[PORTFOLIO] Just Next Level Portfolios

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Muiris

Active member
125 225
It seems like you have an attitude ....let's not start off on the wrong foot. I don't have time to waste and respond to petty comments. I always have time for people with integrity and manners and will respond in this manner to them too.

I did say I capped it at 1000%. The Edge that I calculate is the ratio between the Value of the profitable trades devided by the value of the losing trades.

ZGR has not made 1 losing trade in 10 months of trading and 142 trades. He has a losing trade value of 0. I can not divide by 0.

I could make this a very small amount but this would give an infinite number. So I decided to cap it at 1000%.
LMAO!!!!
 

JustNextLevel

Junior member
29 42
1612526862482.png


1612526926901.png
 

JustNextLevel

Junior member
29 42
It is not so difficult to produce a lucky streak of 10 green months with a martingale, I bumped into many of these in 8 years of social investing.
It always ended with a black swan the next 1-3 months.
->https://robotwealth.com/get-rich-quick-trading-strategies-and-why-they-dont-work/
Do you think this Professor in Finance and Investing (Miguel Fernández Águila) uses martingale strategy?

Correct me if I'm wrong........ so it's like he did 142 coinflips and he won all of them?
When he loses his first trade, will he then double his "bet size" for his next trade?
Is this how his strategy will end in a Black Swan?
 

CavaliereVerde

Experienced member
1,154 1,531
I think an Ex of 2.3 means that the sample of decisions is not significant.
If you coinflip in 100 different accounts one of them can be so lucky to produce this kind of trackrecord.
A professor in finance is certainly aware of this.
The professor created a total of 10 darwins, 3 have been closed, one is the "winner" ZGR .
Survivorship bias is a very important concept to evaluate stocks and trading strategies.
 
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JustNextLevel

Junior member
29 42
I think an Ex of 2.3 means that the sample of decisions is not significant.
If you coinflip in 100 different accounts one of them can be so lucky to produce this kind of trackrecord.
A professor in finance is certainly aware of this.
The professor created a total of 10 darwins, 3 have been closed, one is the "winner" ZGR .
Survivorship bias is a very inportant concept to evaluate stocks and trading strategies.
If it's true.......it's unethical! Seems like there are way too many traders cheating their way into Investors' money.

I have not created extra accounts to produce improved results. I don't delete my Darwins, and all my Darwins have started on the Darwinex platform and no 3rd party results......and I trade in all of them!

I did not realize there were so many "fakes" out there!
 
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CavaliereVerde

Experienced member
1,154 1,531
I did not realize there were so many "fakes" out there!
99% + is fake.
The context is much more important than return and DD.
Why the professor is trading only with 1000 ?
Why there is only one investor with 7k? probably the professor himself.... ?
What do we know about the strategy a part of "support and resistences" ?
The professor is very far from a professinal trader that lives from his trading.
Few months, few money...
 

TrungLN

Active member
227 328
99% + is fake.
The context is much more important than return and DD.
Why the professor is trading only with 1000 ?
Why there is only one investor with 7k? probably the professor himself.... ?
What do we know about the strategy a part of "support and resistences" ?
The professor is very far from a professinal trader that lives from his trading.
Few months, few money...
No need to discuss much
Just look at this, how he traded? I think everything clear.
1612542483216.png
 

JustNextLevel

Junior member
29 42
I think there is a misunderstanding between past return and edge.
Past return is 99% of times due to luck, especially on small samples and short trackrecords.
We can't calculate an annualized return extrapolating the return of few months,
To speak about edge we need at least 3-5 years of trackrecord.
Picking the highest return of the last month or quarter has no value.

I tend to disagree with quite a few statements here, and no disrespect. Everyone to their opinion.

Past return is 99% of times due to luck, especially on small samples and short trackrecords.
I wholly disagree here.
Past return is probably the best, and most important criteria to use for future results.

To speak about edge we need at least 3-5 years of trackrecord.

This is definitely not true in my opinion. Trading edges hardly ever last more than 3 years. Strategies leak out or people figure them out and they lose their edge when more people use the same strategy. These companies that sell you a trading robot that has worked amazingly over the past year, sell them to thousands of people. It works fine for 3 months and then you can't make a dime and just lose money. The last years' result is more than sufficient in selecting a Darwin that has an edge.

A casino does not need 3-5 years to show a profit. The results will show from the first roll of the dice. The edge will show in the statistical chance they have against you with every bet being placed.

I also believe that probably 80% of traders change their Darwins to improve it. If you don't take the most recent results into consideration you will never why it is doing so well and maybe it's not just luck

Picking the highest return of the last month or quarter has no value.

For me, the most recent results are the best to use and maybe I can prove this by comparing long term data with more recent data in a portfolio selection program over the next few months.

I have created some portfolio selections, where you can select the weighting of which period of data you want to use. You can select the longer-term data or have the shorter-term data have more weight.

I have also picked 4 criteria to select from, and also assigned a weighting to these criteria, so we can all see which criteria are important in selecting Darwins.

This could be interesting and may lay to rest some stigma's about long term track records and which criteria to use in Darwin selection.

I am nearly finished with the spreadsheet ....and I will try and post it later today.....
 
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CavaliereVerde

Experienced member
1,154 1,531
Ok so try to pick short and high return trackrecords and try to make money with those darwins.
There is a shitload of short&lucky trackrecords while long ones are very rare, guess where is the value...:cool:
 
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JustNextLevel

Junior member
29 42
Everyone has their own opinion on which attributes are important for selecting a Darwin for your portfolio. And we all have different periods of data we use. Most of us want to see a long track record of great performance or a long-term graph will tip the scales into investing.

So I have created a spreadsheet where you can attribute a value to 4 criteria that are most important to you in selecting your Darwins. You also have the option to add weighting to the time period that is most important to you. For instance, if the whole years' result is important to you, then select a 100 % weighting to the 1 years result and see what happens.

I have selected the Darwins from my search criteria and some that Forum members have mentioned. I also added the 10 most invested Darwins to the list as well.

I have done a small video to explain a little more about how you can change the values and use the spreadsheet to the best advantage. It was my first take and done on a cellphone, but I hope it explains it a little better.


There are 4 criteria that were used
Edge, Monthly return, Drawdown, and Return/Drawdown Ratio. (I have now changed this and the DrawDown criteria has since been replaced with the D-Score. : Edited 7Feb)

I have created 5 portfolios, 1 Balanced as shown below with 25% weighting in each attribute and then 4 other portfolios with a 70% weighting in one of the attributes and 10% in the rest. This way we will be able to see which decision is best suited to give the best results.

Edge25%
Exp Monthly Return25%
D-Score25%
Return /DD Ratio25%
100%

The Edge Portfolio will be selected on this basis.

Edge70%
Exp Monthly Return10%
D-Score10%
Return /DD Ratio10%
100%


I have also created 2 versions of each portfolio, by using the longer-term data and then by using the fresher, short-term data.

You will see the portfolios on the last page in the spreadsheet with their allocation and the current results up till today for the month of February.

All the yellow sections on all the pages you can edit, as well as the returns by each Darwin for the month. I will continue to update and post this, and I think it will be an interesting learning experience for all of us.

Let me know if you pick up any mistakes (of which there could be), and I will rectify them.
 
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IlIlIlIlI

Active member
218 198
All the yellow sections on all the pages you can edit, as well as the returns by each Darwin for the month. I will continue to update and post this, and I think it will be an interesting learning experience for all of us.
I really like your work and the ideas behind it but the excel. Thanks for sharing your evaluation system.

Unfortunately is useless for own researches as it just shows a historic snapshot. I also can't edit 1 month data because the cells are in a protected sheet.

It would be much more useful if it would be possible to add a Darwin (like my ILR 🤣 ) in a new row to compare it with others in your evaluation system.
 

JustNextLevel

Junior member
29 42
I really like your work and the ideas behind it but the excel. Thanks for sharing your evaluation system.

Unfortunately is useless for own researches as it just shows a historic snapshot. I also can't edit 1 month data because the cells are in a protected sheet.

It would be much more useful if it would be possible to add a Darwin (like my ILR 🤣 ) in a new row to compare it with others in your evaluation system.
Thank you,

I protected the sheet so people can't accidentally interfere with calculations or change cells. On the last page, you can change the monthly returns just beneath each Darwin. That is the return for the current month.

Ok....I will add ILR to the list..,,,,,.just for you:ROFLMAO:

If you want, send me an e-mail, and I will give you the password to unprotect the worksheet and you can edit all you like:ROFLMAO:.

Then I would like to know if I should add the D-Score as a Criteria? I am thinking of taking out the plain Draw Down and rather replacing it with the D-Score as Criteria. This way we can also see what effect the big D-Score Darwins have on future returns.

Plain Drawdown has very little correlation to better returns, in fact, a smaller drawdown will promote smaller returns.

Ye....I think I am going to do it...... but would like some of your opinions on this

Back to work.....
 
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Long Term

Newbie
8 11
I’m with you there on drawdowns, big drawdown can equal big return and small drawdown can equal small return, not always of course but talking from experience with my Darwin with big drawdown I have a good return and don’t like to be excluded from people’s portfolio because of my drawdown. Everyone has their own opinion and selection criteria though, I understand it’s hard to buy a big drawdown Darwin if you don’t know the trader personally.
 
 
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