[PORTFOLIO] Model Portfolio by Darwinex

[CavaliereVerde]

Old community discussion -->https://community.darwinex.com/t/darwinex-model-portfolio/6025
https://www.darwinex.com/investors/darwins-performance
This is not a live portfolio but a backtest created by Darwinex as a showcase.

The first backtest has been created at the beginning of July 2019, had 20 darwins showing a past return higher than 20% in 2 years.

The out of sample part realized a 10% loss when the first porfolio was discontinued on 14 February 2020 (8months).

Going back to second backtest we have these 9 darwins with a forward return of ~ -5% so far (7months).

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Here I removed the 3 losing darwins. Hindsight power! 😁
It is useful to have a preview of darwins average annualized net return, something like 7%.
As you can see the impact of performance and management fees it pretty heavy.

 

[Gargamel]

The out of sample part realized a 10% loss when the first porfolio was discontinued on 14 February 2020 (8months).
Since than we have these 9 darwins with a forward return of ~ -5% so far (7months).

Given that in the meantime Darwinex practically halved the risk in darwins:going from fixed 10%VaR to variable 3.25-6.5% Var,the result of first and second Model portfolios in live is around -10% in 7-8 months in terms of old risk and -5% in terms of new risk regime.No improvement.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

And here comes the THIRD model portfolio!!!

Will this last more than 8 months?

 

[NVP]

Can you switch jn and out of strategies with zero fees ?....one obvious approach is to review all elements on a monthly or faster basis and keep switching in and out performers

 

[CavaliereVerde]

I found a screenshot of the first porfolio of July 2019 and I have updated the first post.
By the way the 3rd one is working well so far and can be a good starting point for investors.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

New Year cleaning for the Model Portfolio v3 , after only 2 months...
Hindsight power, Removed TDD and PLF

 

[Gargamel]

PLF was loser even according @CavaliereVerde generous criteria(<0% on 1yr and 2yr timeframe) and TDD had a car accident :almost -11% in a single month(clearly inadmissible for low risk darwins and big departure from his previous behaviour).
But such frequent adjusting of Model Portfolio renders it completely useless as benchmark or guidance.Old customers are aware of it and know they must do research themselves,but newcomers could be badly surprised.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

TDD had a car accident :almost -11% in a single month(clearly inadmissible for low risk darwins and big departure from his previous behaviour).

It is the same car accident happened to YZZ in March 2019, pretty normal for realistic trackrecords.
They simply want to preserve a decent chart, investors are short sighted.
I think they revise something every time total return falls under 10%.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

29/01/2021

 

[trilobite]

29/01/2021

View attachment 295363

Hmm, seems to be on the turn again. Never mind, I'm sure it will be fixed in the next reallocation.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

IMO this portfolio should work, even if mine is working better...
Let's see if there is any persistence here or it's pure marketing.

 

[TLN]

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@CavaliereVerde sir : what happens with this member? Is it a self promotion?

 

[CavaliereVerde]

@TrungLN
It has been reported

 

[CavaliereVerde]

26/02/2021

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

26/02/2021

View attachment 296993

It's time for a redesign or a new composition.
The net profit of 8.86% after 2 years is not exciting - and it is a backtest, useless for investors.
The one or the other would not have been selected 2 years ago, and they removed 2020 losers like TDD .
IMO this chart shows the problem for every investor - not success.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Removing past losers would ben even more useless.
Removing the losers does not remove the loss.
Backtests are useless if you keep changing them.
This portfolio is a reference for buy and hold, momentum investing is another thing.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

That's their description for that repainted portfolio

The next one to kick out is YZZ with nearly 10% loss.
What's missing are usuable investor tools and there's no plan to add them. Also I doubt that it is possible with the latest "improvement" with Darwin 5.0 (setting VaR to 6.5 %).

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

This portfolio is representative for buy and hold

No, representative to "have bought" and "have held" with big luck in the selection

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Instead of reallocating or removing underperformers now they added 2 darwins.
TXR by our fellow @TrainerTXR 👍

QJU that is a recent migration so pretty usess to improve the backtest...
Its divergence is huge so it is a useless darwin...