[PORTFOLIO] CavaliereVerde investing

[CavaliereVerde]

Veterans portfolio, monthly update

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Veterans portfolio, monthly update

 

[trilobite]

Veterans portfolio, monthly update

View attachment 311738

I've never been able to work out if the portfolio return view includes all fees deducted (performance fee, management fee) and any positive or negative divergence. Are you able to clarify what it shows?

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Return is net.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Veterans portfolio, monthly update

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Veterans portfolio, monthly update

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Veterans portfolio, monthly update

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Veterans portfolio, monthly update

ALL TIME HIGH!
More than 10%

 

[morehastelessspeed]

Congratulations! So it seems 5% anual profit is not an unrealistic target...

 

[Stokes Bay]

Looking more and more like 👇for SKI ...

View attachment 307736

Hi Captain Currency

Apologies I never did provide an explanation for the poor performance in SKI. Apologies also to all those who have been disappointed by the performance in SKI.

The strategy behind SKI has developed over time and will no doubt continue to develop (for the better or worse) as I gain more experience and education from the markets. It does however continue to be based on my interpretation of the macro environment. This will never change.

Most of SKI's gains prior to 2021 came from a long gold position. I had short bets on SPX from time to time but these short positions were never confirmed by the market action; i.e. SPX continued higher.

The failure in 2021 came out of frustration with SPX never rolling over, a false confidence I was right and many misinterpreted market signals leading me to believe the timing was correct to hold a short SPX position. In H1 2022, I also poorly timed my entries, overleveraged what little equity was left in the account and got stopped out making performance worse than it needed to be.

In short, I failed to stay disciplined and wait. However this experience has taught me an important lesson. Do not expose yourself to your weaknesses. I learned also that other market participants do not see the market the way I do and hence will not act in the same way. Be humble and stay patient - 2 lessons someone with my years of experience should already and probably did know, but did not pay sufficient attention.

I have therefore made the change to only trade with longer term expectations (months) and keep leverage low enough never to be forced to think about margin or losses.

In 2022, SPX has rolled over. Whilst we're all right at times and therefore this could just now be luck on my part, I think SPX is finally reflecting the underlying macro-fundamentals. I've written a number of posts on my website over time which give my views on the fragile fundamentals of the economy and the next few years will likely be extremely volatile and hopefully provide some excellent opportunities.

Whilst I will try and manage the short position by adding and removing size to try and take advantage of what I expect to be some very strong reversals in 2022, I feel no need to 'push' / overleverage this position.

I have also started another Darwin LEW using CFDs. This allowed me to trade sector ETFs and single company CFDs. This CFD account also allows me to be long TLT (short treasury yields) since I am of the view that once a recessionary view is more widely accepted (and shows itself in the numbers) long dated yields will fall. However, the macro thesis is the same and hence it is also short equity and long gold.


In summary, whilst I don't expect anyone to come back to SKI anytime soon, I greatly thank those who have consciously stayed in.

I fully intend to run SKI with a focused and long term view. Given both SKI and LEW are macro based neither of these require a significant time commitment. I do however now trade full time as a job since December 2021. A decision many no doubt will be surprised by.

I also run Darwin WEL which is under another account name since this is part of my corporate holdings.

Stokes Bay.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Veterans portfolio, monthly update

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Veterans portfolio, monthly update

View attachment 319210

Can you give us an update about the fees you had paid (in %) in these 2 1/2 years?
Last time (in August 2021) you wrote it cuts the profit by a third.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

I can confirm the reduction of one third.
Real life results and fees are consitent with what we can see from the backtester.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Veterans portfolio, monthly update

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Veterans portfolio, monthly update

 

[CavaliereVerde]

So it seems 5% anual profit is not an unrealistic target...

Time to speak about my expectations.
The average gross return of a darwin is 10% annual.
It goes down to 7% of net profit after performance and management fees.
JTL seems to be an outlier but other estabilished darwins are very close to this average.
This is unleveraged so I am expecting more than 20% at x3 .

 

[CavaliereVerde]

The portfolio has been expanded from 5 to 6 darwins.
Using the money withdrawn from my trading accounts I will gradually upscale my investments.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

rebalance their Darwins in Weeks instead of hours

I think the result of one week and even one month is mostly random.
Stock portfolios are rebalanced with a min frequency of one quarter.
The less you change the more you gain.

 

[morehastelessspeed]

The average gross return of a darwin is 10% annual.

It is indeed possible to find a handful of such Darwins - on hindsight.

 

[morehastelessspeed]

Using the money withdrawn from my trading accounts I will gradually upscale my investments.

I am moving in the opposite direction, but I sincerely wish you good luck.