S&P 500 and NYSE Breadth analysis

viktor_k67

Junior member
Messages
41
Likes
2
Below you may see the High-Low range NYSE and S&P 500 index charts.

Chart #1: High-Low Range 50% NYSE chart from February until November 2015: red line is the # of Bearish stocks which are traded closer to their 52 week lows and green line is the # of bullish stocks which are traded closer to their 52-week highs.

nysebreadthchart.png


Chart #2: High-Low Range 50% S&P 500 chart for the period from February until November of 2015.

sp500breadthchart.png


charts from http://www.marketvolume.com/quotes/highlowrangechart.asp

The number of the bearish stocks comprising the NYSE Composite index was bigger than the number of bullish stocks in May of 2015 (see the chart #1).

By comparing the NYSE and the S&P 500 charts, we may say that the bigger part of the NYSE stocks became bearish in May-June of 2015. The majority of the S&P 500 stocks was still Bullish at that time. This mean the smaller companies went into the decline in May 2015 while bigger companies (like GOOG) were still Bullish. However, the market cannot stay bullish all the time just because several of big companies are bullish when the rest of the stocks are bearish. In August of 2015, the market giants started to decline as well and the market suddenly crashed.

Today, the number of bearish stocks topped the number of bullish stocks on the S&P 500 again (see chart #2 above). While we see the majority of stocks declining, we cannot talk about the Bull market. At this point of time, the odds are higher for a correction than for the Bull market.
 
More recent breadth charts for the NYSE and S&P 500.

As pf now, we have more bearish stocks which are traded closer to their 52-week lows than bullish stocks (traded closer to their 52-week highs) and the number of stocks dropping to their 52-week lows is on the rise. See the NYSE High-Low Range Chart below:

20151209-nyse-breadth.png


On the S&P 500 the number of bearish stocks overcame the number of bullish stock on Monday (Dec 7, 2015) - see the chart below:

20151209-sp500-breadth.png

Chart source: http://www.marketvolume.com/quotes/highlowrangechart.asp

As I mentioned in the previous my post, No matter what other say about the great economy and great market, I will not believe in Bullish market while I see such big number of bearish stocks on the market.

Yes, we have big companies like AAPL, MSFT, HD, GOOG, NKE, NFLX, AMZN which still hold the main indexes (DJI, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) close to the top. Yet, I do not want to be in the market when these stocks will dive into a correction. The weighting of these stocks in the main indexes is relatively high and by taking into account that smaller companies are already in deep correction, this pay push indexes fast and strongly down.
 
Top