ES Trading Journal with Supply and Demand for Charity

[Pazienza]

Paz, here's my angle. Why should i believe DT, anymore than i believe the OP? For some strange reason, DT expects me to believe that he has not tampered with any of his postings. Why?

I don't know. This it what matters for me:

 

[kimo'sabby]

I don't know. This it what matters for me:

I believe DT, is a lulz merchant, in his own little twisted way. DT, is a double bluffer. DT, tries to make himself appear more believable by making others less believable. DT has blew his own cover, by trying to blow up other people.

Anyone for a blow-up doll? DT, will blow it up for you, that's what he does.

 

[DionysusToast]

For this:

Paz, here's my angle. Why should i believe DT, anymore than i believe the OP? For some strange reason, DT expects me to believe that he has not tampered with any of his postings. Why?

See this:

I don't know. This it what matters for me:

 

[kimo'sabby]

For this:



See this:

DT, you shouldn't post your paint shop pro results, not even for the lulz.

 

[DionysusToast]

I believe DT, is a lulz merchant,

Correct!

in his own little twisted way. DT, is a double bluffer. DT, tries to make himself appear more believable by making others less believable. DT has blew his own cover, by trying to blow up other people.

Extremely lulzworthy. To be honest, I always have and always will found this poking of dodgy trade journals a larf. Even from way, way before I wrote that niche bit of software that wouldn't appeal to 99.9999% of people on this site anyway.

Anyone for a blow-up doll? DT, will blow it up for you, that's what he does.

If the guy in the Elvis suit appeals - I can probably have a lifelike model made for you.

 

[DionysusToast]

DT, you shouldn't post your paint shop pro results, not even for the lulz.

Just upping the ante. Maybe the OP will now show us charts with entry/exit marks from his platform.

BTW - the photoshop excuse is nonsense IMO. You have to be quite talented to properly photoshop something so it doesn't show up when you zoom in.

 

[kimo'sabby]

Just upping the ante. Maybe the OP will now show us charts with entry/exit marks from his platform.

BTW - the photoshop excuse is nonsense IMO. You have to be quite talented to properly photoshop something so it doesn't show up when you zoom in.

DT, it's not all negative. To be such an accomplished blagger as your good self is a skill set that paralells the skills of a good trader. You are good matey.

 

[DionysusToast]

'accomplished blagger'

- that's going on my resume.
- is it possible to get your full name & address as a reference?

 

[kimo'sabby]

'accomplished blagger'

- that's going on my resume.
- is it possible to get your full name & address as a reference?

Lol. PM incoming.

 

[DionysusToast]

Thanks. I have to go now - I am needed elsewhere on the board...

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/132512-new-trading-school-ideas.html

Hey guys

Im a student and i started to teach people how to trade as a student job. I was hoping you guys could give me some great ideas to consider.

if you google Tutanag you'll find my site but i am really just looking for ideas. Super excited!

Shout Out to ZAN. thanks for all the help.

Can't wait to see his trades, although he may not get the benefit of the doubt from the mods, cause it's not for charity... he's just looking for ideas here, not customers

 

[kimo'sabby]

Thanks. I have to go now - I am needed elsewhere on the board...

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/132512-new-trading-school-ideas.html



Can't wait to see his trades, although he may not get the benefit of the doubt from the mods, cause it's not for charity... he's just looking for ideas here, not customers

Good luck with it, DT. I'd hazard a guess as to what you are about to encounter,...but i think you've been on these boards long enough.

Toodle pip.

 

[EminiPicksDotCom]

supply and demand quiz

look at following charts and see if you can figure out which way price goes based on the information given. the charts have EMAs and on the bottom is volume plotted as cumm delta. On both charts, price has retested previous lows.





no cheating and I will post the chart with the outcome in my next post. to some of you this might seem easy but I am starting at the basics so newbies can get a firm grip of what I look for in trade setups.

 

[DionysusToast]

Re: supply and demand quiz

look at following charts and see if you can figure out which way price goes based on the information given. the charts have EMAs and on the bottom is volume plotted as cumm delta. On both charts, price has retested previous lows.

Good question.

I am sure your answer will be accompanied with an account statement showing where you actually entered & exited.

It is of course, impossible to tell what happens next.

The EMAs are totally irrelevant. They are as much use as t1ts on a bull. There is no benefit whatsoever to them being there.

The cumulative delta is telling you that there are more sellers at each re-test. The following theories may be applied:

1 - Support areas are areas where there are standing orders. At each hit, these standing orders are consumed and so support weakens. Therefore support will break.
2 - The lows on the chart show divergence with the lows on the delta. The delta shows lower lows (more market sell orders) but the chart doesn't. These sellers will overcome.
3 - The lows on the chart show divergence with the lows on the delta. The delta shows lower lows (more market sell orders) but the chart doesn't. The lack of move down shows that buyers on limit orders are starting to accumulate. They are absorbing the selling shown on the delta and that is why price isn't moving down. Therefore price will move up.

There is no correct answer. The chart shows what has already happened. The big unknown with trading is who is waiting to enter next. No matter who got in, you never know who else may have their finger over the button to screw things up for you. Such is life.

Now - at this point, there are stops underneath all of those hits of support. The more time it hits that support & bounces off, the more retail traders get long and the more pain there is to the downside. Unless someone is defending that area (which happens), the price will move to those stops below.

So in this case, the thing that is most likely (regardless of what actually happened) is:

1 - it breaks the low and takes out the stops
2 - it then moves back up the way everyone thought it would anyway

So - if I had to pick one outcome, it would not be a move up OR a move down, it would be a move down and then a move up.

Now - how you actually enter and exit at such a point in the market is a different matter entirely.

I look forward to the correct answer from the teacher.

to some of you this might seem easy but I am starting at the basics so newbies can get a firm grip of what I look for in trade setups.

Anyone that finds this 'easy' has read too many TA books and is not considering the position people are putting themselves in and the opportunities this presents LARGE day trading firms.

 

[EminiPicksDotCom]

okay here are the results. but first let me clear up a few things.

We are not trying to predict the future, nor are we trying to find the holy grail.

The reason for these posts are to start learning of what it really takes to be successful trading. Trading is not about predicting market movement. IMO, trading is finding the highest probability situations and take advantage of them along with proper risk management. at any point in trading, you have a 50% chance of being right.

It is that simple. nothing more, nothing less. Of course anyone can try to make it as complicated as possible and bash every system and every indicator but in the end, I don't know of anyone who can predict the future so in essence unless you can predict the future you need risk management.

As dyonsustoast states that EMAs are useless, I tend to disagree. if that is the case, everything on a chart is useless. I don't know of anything that works more accurately and less accurately than EMAs or anything else.

EMA, Price Action, Volume, Stoch, RSI all work sometime and for different reasons and they all don't work sometimes for other reasons. Even price on a chart is useless if you rely on it as your sole piece of information.

What I am trying to say is you have to be smarter than the indicators you are putting on a chart whether it be EMAs or candles or volume. You have to be able to understand that alone all of those things will get you killed in different markets for different reasons.

One of the biggest problems with new traders (and old traders alike) is that they try to reinvent the wheel and try to make things more difficult than they are. Maybe because if it is simple then they don't seem so smart in the end. Trading is not complicated. let me say that again, trading is not complicated. traders make trading complicated. primarily because they have egos and want to always be right.

Like I mentioned before, If I had a system that was 90% right and I posted it on this forum, I guarantee that 90% of the people that used it would blow their accounts trading it. Not because it doesnt work but because they would over analyze it and overcomplicate it and not follow the rules and not have discipline to follow it to the tee.

Everything I do when I take a trade doesn't work all the time and I don't profess that it does. I also am completely different than most traders in that I am not looking for the glory of hitting homeruns in the market. I look for 4 to 8 tick and I am very happy doing it. 4 to 8 ticks is nothing to brag about but again consistentsy is key.

And lastly, the charts I just posted to ask the quiz questions werent trades I took they are just charts I posted to post some educational stuff on my thread since the last few posts have been nothing but bickering and that was what I was trying to avoid. The purpose of this thread was to be educational and want to keep that going.

biggest thing I wanted to show on these 2 charts is the volume info that the cumm delta is showing. notice on the first setup that the cumm delta was making a lower low even though the price was still retesting the previous low.



On the second setup when the low held notice how the cumm delta was already moving up as the low was retested.



Yes I know you can make it as complicated as you want and break it down into stop here and there and institutions defending areas and blah blah blah.

Of course when you get more advanced you can start spending more time figuring out every possible market internal and why and how it happens but in the beginning you have to just break it down to the simplest forms and look for high probability setups and be able to identify, quantify and qualify them instantly and pull the trigger. in the end the outcome is going to be either that you were right or that you were wrong.

The biggest concern that you should have is that if you are wrong that you have the proper trade management in the form of stops in place to minimize losses.

Let me just reiterate what I am saying so I dont get misquoted. I am saying trading is simple not easy. there is a difference.

stick to the basics and dont complicate things. Cumm delta divergence is just one piece of the puzzle not the holy grail.

Learning discipline is the first step to successful trading not learning technical analysis. don't put the carriage in front of the horse.

hope this helps.

See you all tomorrow.

G

Lead, follow or get out of the way.

 

[Pazienza]

One thing I really wish you hadn't done.

I am not saying that MAs are useless - they are to me, but if you can use them, great. But did you really have to write on your second chart "Price is rejected by the 50 EMA"?

Really? You honestly think that?

 

[EminiPicksDotCom]

One thing I really wish you hadn't done.

I am not saying that MAs are useless - they are to me, but if you can use them, great. But did you really have to write on your second chart "Price is rejected by the 50 EMA"?

Really? You honestly think that?

Pazienza

Price being rejected by the 50ema is not a literal price didn't move up because the EMAs prevented it. In my next educational post I will show how I use EMA to plan entries. EMAs in certain market conditions act as support and resistance not because they are magical or can tell the future but because traders use them. it is the same as floor pivots and fibs. They work not because they have special powers, they work often because the masses are using them and as a successful trader you want to see what the masses are doing and thinking. I trade for ticks so rejection at know price levels and the fade or breakout of them is all I need to get my few ticks. So when I say price was rejected by the ema is saying that at that price level price was unfair and didn't hold up.

I do have my own terminology for things and the way I explain things. sometimes it doesn't coincide with regular trader talk but I try to keep it simple.

Hope that helps.

G
Lead, follow or get out of the way.

 

[pboyles]

Pazienza

Price being rejected by the 50ema is not a literal price didn't move up because the EMAs prevented it. In my next educational post I will show how I use EMA to plan entries. EMAs in certain market conditions act as support and resistance not because they are magical or can tell the future but because traders use them. it is the same as floor pivots and fibs. They work not because they have special powers, they work often because the masses are using them and as a successful trader you want to see what the masses are doing and thinking. I trade for ticks so rejection at know price levels and the fade or breakout of them is all I need to get my few ticks. So when I say price was rejected by the ema is saying that at that price level price was unfair and didn't hold up.

I do have my own terminology for things and the way I explain things. sometimes it doesn't coincide with regular trader talk but I try to keep it simple.

Hope that helps.

G
Lead, follow or get out of the way.

G.

Why dont you just show these guys a screenshot of your entries and exits? That will shut them up. Do one just like mine, delete your account number etc.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

notice on the first setup that the cumm delta was making a lower low even though the price was still retesting the previous low.

looks to me just like a simple breakdown of a descending triangle

sorry, somebody mentioned something about keeping it simple ??

 

[Pazienza]

G.

Why dont you just show these guys a screenshot of your entries and exits? That will shut them up. Do one just like mine, delete your account number etc.

I don't want to see one, I haven't criticised him or his methods or accused him of anything. I was just (hopefully) joining in the discussion in a helpful way.

I've really no interest in seeing statements or anything else. I hope I have not been disruptive on this thread.

 

[DionysusToast]

G.

Why dont you just show these guys a screenshot of your entries and exits? That will shut them up. Do one just like mine, delete your account number etc.

Because he's not taking the trades? Just using this to sucker people in.

Of course, if he's one of the .000000000001% of trainers that actually trade - we will roll out the red carpet.