was spent discussing whether this or that was an RS switch or an SR switch. We finally got that cleared up. The bottom line is, you'll generally only get one of each during a session. So where was it?
The first was an SR switch, soon after the open. It became apparent at 15:33 where RSI pulled back to 80 from 60. The second, an RS Switch was at around 17:00 on CCI. For those with a Bull fettish there was a hint in RSI at 18:49......
A classic day for guaging moves from the RSI /Price ratios....
You'll also notice that the "step ups" were all about 35 points, making target calculations very easy. The hard part was in deciding when/if to take profits.
We discussed in the chatroom about pullback/support, some suggesting 8400. My suggestion was 8438 based on RSI/Price ratios and we pulled back to 8436!
It was also useful to remember key support/resistance values from last week of 8440/8460 and they came into play today, being a key decision range.
The other discussion point was the ND that was quickly evident from the off. Are you greedy or do you bank a profit when TA tells you it's time to bank?. Well, today, either way would have been a good choice. The correct choice was to bank at 8460 around 16:00 and sit out the paint drying excercise. Another day, the price would have dropped right off into a short entry, but not today.
Just look at the RSI /Price ratio on the rise- 50 to 160, over 3:1 Look carefully at the ratio on the pullbacks- just the opposite- 1:3
It should have been very obvious very quicky that this move had long legs and did not want down.
After all that, the next entry was another long, taken from the 8460 breakout and the RS Switch on CCI and another 30 odd points. This move was doomed from the start, moving straight into ND from the first peak. Maybe just a break even on this trade....
Just one more thing. There was a big bull flag that started just after 16:00. This was a trade, but it failed. There was nothing wrong in trading the bull flag breakout. BUT did you get the target right? It was 20 points from the bottom of the flag. That made 8464 and the target was just reached. Then it failed to continue. Watcing ES futs at that time, it lagged well behind, making me suspicious....nonetheless a valid entry in my opinion. Taken for a small loss.
And that takes me back to my opening waffle. Right decision, market didn't agree.Close trade. Move on to the next trade.
Other comments recently read.... the war is over, the maket has fallen as much as it wants, so back to normality. Still, trade what you see, and not what you, or someone else thinks......