FX 2007 > Week 26 - 30 Mar

[Uphios]

All closed out profits taken everywhere. Could have and should have been better but just to much frustration to hang on any longer. A couple of days out for me now whilst I re-group.


Can I sue someone, I think my pay for the last week has been below the minimum wage considering the hours I have put in.

 

[Atilla]

All closed out profits taken everywhere. Could have and should have been better but just to much frustration to hang on any longer. A couple of days out for me now whilst I re-group.


Can I sue someone, I think my pay for the last week has been below the minimum wage considering the hours I have put in.

Hi guys,

Yes I agree. My performance on cable has been bad recently too. However, I have continued with Gold, SPX500 and even tried FTSE100, HMSO. To top it off I even made some on rumours on May crude oil today. Very risky but I was in and out in 30 mins for 50 pips. Highlight of my day I think.

We have all these instruments and if ones misbehaving try something a little different is my motto.

Still watching cable and guessing the moves. Will do so until my predictive powers to judge correctly grow again. I may risk a few bob or two.

Bernankes talk took the gloss off some of my gains but still up 94 pips today. No cable in any trade.

I'm still watching, listening and reading...

Good luck to you all.

 

[2be]

Hi guys,

Yes I agree. My performance on cable has been bad recently too. However, I have continued with Gold, SPX500 and even tried FTSE100, HMSO. To top it off I even made some on rumours on May crude oil today. Very risky but I was in and out in 30 mins for 50 pips. Highlight of my day I think.

We have all these instruments and if ones misbehaving try something a little different is my motto.

Still watching cable and guessing the moves. Will do so until my predictive powers to judge correctly grow again. I may risk a few bob or two.

Bernankes talk took the gloss off some of my gains but still up 94 pips today. No cable in any trade.

I'm still watching, listening and reading...

Good luck to you all.

Pleased you have had a good day, its interesting re Crude and gold. I am thinking to diversify a bit too.

 

[rav700]

I am taking the risk as I think now tommorow we will see the retracment to the 500 zone ....I am almost certain on this one...If it does not go to the 500's tommorow...I can promise you ....Thats me out of cable for the next 3 weeks...................It means it is time for me to quit for a bit..............

Happy Trading
Rav
I am short now @ 23.5 with a stop @ 57.................
My final short
Best of luck
Rav

 

[hornblower]

Tom Hoggurd ( i think that's how you spell it)

looking at a long term chart
the last trending session was July to December 2006 total of 78 days , then it shot up
He says that we are in a similar range , and time frame , and is wondering if we will get the same
as last time , up or down

edit
and its near the end of the quarter

and I think that's what the markets are waiting for

 

[29Investments]

Morning all............

My thoughts for the day FWIW;

I see that the Daily stochs and MACD are well into rolling over and so am looking for a move lower. However as we are back mid-range, coming off the bottom, and the hourly stochs are rising from a low level I think we will have 1 more look at the top end of the range first.

Therefore am long now (from 640) looking for 680 (1st Target) and 715 (2nd target) before entering a short looking for 520.

Good Luck/Good trading

 

[a_gnome]

Morning all,

Just thought that I would add my perspective to the mix. Cable has been looking rather unpleasant for some time now so I've simply not been trading it. I know we all think that we supply the edge in our trading through our amazing analytical powers but I've come to realise that for me at least the edge really comes from the market and how it is behaving. When it's behaving well then it's easy to make money whereas when it's more or less random (as it is now) then no matter how good an analyst you are it's really hard to make anything from it at all. All I need to do is to recognise the difference and to have the discipline to keep out when it's bad. Of course there may be some hidden order here but I certainly can't see it, (perhaps DC can enlighten us)!

As they say for stock trading: "A bull market makes geniuses of us all" and there should be a converse "random markets make losers of us all"

Just my 2p's worth.

 

[Atilla]

Morning all,

Just thought that I would add my perspective to the mix. Cable has been looking rather unpleasant for some time now so I've simply not been trading it. I know we all think that we supply the edge in our trading through our amazing analytical powers but I've come to realise that for me at least the edge really comes from the market and how it is behaving. When it's behaving well then it's easy to make money whereas when it's more or less random (as it is now) then no matter how good an analyst you are it's really hard to make anything from it at all. All I need to do is to recognise the difference and to have the discipline to keep out when it's bad. Of course there may be some hidden order here but I certainly can't see it, (perhaps DC can enlighten us)!

As they say for stock trading: "A bull market makes geniuses of us all" and there should be a converse "random markets make losers of us all"

Just my 2p's worth.

Just thought I have a look at our trendie friend Mr ADX for an answer...

On the Hourly and Daily charts the ADX is stuck virtually around 20-30. Hardly a trending market. The best ADX curves I could come up with were the 3 & 4 hour charts.

Always more difficult to make money on whipsaw markets.

On a personal note with my preference for MAs I really need to have trending markets.

I'm still out.

Small dabble in EurUsd this morning. +8 pips so far. Will close position at 1.3350

 

[2be]

Morning all............

My thoughts for the day FWIW;

I see that the Daily stochs and MACD are well into rolling over and so am looking for a move lower. However as we are back mid-range, coming off the bottom, and the hourly stochs are rising from a low level I think we will have 1 more look at the top end of the range first.

Therefore am long now (from 640) looking for 680 (1st Target) and 715 (2nd target) before entering a short looking for 520.

Good Luck/Good trading

Stochastic + ADX @15.7 & MACD (esp MACD histogram) on hourly are turning down, on pivots we are half the way down between R1 and the Pivot (M3). Either way the momentum is week.

 

[Offshore Trader]

These ranges are getting narrower. Surely we are going to take a loook at 9600??

 

[rav700]

I am taking the risk as I think now tommorow we will see the retracment to the 500 zone ....I am almost certain on this one...If it does not go to the 500's tommorow...I can promise you ....Thats me out of cable for the next 3 weeks...................It means it is time for me to quit for a bit..............

Happy Trading
Rav
I am short now @ 23.5 with a stop @ 57.................
My final short
Best of luck
Rav

What a perfect stop .......................Just got out of this trade from last night @ +4 pips wow............
My Best trade ever....At least I didnt loose

 

[neil]

What a perfect stop .......................Just got out of this trade from last night @ +4 pips wow............
My Best trade ever....At least I didnt loose

Well done matey :cheesy:

 

[rav700]

These ranges are getting narrower. Surely we are going to take a loook at 9600??

If these get any narrower we might do

 

[2be]

Treble bottom on cable 15min

 

[Offshore Trader]

What a rubbish market today. I can't ever remember seeing such a narrow range. HAs DC pressed the pause button before going away?

Well done to anyone who made money. I really need some decent movement tomorrow if it's going to be a decent week.

 

[2be]

I think a sizable investment in quality printers should be profitable, for the April delivery of fresh USD. Obviously they have not printed enough in March.

 

[Atilla]

What a rubbish market today. I can't ever remember seeing such a narrow range. HAs DC pressed the pause button before going away?

Well done to anyone who made money. I really need some decent movement tomorrow if it's going to be a decent week.

Dead right. 45 pip variance whole day.

Watch out for SPX & DOW moves tomorrow chaps. Just a hunch at the mo but will be looking out for a big drop tomorrow.

Did get the EurUSD spot on. Sold on limit at 1.3350 for +13pips. Best move of the day was SPX but gave it back on gold when it dropped suddenly only to bounce back up after I dumped the lot.

Really poohey market. As for oil highly speculative but a 300 pip rise today. Wow. Not in it.

Sorry about going off topic but in all honesty I have been watching cable but just no spark to set me going. My BBands are flat as a pancake. So I'm trying to keep this thread going as it is a good one with nice bunch of geezers.

On Euro it will challenge 1.3350 again and I'm expecting it to brake it. In fact I may just setup another trade with a 350 limit now as it is nicely sitting at 335. The nicely upward moving trend is more visible too.

How about for next week we create a joint thread for Euro and Cable.. or we just all flock to Euro thread?

Any takers or ideas?

 

[rav700]

Dead right. 45 pip variance whole day.

How about for next week we create a joint thread for Euro and Cable.. or we just all flock to Euro thread?

Any takers or ideas?

I do agree with you mate this week Cable has pissed me off big time................
I missed out on the gbp\jpy \nd eur\jpy move 500 pips in all...............
one thing is for sure these to are the real deal when it comes to trending.....

I cannot see why you cant just post your comments on all other currencies as it is a forex thread and not just cable.......And from my past 4 weeks of observance.....There are only a handful of regualr members here and I am sure they would nt mind comments and Technical discussion on other currencies......

Happy Trading
Rav

 

[rav700]

FX TECHNICALS: 29 March 2007

---
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: 5-Day Channel Base At $1.3285 Eyed
RES 4: $1.3448 Resistance line from 23 Jan
RES 3: $1.3411 High of current move
RES 2: $1.3374/82 76.4% of $1.3255-$1.3411 & Resistance line from 23 Mar
RES 1: $1.3330 38.2% of $1.3303 to $1.3371
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3320
SUP 1: $1.3285 Projected channel support line from 23 Mar
SUP 2: $1.3255/60 Daily low 23 Mar & high 27 Feb
SUP 3: $1.3235/40 Daily low 16 Mar, 21-day MA & 50.0% of $1.3411-$1.3075
SUP 4: $1.3200 38.2% of $1.3411 to $1.2867
COMMENTARY: Euro is drifting lower following failure yesterday at
channel top from Mar 23, and now eyeing a move to channel base at
$1.3285. The daily studies are still pointing lower from overbought
territory, with slow-stochastic firmly in sell mode. Initial resistance
is at $1.3330 - the 38.2% of $1.3303-$1.3371 move.
--
CABLE TECH: Rangebound
RES 4: $1.9780 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 3: $1.9740/43 76.4% of $1.9187 to $1.9917 & Daily high 2 Feb
RES 2: $1.9725 Daily high 22 Mar
RES 1: $1.9660 Hourly resistance line from 26 Mar
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.9645
SUP 1: $1.9595 Support line from 21 Mar
SUP 2: $1.9575 Daily low 26 Mar
SUP 3: $1.9555 50.0% of $1.9726-$1.9385 & Daily low Mar 21
SUP 4: $1.9505 100-day moving average
COMMENTARY: Rangebound for now, with 7-day support line at $1.9595 on
the downside and an hourly resistance line at $1.9660 on topside. Needs
to break out of these parameters to determine the next move.
--
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Outlook Bearish -- Initial Support At Y116.44
RES 4: Y118.65 100-day moving average & 50.0% of Y115.17 to Y122.17
RES 3: Y118.40 Kijun line of Ichimoku cloud
RES 2: Y118.00 Daily high 28 Mar
RES 1: Y117.65/75 5 & 200-day moving average
CURRENT LEVEL: Y117.40
SUP 1: Y116.44 61.8% of Y118.49 to Y115.17
SUP 2: Y116.25 Daily low 19 Mar & Support line from 5 Mar
SUP 3: Y115.75 Daily low 14 Mar & Daily Bollinger band base
SUP 4: Y115.15/20 Daily low 5 Mar
COMMENTARY: Outlook seen as bearish and break below Y116.44 -- the 61.8%
of Y118.49 to Y115.17 favours move to support line at Y116.25 and the
daily Bollinger band base at Y115.75. The daily slow-stochastic study is
on verge of a bearish cross, but as yet unconfirmed. Resistance is at
Y117.65/75, where the 5 & 200-day moving average's are converging.
--
EURO-YEN TECHS: Hourly Studies Overbought -- Resistance At Y156.80
RES 4: Y158.01 Failure high 27 Mar
RES 3: Y157.83 Trend line from 23 Feb
RES 2: Y157.55 Daily high 28 Mar
RES 1: Y156.80 5-day moving average
CURRENT PRICE: Y156.75
SUP 1: Y156.45 Hourly support line from 29 Mar
SUP 2: Y155.30/40 21 & 100-day moving average
SUP 3: Y155.20 Kijun line of Ichimoku cloud & 38.2% of Y158.01-Y150.76
SUP 4: Y154.80 Daily low 19 Mar
COMMENTARY: Impressive bounce off Y155.36 low, but the hourly studies
are now overbought and whilst the 5-day moving average caps at Y156.80
-- the risk is on a reversal lower. The daily studies remain bearish and
imply downside risks on a break below steep hourly support line at
Y156.45. Key support area noted at Y155.20/30/40.
--
EURO-STG TECHS: Failure At stg0.6800 Sets Up Another Go At stg0.6750
RES 4: stg0.6907 76.4% of stg0.6537 to stg0.7020
RES 3: stg0.6865 Daily high 27 July
RES 2: stg0.6845 Daily high 20 Mar
RES 1: stg0.6800 21-day moving average & 38.2% of stg0.6755-stg0.6867
CURRENT LEVEL: Stg0.6790
SUP 1: stg0.6775 61.8% of stg0.6755 to stg0.6803
SUP 2: stg0.6750 200-day moving average, trend line from 16 Nov
SUP 3: stg0.6715 100-day moving average
SUP 4: stg0.6700 50.0% of stg0.6867 to stg0.6537
COMMENTARY: Watching resistance at stg0.6800 and failure here will set
up another attempt at the downside. Initial support is at stg0.6775
ahead of key level at stg0.6750, which is the short-term risk.

 

[rav700]

233 should be the topout zone for GBP\JPY
158 should be the topout Zone for EUR\JPY
???? Cable???????Please dont ask me anymore..... hahah

Not only becuase they are the highs but the technical shall give way after that along with the fundamentals....
I will be definately be trading both of these when they do get 2 these levels......
I shall be posting my charts and fundamental reasons for this on the weekend...

Happy Trading
Rav