Best Thread Market Breadth

[Dentalfloss]

http://leavittbrothers.com/blog/index.php/2013/03/27/video-cat-a-canary-in-a-coal-mine/


Jason Levitt worried that cat not following the market....a possible warning sign

 

[isatrader]

S&P 500 / Commodities Ratio

Stocks are now favoured over commodities for the first time since the breakdown in 2000. So the current Stage 2 breakout could be a significant long term shift in the market cycle to a period favouring equities.

Stocks have underperformed commodities for 12 years, and for the last 5 years have been forming a long term Stage 1 base. This month they've completed a Stage 2 breakout above the previous highs in 2008 which they've been unable to get above until this month. The 30 month MA has also turned up and so commodities look to be on the decline versus stocks and so we could be seeing the beginnings of a long term shift back to stocks.

 

[isatrader]

The NYSE Percentage of Stocks above 50 day MA ($NYA50R) is not confirming the new highs in the market and remains below it's own 50 day MA. The relative performance versus the S&P 500 has also moved below it's 200 day MA, and so the short term moving average breath chart is giving a warning that the participation is waning while the market pushes to new highs.

 

[isatrader]

US Industry Sectors Breadth

There was three status changes this week in the sector breadth charts with two sectors (Financials and Health Care) moving back above their 10 week weighted MA and Utilities moving below it's 10 week weighted MA. Overall it was mostly an up week with 7 of the 9 sectors rising, but Basic Materials continued to decline, and dropped below it's 50% level. Industrials remains the strongest sector followed by Financials which have both been consistently outperforming so far this year.

So overall it remains very mixed in the sectors with a slight bullish bias still, but with over half of the sectors in the overbought zone currently.

Below is the data table for the Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average in each sector which I've ordered by relative strength, with the highest to the lowest percentage in each sector. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the overall NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages, plus the 1% P&F chart and line chart of the nine sectors.

 

[isatrader]

S&P 500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns

Attached is the cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns in the S&P 500 and the Oscillator chart. There was 13 breakouts and only 4 breakdowns this week in the S&P 500 and so the bulls are still in control, but as you can see on the Oscillator chart, the momentum is waning and so is giving a warning.

 

[isatrader]

Volatility Breadth Charts

Volatility Breadth Charts continue to be on Bear Alert status.

 

[isatrader]

Margin Debt

Attached is the margin debt charts, that show that people have been buying heavily on margin over the last few months which is now at the 2007 levels again. So what does it mean? From articles I've read, they suggest that if the market starts to get a bit more volatile again then we could see a rapid liquidation as people get margin calls and have to sell their most liquid assets. So this is a big warning sign that people are over extending themselves.

 

[isatrader]

Moving Average Breadth Charts - status change

The Short Term NYSE Percentage of Stocks Above their 50 day Moving Average has broken down and given a double bottom sell signal. This moves it to "Bear Confirmed" status for the first time since November 2012. Attached is the charts, and also the medium term 150 day MA 1 Box by 1 Box Reversal chart, which also broke down.

 

[isatrader]

Effective Volume

The S&P 500 etf (SPY) and Russell 2000 Small Caps etf (IWM) Effective Volume charts have broken down from their recent sideways range. The Russell 2000 Small Caps (IWM) is seeing the most notable selling this week breaking strongly below it's two month range. Whereas the Nasdaq 100 etf (QQQ) has broken out to the upside from it's one month range.

 

[isatrader]

US Industry Sectors Breadth

It was a big week in the sector breadth charts with a lot of sectors making strong moves downwards. Five sectors changed to a sell signal, to make a total of eight down sectors and only one up sector. The sector breadth visual diagram that shows all the sectors together highlights the negative change when you compare to last week with a number of sectors moving boxes, which doesn't happen that often as each box represents 10% in size.

The biggest faller this week was the weakest sector Basic Materials, but the overall strongest sectors took a big hit as well with Industrials and Financials dropping large amounts also. Only Utilities managed a small gain on the week, showing there was some rotation to defensive stocks and not complete liquidation across the board. But it was a heavy down week and so the weighting for this breadth measure has tilted to the Bear side now.

Below is the data table for the Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average in each sector which I've ordered by relative strength, with the highest to the lowest percentage in each sector. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the overall NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages, plus the 1% P&F chart and line chart of the nine sectors.

 

[isatrader]

Market Breadth Update

Attached is the NYSE long, medium and short term moving average breadth charts and the NYSE Bullish Percent Index.

The short term moving average breadth charts continue to be where the noticeable action is currently, with all four moving to Bear Confirmed status during the week. The medium to longer term charts also dropped, but didn't made any status changes.

So the weighting for the major moving average breadth charts moves firmly to the bear side in the short term, with plenty of downside space to drop from. While the medium to long term continues to be on Bear Alert.

 

[isatrader]

Volatility Breadth Charts

Attached is the updated volatility breadth charts which have moved to Bear Confirmed Status imo, across the short, medium and long term time frames.

 

[isatrader]

Advance Decline Breadth Charts

Attached is the updated Advance Decline Breadth Charts, including the cumulative AD line, momentum index, cumulative AD volume line, 10 Day AD oscillator, NYSE Volume Advancing / Volume Declining Ratio etc, which are starting to show some bearish signs with a few early breakdowns and noticeable divergences. They haven't given any major sell signals yet, but are certainly suggesting that we should be alert to a breakdown at least.

 

[isatrader]

New Highs New Lows

Attached is the New Highs / New Lows charts. The New Lows (red area on daily chart) picked up this week, to challenge the top of their range from this year, but closed the week slightly off of those levels. The New Highs saw a notable drop though, to close the week at 148 which is the lowest level since late February.

On the cumulative chart you can a see a small divergence on the 50 day MA of the New Highs - New Lows which is rolling over "notably" for the first time this year. Although the straight cumulative chart is still pushing new highs itself.

 

[isatrader]

S&P 500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns

This week saw the S&P 500 Cumulative P&F Breakouts - Breakdowns chart begin to rollover towards it's 20 day MA, which I use as the signal line. It hasn't crossed below yet, but the Oscillator chart - which is a flattened version of the cumulative chart with the 20 day MA as the zero line - shows the divergence from the January peak to the March peak which is notably lower and the figure is now only 8.5 points from the 20 day MA, and so could be reached next week if the short term negativity continues.

 

[Dentalfloss]

Jason Levitt possible bearish case
video
Leavitt Brothers: Blog

 

[isatrader]

US Industry Sectors Breadth

Last weeks very negative week saw a modest recovery this week with all the sectors closing higher for the week. However, only three managed to get back above their 10 week WMA to move back onto the buy side, and so the signals remain slightly weighted to the bearish side with five sectors on a sell and four sectors on a buy.

The biggest mover of the week was Consumer Discretionary up 3.74% to 71.77% of stocks in that sector above their 150 day MA. Overall Financials (79.47%) remains the strongest sector and Basic Materials (41.58%) the weakest.

Below is the data table for the Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average in each sector which I've ordered by relative strength, with the highest to the lowest percentage in each sector. Also attached is the visual diagram of the 9 sectors and the overall NYSE Percentage of Stocks above their 150 day Moving Averages, plus the 1% P&F chart and line chart of the nine sectors.

 

[isatrader]

Moving Average Breadth Charts

Attached is the NYSE long, medium and short term moving average breadth charts and the NYSE Bullish Percent Index.

The long and medium term charts didn't have much movement, but the short term charts all reversed back to a column of Xs, and the three quicker measures all made double top buy signals and so move back to Bull Confirmed status near the tops of their ranges again. So it's a very mixed picture currently with some short term positives, but the short term NYSE Percentage of stocks above their 50 Day MA chart failed to get back above it's own 50 day MA, which is trending lower and it's relative performance is still below it's 200 day MA. So that's the chart I'm watching the most closely at the moment, as it's still leaning towards a down move soon imo, unless it can breakout again, which would reverse the negative signs it has.

 

[isatrader]

Advance Decline Breadth Charts

Attached is the updated Advance Decline Breadth Charts, including the cumulative AD line, momentum index, cumulative AD volume line, 10 Day AD oscillator, NYSE Volume Advancing / Volume Declining Ratio etc.

Notes:

• Advance Decline Momentum Index - beginning to diverge from the price action
• Cumulative Advance Decline Line - the distance above the 200 day EMA chart shows a lower high and a loss of momentum, however, it is still notably higher than the same point last year and has not yet made a lower high.
• Advance Decline 10 Day Oscillator - is showing a divergence
• Advance Decline MACD line - has put in a lower high and has broken below the February lows
• Advance Decline Volume - the alternative measures are showing the same signs as the straight advance decline data, but the cumulative line made a new another new high this week.

 

[isatrader]

New Highs New Lows

Attached is the New Highs / New Lows charts which remain fairly strong except for a small divergence beginning to form on the 50 MA line.