Bit late, but because the anticipated target of 540 didn't run straight through the 32, ther was a good proability of failure, which it did.... The last gasp attempt at 32 signalled the short... now lookiing for a long off the "V" bottom, through 500. Speculative, as there is no confirmation by way of ES Vol divergence.
RSI Ratio is weak on the upside, so I'll look for a firmer confirmation. Break above the 100EMA and a pullback would be useful, and a rise above 505. Otherwise sit on hands.
A whisper of Vol divergence on 1 min, but more pronounced on the 5 min ES, so 505 could be on... and ES has to break 122.25... Just no point in gambing with such small moves on the table...time is short enough as it is.
Clear cut short off yesterday's channel lines as suggested at 520. Now moved into the lower channel, with the possibility of a rolling top, but it's not as pronounced as the ones I've seen before and theclose today looks to be just breaching the resistance on the right hand side. Also, there are four clear slope changes on RSI and CCI and that would ordinarily signify the end on a decline....
Funny how the numbers work out sometimes.... Yesterday I suggested that 520 was the point to go short. today, it tested 520, dropped through and tested 520 for resistance before dropping off the edge. :cheesy: Lucky call I guess. Not too hard to call the bottom as it failed to get to 464, but ES Vol confirmation didn't show until the price got up to 85.
Eventually, we got the pop out of the expanding triangle on RSI,rewarding those with a lot of patience..... But this move failed to make my target of 540. I fully expected there not to be a test of 32 as the break looked good, but in the end, the target failed as the price bounced down off 30. A small pullback might have continued, but it was soon evident that 40 was a lost cause. Confirmed by the second failure at 32. Good Short entry, with a straight PD bottom, right on the lower 10 min channel support line for confirmation. I've already commented on my last entry, that was with some reluctance, knowing that it was going to be against the trend, hence taking extra caution to get the safest entry. I could have taken the right side of the Inv. H&S, but that would have been a pure gamble.
Not really a triangle... needed to drop to support on the 6th to around 440. But I will concede that there was a similar one on the 15th - 17th.Dec .... Yesterday formed a "W" bottom, quite common, with a target of 580. Futures have been stable overnight, currently about -1 on ES.Could be an easy play today if we go through 532.