Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET

fibo_trader

Established member
665 12
Stock indexes will rally week of June 17. Be careful with long term short trade view.



Thanks amigo, but not to worry, my STOPs protect. Money gots to thrown around during the bend in the trend. Its the cost of doing business for guys like me who are guerrilla fighters from the back of a horse - we catch the trend and ride it as soon as the money thrown at it, STICKS. Losses of this nature are office rent, hahahahaha. Its an occupational hazard.



 

fibo_trader

Established member
665 12
Get your binoculars out and when the trendline below breaks AND the 200-day also breaks, you will see heavy duty partying going on on the Russian Destroyers out at sea. Thing is, they won't know why they are celebrating, they just feel they got America where they want her, weakness from the INSIDE. Only later, much later will they find out its because America's ATM signaled entering the BEAR in earnest When the ATM dam busts, BEAR will light up and smoke his finest Seeegar. He will also look to IYR for confirmation. Then and only then will he bring out the finest wines to go with that Seeegar.


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fibo_trader

Established member
665 12
Here's my analysis.

Good work, 4x. I like your explanation, it makes good sense. Let's see how it plays out. Are you going to go Long SPY or do you have another(s) choice? Let's have it if you don't mind. Will give you an alternative view, might help, might not.
 

fibo_trader

Established member
665 12
SPY: (New Trade)


Short entry at if/when < = 288.8 .................. STOP = 291.48

Short add to at if/when <= 287.42 ................ STOP = 291.48

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signs of BEAR aborning



TREND violation in UK manufacturing = big gaping hole in the concrete akin to a massive section of Las Palmas fell into the ocean = tsunami 2000 footer aborning



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4xis2ez

Well-known member
302 39
Good work, 4x. I like your explanation, it makes good sense. Let's see how it plays out. Are you going to go Long SPY or do you have another(s) choice? Let's have it if you don't mind. Will give you an alternative view, might help, might not.
I currently trade Nadex binaries. Intraday. Traded yesterday and today for 3 profitable trades in a row. May take rest of the week off and look to trade the long side next week. I guess we have differing trade styles.
 

fibo_trader

Established member
665 12
SPY: (New Trade)


Short entry at if/when < = 288.8 .................. STOP = 291.48

Short add to at if/when <= 287.42 ................ STOP = 291.48

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SPY 1H

Note: see that light blue trendline on the bottom of the chart? That is one of the trendlines that form a possible DIAMOND pattern on the weekly timeframe. I might need to study up on Diamonds but I don't believe the market really cares if the pattern is precise or not, approx. might be all it takes.



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fibo_trader

Established member
665 12
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Those who fail to master History get slaughtered over and over again and still never learn. Next lifetime they repeat the same. :):)




History like the monthly chart gets its power from the hip, deeep power. We know the power of the 200-day, what about the power of the 200-week and 200-month? Yeah, dig it
 

fibo_trader

Established member
665 12
BEAR MARKETS Riding the horse pizzazz:

That's what the thread is about. Trading is great but riding the Trend is infinitely greater. That's what I'm attempting to do here. Shots to the stomach? Yeah, dig it, you've seen some already by my sloppy entry into SPY short at ET in the opening post

So anyway, moving on.

Why take the time to study and dig deeeeeeeep into History for the emotions and the pain and the torture and turmoil and suffering within a BAR MARKET? Because in a Bull market every mother's son is a genius. But in a BEAR - the real warriors show up and ride to the finish line - intact. And dig this - they are then the first entrants into the new Bull. This is a game that has no 2nd place contender. Its the game of champions.

Looking at the GREAT DEPRESSION in hindsight as a scholar one is gripped by the vast magnitude of the suffering. One also sees the crazy greed and throwing all caution to the wind on the ascent to the TOP before the crash began. Investors were crazy. Then they died.

SAme story, different BEAR every few decades. Will go on forever. Why? Because Boom/Bust is implanted in all of us.
 

fibo_trader

Established member
665 12
In the 3rd of Wave 3 on the Weekly chart it must have been terrifying for adults to hear the distant cries of the kids screaming in agony, "why can't you give my dad a job?" Terrible! And not being able to do anything about it.






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fibo_trader

Established member
665 12
The trading God's first lesson to Fibo: Live Fibo live by not dying too soon - every day you stretch your life during the early trading period, you are giving yourself a better shot to make it eventually.

Trading God's 2nd lesson: Think big Fibo. The TREND is for financial warriors. There is NO Famine in the Financial markets.
 

fibo_trader

Established member
665 12
To it, then ...................

1926 - 1929 .............. Blocking out all the noise and cacophony of the taxi drivers, the waiters, the shoeshine boys jumping and dancing in the streets and investors and traders claiming the JOY will go on forever - block it all out and watch the footprint of the collective STUPID ONES on the price chart on M/W/D. Skip real time altogether, which is like a colonoscopy. You KNOW this is a 5th wave, a terminal wave. Why? Because just before it, there was a massively long sideways consolidation with triangle and whatnot, complicated stuff but all of it is a 4th wave. So you go back to the 1st wave in the sequence and project it up from the wave 4 low and boom you have your target for wave 5. 1st target = "5" = "1" ....... most common. If its exceeded, only then will you look for 161.8%, 261.8%, 423.6%.

A trendline thru' the 4th of Wave 5 will give you the line in the sand. When that breaks you cash out and retreat to a castle to enjoy.
Then a few days/weeks later after the first dive, there will be a rally (wave 2) which will retrace 61.8%. Nail that top by throwing cash at it a few or many times with stops. When it sticks, you're on for the long ride Short.. Ride on for 1-3 yrs.

Repeat in 1932 where YOU are the only warrior even bothering to look at the market. All the others are dead or long gone, disgusted, thinking it will never end. BEAR killed 'em all. You surely will know what loneliness is at this point. And everywhere you go with your friends, YOU pay the bill for everythng. that's just the way it is.

Every bull/bear, Same crap, same clowns, every damn time, never changes. MBA, Phd, MTech. Comp. Science, no matter, all get buggered.
 

fibo_trader

Established member
665 12
For almost all players I do NOT recommend watching CNBC, CNN, BBC, Aljazeera etc., during a CRASH. turn it all off and just go strictly Price chart. I'm different. I will watch the stuff to deepen my understanding of the tools at BEAR's disposal. I can stomach it.


Behold the Great Depression curve from the 1900s to 1920's wave 4 consolidation, then the meteoric as usual Wave 5.




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fibo_trader

Established member
665 12
So if I was living at the time of the Great Depression and I knew some of this stuff, sitting in a coffee shop with others or even on the street, they would ask, "Fibo where is this going, will it ever end?" I would answer but they would not believe me anyway.

How easy is it to answer that question? Piece of cake. You see, BEAR has a weakness. He must go to the zone of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree or to the absolute bottom where the Mania first began. Veryoften this is coincident.

Therefore Fibo already know-ed where the buggering would end.