[PORTFOLIO] Just Next Level Portfolios

[CavaliereVerde]

I think an Ex of 2.3 means that the sample of decisions is not significant.
If you coinflip in 100 different accounts one of them can be so lucky to produce this kind of trackrecord.
A professor in finance is certainly aware of this.
The professor created a total of 10 darwins, 3 have been closed, one is the "winner" ZGR .
Survivorship bias is a very important concept to evaluate stocks and trading strategies.

 

[JustNextLevel]

I think an Ex of 2.3 means that the sample of decisions is not significant.
If you coinflip in 100 different accounts one of them can be so lucky to produce this kind of trackrecord.
A professor in finance is certainly aware of this.
The professor created a total of 10 darwins, 3 have been closed, one is the "winner" ZGR .
Survivorship bias is a very inportant concept to evaluate stocks and trading strategies.

If it's true.......it's unethical! Seems like there are way too many traders cheating their way into Investors' money.

I have not created extra accounts to produce improved results. I don't delete my Darwins, and all my Darwins have started on the Darwinex platform and no 3rd party results......and I trade in all of them!

I did not realize there were so many "fakes" out there!

 

[CavaliereVerde]

I did not realize there were so many "fakes" out there!

99% + is fake.
The context is much more important than return and DD.
Why the professor is trading only with 1000 ?
Why there is only one investor with 7k? probably the professor himself.... ?
What do we know about the strategy a part of "support and resistences" ?
The professor is very far from a professinal trader that lives from his trading.
Few months, few money...

 

[TLN]

99% + is fake.
The context is much more important than return and DD.
Why the professor is trading only with 1000 ?
Why there is only one investor with 7k? probably the professor himself.... ?
What do we know about the strategy a part of "support and resistences" ?
The professor is very far from a professinal trader that lives from his trading.
Few months, few money...

No need to discuss much
Just look at this, how he traded? I think everything clear.

 

[JustNextLevel]

I think there is a misunderstanding between past return and edge.
Past return is 99% of times due to luck, especially on small samples and short trackrecords.
We can't calculate an annualized return extrapolating the return of few months,
To speak about edge we need at least 3-5 years of trackrecord.
Picking the highest return of the last month or quarter has no value.

I tend to disagree with quite a few statements here, and no disrespect. Everyone to their opinion.

Past return is 99% of times due to luck, especially on small samples and short trackrecords.

I wholly disagree here.
Past return is probably the best, and most important criteria to use for future results.

To speak about edge we need at least 3-5 years of trackrecord.

This is definitely not true in my opinion. Trading edges hardly ever last more than 3 years. Strategies leak out or people figure them out and they lose their edge when more people use the same strategy. These companies that sell you a trading robot that has worked amazingly over the past year, sell them to thousands of people. It works fine for 3 months and then you can't make a dime and just lose money. The last years' result is more than sufficient in selecting a Darwin that has an edge.

A casino does not need 3-5 years to show a profit. The results will show from the first roll of the dice. The edge will show in the statistical chance they have against you with every bet being placed.

I also believe that probably 80% of traders change their Darwins to improve it. If you don't take the most recent results into consideration you will never why it is doing so well and maybe it's not just luck

Picking the highest return of the last month or quarter has no value.

For me, the most recent results are the best to use and maybe I can prove this by comparing long term data with more recent data in a portfolio selection program over the next few months.

I have created some portfolio selections, where you can select the weighting of which period of data you want to use. You can select the longer-term data or have the shorter-term data have more weight.

I have also picked 4 criteria to select from, and also assigned a weighting to these criteria, so we can all see which criteria are important in selecting Darwins.

This could be interesting and may lay to rest some stigma's about long term track records and which criteria to use in Darwin selection.

I am nearly finished with the spreadsheet ....and I will try and post it later today.....

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Ok so try to pick short and high return trackrecords and try to make money with those darwins.
There is a shitload of short&lucky trackrecords while long ones are very rare, guess where is the value...

 

[JustNextLevel]

Everyone has their own opinion on which attributes are important for selecting a Darwin for your portfolio. And we all have different periods of data we use. Most of us want to see a long track record of great performance or a long-term graph will tip the scales into investing.

So I have created a spreadsheet where you can attribute a value to 4 criteria that are most important to you in selecting your Darwins. You also have the option to add weighting to the time period that is most important to you. For instance, if the whole years' result is important to you, then select a 100 % weighting to the 1 years result and see what happens.

I have selected the Darwins from my search criteria and some that Forum members have mentioned. I also added the 10 most invested Darwins to the list as well.

I have done a small video to explain a little more about how you can change the values and use the spreadsheet to the best advantage. It was my first take and done on a cellphone, but I hope it explains it a little better.

There are 4 criteria that were used
Edge, Monthly return, Drawdown, and Return/Drawdown Ratio. (I have now changed this and the DrawDown criteria has since been replaced with the D-Score. : Edited 7Feb)

I have created 5 portfolios, 1 Balanced as shown below with 25% weighting in each attribute and then 4 other portfolios with a 70% weighting in one of the attributes and 10% in the rest. This way we will be able to see which decision is best suited to give the best results.

Edge	25%
Exp Monthly Return	25%
D-Score	25%
Return /DD Ratio	25%
	100%

The Edge Portfolio will be selected on this basis.

Edge	70%
Exp Monthly Return	10%
D-Score	10%
Return /DD Ratio	10%
	100%

I have also created 2 versions of each portfolio, by using the longer-term data and then by using the fresher, short-term data.

You will see the portfolios on the last page in the spreadsheet with their allocation and the current results up till today for the month of February.

All the yellow sections on all the pages you can edit, as well as the returns by each Darwin for the month. I will continue to update and post this, and I think it will be an interesting learning experience for all of us.

Let me know if you pick up any mistakes (of which there could be), and I will rectify them.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

All the yellow sections on all the pages you can edit, as well as the returns by each Darwin for the month. I will continue to update and post this, and I think it will be an interesting learning experience for all of us.

I really like your work and the ideas behind it but the excel. Thanks for sharing your evaluation system.

Unfortunately is useless for own researches as it just shows a historic snapshot. I also can't edit 1 month data because the cells are in a protected sheet.

It would be much more useful if it would be possible to add a Darwin (like my ILR ) in a new row to compare it with others in your evaluation system.

 

[JustNextLevel]

I really like your work and the ideas behind it but the excel. Thanks for sharing your evaluation system.

Unfortunately is useless for own researches as it just shows a historic snapshot. I also can't edit 1 month data because the cells are in a protected sheet.

It would be much more useful if it would be possible to add a Darwin (like my ILR ) in a new row to compare it with others in your evaluation system.

Thank you,

I protected the sheet so people can't accidentally interfere with calculations or change cells. On the last page, you can change the monthly returns just beneath each Darwin. That is the return for the current month.

Ok....I will add ILR to the list..,,,,,.just for you

If you want, send me an e-mail, and I will give you the password to unprotect the worksheet and you can edit all you like.

Then I would like to know if I should add the D-Score as a Criteria? I am thinking of taking out the plain Draw Down and rather replacing it with the D-Score as Criteria. This way we can also see what effect the big D-Score Darwins have on future returns.

Plain Drawdown has very little correlation to better returns, in fact, a smaller drawdown will promote smaller returns.

Ye....I think I am going to do it...... but would like some of your opinions on this

Back to work.....

 

[Long Term]

I’m with you there on drawdowns, big drawdown can equal big return and small drawdown can equal small return, not always of course but talking from experience with my Darwin with big drawdown I have a good return and don’t like to be excluded from people’s portfolio because of my drawdown. Everyone has their own opinion and selection criteria though, I understand it’s hard to buy a big drawdown Darwin if you don’t know the trader personally.

 

[JustNextLevel]

Ok, here is the latest spreadsheet with the D-Score now as selection criteria for Darwin selection.
ILR is now added and represented in 3 portfolios (Both Edge Portfolios and 1 Best return portfolio for fresh results)

Let's see how this unfolds over the next few months. I think we all will gain some valuable information from this.

For those that want a better explanation of how the spreadsheet works....see the earlier post.
https://www.trade2win.com/threads/just-next-level-portfolios.239339/post-3183310


* (Edited 10 Feb 2021) I have removed the spreadsheet, which will only be available to my mailing list clients in the future.
I will give updates on this Forum regarding the progress though.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Ok....I will add ILR to the list..,,,,,.just for you

You made my day . Thank you so much

Then I would like to know if I should add the D-Score as a Criteria?

I think D-Score would be more a trap than useful, just for younger Darwins.
Thinking fresh I would have the following ideas for adding criteria, but I don't know whether you can take the effort behind it without the API:
- Days since max. DD
- Time (in days) needed for recovery from max. DD
- Days since last ATH (all time high)
- Days between last ATH and previous ATH
I'm sure you can make a score and part of your scoring out of it.
If you have these data, you have much better arguments for investors to trust a Darwin to produce future returns.
Most well know Darwins with high D-Score suffer in these points. And Darwinex suffers with it.
Why should an investor buy a high D-Score Darwin if he has no criteria (derived from the past of course) when he will make profit with his investment?

Edit:
Wow - I just saw ILR is on rank 13 of your evaluation system (investor index)!

 

[JustNextLevel]

You made my day . Thank you so much

....Pleasure

Thanks for all your inputs, and I think they are all great criteria to add. I might add it in the next round of Portfolio selection criteria.

Ye....I would like to know for myself if the new D-Score has any correlation to returns. I believe it could possibly be, because they have changed it to be more influenced by performance. But let's wait and see what happens over the next few weeks/months.

Edit:
Wow - I just saw ILR is on rank 13 of your evaluation system (investor index)!

Ye... you have a seriously good start, and I see you are included in 3 portfolios for this month........ impressive!! You now have a reputation to live up to mate! Good luck!

And unfortunately, you have a zero rating for your D-Score, as you have the lowest of them all, but this is your time to show that D-Score is not what people should be looking at!!

 

[JustNextLevel]

I have decided to expand on the Darwin selection spreadsheet and added one extra criteria (as if I don't have enough work). It is an Edge and Returns combo, which I think could also be a strong indicator of future returns. I have also rectified 2 mistakes in the spreadsheet.

There are now 12 Portfolio's going forward with one Balanced and the other each having a 60% preference in one criterion and 10% in the rest. There are also 2 versions, one with longer-term data and the other version with more of the latest data. This way we will be able to see which criteria and if the older or newer data is most important.

You can all change your own criteria preference levels as you like, in the yellow marked sections on the spreadsheet as well as on the weighting page and you can also update the latest returns on the February sheet below the Darwins. I updated it today.

When you change the settings, it will now give a return result for your selections on the February page for your portfolio. It is the last portfolio and will be according to your custom settings. It is very interesting to play around with it and see the results changing. For Instance, you can change the timeframe weighting to 90% for the 3 months and 10% for the last month, and then change your settings so you only have the best 3 or 5 Darwins in your portfolio.

Because the February portfolios are different from the January ones (and we are experimenting ), I have used the lowest-performing portfolio to continue into the next month. The worst portfolio did 7,12% after commissions and fees and the other portfolios will continue from this level for their year-to-date results.

I will need to make another video to explain all the new changes but not sure when.

January portfolios did 8% -12,8% and the February ones have already done between 1% - 4% for the first 6 trading days. No losses on any of the portfolios.

* (Edited 10 Feb 2021) I have removed the spreadsheet, which will only be available to my mailing list clients in the future.
I will give updates on this Forum regarding the progress though.

 

[JustNextLevel]

I have expanded on the selection process of Darwins for portfolios. I have compiled 20 Portfolios according to different kinds of selection criteria and various degrees of stringency for selection.

There are Diamond, Gold, Platinum, and Titanium Portfolios, with the latter selecting the premium Darwins.
The Diamond Portfolios are selected from 30 of the best Darwins in different categories. The selection criteria are based on a large amount of data over the past year to identify which has the best Return to Risk ratio, the ones that have a true edge, and which will have the highest performance with the Darwinex Risk manager.

Below, the first column shows the return for the 2 weeks of February, and the next column is the returns for the year to date.

The Platinum portfolios use the 10 best Darwins and implement Dynamic weighting to optimize exposures. These are a selection of the premium Darwin strategies available for investment.

The Titanium Portfolios only uses the 5 best on the Darwinex platform. These are the World Champion of Darwins and meet all the criteria to the highest standard and exceeds them. I have identified these strategies as trading with a substantial edge in the market and exploiting their returns for investors to the maximum through the Darwinex Risk Manager, giving the highest returns with very low-risk levels.

January portfolios did 8% to 12,8% and the February selections have already done between 3,5% to 9,7% for the first 2 weeks. No losses on any of the portfolios.

I have posted the data on the Trade2Win Forum previously, but I have removed it, as I will only be sharing the Diamond portfolio selections with members on my mailing list. The Gold, Platinum, and Titanium Portfolios will only be available for paid subscribers in the future.

Unfortunately, my Darwins have not made any of the portfolios this month, but they should make the list with a longer track record and improvement on the selection criteria in the weeks/months to come. I can not promote my own if I know there are better Darwins available for Investors.

I have also moved some of my funds into a live portfolio account on Thursday evening and I am using Titanium 4 selections. I will update regarding this and keep everyone posted on any changes. Below is a screenshot of the chart since Thursday.

It is a lot of work to process all the data, but I will provide the Diamond Portfolio for free over the next 2 months to everyone on the mailing list and I will try to post updates at least every 2nd week. See the Diamond Portfolio selections in the file attached. (Mailing List only)

All the best

Quintin

Those wanting to have access to the Gold, Platinum, and Titanium Portfolios can mail me should you need more information.

 

[LokshinTrader]

For those that want a better explanation of how the spreadsheet works....see the earlier post.
https://www.trade2win.com/threads/just-next-level-portfolios.239339/post-3183310

My comment is a bit off-topic, just a piece of friendly advice.
Consider using a screen recorder software for your presentation(s). It will improve the quality of your video(s).

 

[JustNextLevel]

My comment is a bit off-topic, just a piece of friendly advice.
Consider using a screen recorder software for your presentation(s). It will improve the quality of your video(s).

Yes...thank you.

I don't do videos, and I'm old school, so excuse the amateur attempt. I don't have a mic either, but I guess I should get one for next time.

Your videos are much better than mine, and nice website btw.....

 

[LokshinTrader]

Your videos are much better than mine, and nice website btw.....

Thank you

 

[JustNextLevel]

Weekly portfolio update

 

[CavaliereVerde]

@JustNextLevel
Any update?