Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET

fibo_trader

Experienced member
1,508 27
Expecting a major BEAR market ............................


SPY short entry 279.2 today, March 12, 2019

Multiple short entries thereafter

2,000 more shares added short last week 293.42

All positions still open

Big losses ongoing.

Haven't changed a thing.
 

Inquisitor

Member
99 37
Attempting to predict the top or bottom of any market has continuously been proven to result in account wipeout. Even if you were fortunate enough to be correct on this occasion, then in my view it would result in confirmation bias which will also ultimately result in account wipeout.
 

fibo_trader

Experienced member
1,508 27
So I've been told. But I can'thelp it, Inquisitor, I'm drawn to it, its in my blood. There's nothing I enjoy more than fuguiring out a top/bottom. However, your point/advice is well received and respected & appreciated.
 
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fibo_trader

Experienced member
1,508 27
Even if wrong on epic BEAR, there has to at least be a correction. If it looks weak I will bail out at 50% or 60% retr.
 

fibo_trader

Experienced member
1,508 27
Don't want to break any rules - is it allowed to post the link to my/the original Elitetrader.com threads?
 

fibo_trader

Experienced member
1,508 27
Here are my other trades as of April 29th posted at ET.

Will post the thread link as soon as I know its not breaking any rule. Lots of drama at ET, never a dull day, attacks are a way of life. The entire site was Sooo. unabashedly bullish, it was waaaayy beyond Euphoria.

I pointed this out, called it classic Herd behavior at major turns, but they were having none of it. I estimated that the Daily Sentiment Index for ET was 99% bulls. Statements that usually warn of a Top were commonplace, like Dow will rise forever, this market will never turn, FED will keep it going, NEW ERA, etc., etc.,

What got me banned in addition to engaging in fights & wall street language was my statement, "if it turns out I am correct in my call, what does that say about the so-called experts aka Elite Traders?

Public enemy #1. 😀😎



EEM short 43.97 stop 44.86

AXP short 116.68

QQQ short 191.2

SPY Short 294.38
 

fibo_trader

Experienced member
1,508 27
Nobody is likely interested in how I got myself into such deep losses but hopefully I'll learn something from my mistiming folly/stupidity

My assessment all along was that BEAR began Jan 26, 2018. That's 2018. Despite the marginal higher high in Octber 2018. So, when the crash hit into the Christmas 2018 lows with such power that BEAR markets were being declared left & right, I not only knew that it was THE epic BEAR since the 1700s, at least one degree of trend greater than Great Depression of 1929, but that the subsequent rally was a Bear Rally for SURE because no BEAR could be such a wimp as to maim and then revert to BULL so rapidly.

This is what got me into deep trouble that caused mistiming. And it gets worse. I sure as heck saw the clear perfect hit at Fib 161.8% on Christmas lows. That should have alerted me to be EXTRA cautious about future Short re-entries. Rest is history. Mistiming. Terrible, terrible. And the worst part is I consider myself to be a market timer. A solid kick in the butt is what I got.

😀
 

fibo_trader

Experienced member
1,508 27
My recent Crude Oil trade & Call at ET (will post thread link when given permission) April 29



Also shorted Crude Oil today. .... Short 63.52 stop 66.17 & closed Longs Friday.




 

fibo_trader

Experienced member
1,508 27
Crude Oil from ET continued ................................. under nick jazzsmn also banned shortly thereafter after Magnum cott on it was the fellow who called him the cop from Jerkwater, USA. :)

On page 15 of poster "bone" crude oil thread in commodity futures .................

April 26th
close remaining 20% Long 62.82 uptrend from December broken today, prev. Long (80%) closed 59.72
Out 100% now waiting to go short

next post on same page
(Island reversal today?)
 

fibo_trader

Experienced member
1,508 27
EurUsd trade:

April 30, 2019
EurUsd 1.1179 short no stop for now, 200-day is my guide. This is in addition to short (6 in total over weeks). Soft target level is 1.1046. If level breaks with no rally (highly doubtful) I want to stay in short as long as below the 200-day to long-range target below December 2016 low at 1.0121

weekly channel from 7/7/08 top lower channel line at 0.95. However there are larger bearish forces at play. Euro is drawn by magnet to 0.8227, the Oct 2000 low
 

fibo_trader

Experienced member
1,508 27
EliteTrader posters in general totally trash and trashed TA consistently, calling everything to do with trendlines, drawing tools, Fibonacci total hogwash. hahaha, enjoyable stuff but dig this ............

since I don't have permission to post the link for the thread yet, just go there yourselves and type in poster name jazzsmn and go to page 5 and see how my step by step trendline drawing in advance of the breakout called the breakout that we are seeing for the last few days. I told the clowns that nobody can beat a kid with a pencil and ruler - they didn't believe me. All it took was TA 101, trendline on Vix with trendline on RSI(21) and Macd. TL on Macd called the breakout well in advance. Check it out for yourselves.
Love it when they say TA is hocus pocus. Love it so much it makes my day.

Caution: Not a single elitetrader has ever understood the golden ratio or the fibonacci ratio. Not a single one. Shocking? Yes.


They yawned when on April 30 in the same thread I said this .......................

"Creme de la creme from Vix is the projectile fired from extrapolating 2/6/18 top + 8/9/18 low + 12/24/18 top to give a precise Egypt pyramid fibo projection of 61.8% on April 17. The golden ratio once again gave fibo-trader the high odds likelihood of reversal. Of course niemand was or is awake to notice these things.

special note for today (May 7, 2019): see Macd histogram bar size, then look at the sheer vertical ascent of RSI(21) as it crosses the 60 mark.

Listened to this while Vix was breaking out ............................ and blasting thru' the 200-day ema. Life or Death, I'm up for either one in this play but thoroughly enjoying even Death. :)

 

fibo_trader

Experienced member
1,508 27
Boeing: the lies they told were astonishing. Their reign is over. Bull market icons get slaughtered in a BEAR. Their deceit will cripple them more.

Go to thread title same as here under my name, fibo_trader, go to page 46 and there you will see my recent call on Boeing made on March 27, 2019 ...........................

"when a juicy big red bar punches a big hole in the 200-day ema it will be the start of Boeing's waterfall decline"

Happening today, May 7, 2019. But the 200-day has elasticity, no? It sure does. So at least a bounce? One would think so. But only if this is not a 3rd wave decline.

Hide & watch. This prince is heavily weighted in the Dow.
 

fibo_trader

Experienced member
1,508 27
Boeing:

On Page 7, ET poster named Overnight, a long standing ET member said this to me, "then buy Boeing now because a couple crashed planes ain't going to kill the company!! Buy Boeing Now! NOW! NOW!.


See my reply on same page, a long one but summarized here into concept form ......................

Warren Buffet/Bernard Baruch/Plato/Cicero/Xenu said or hinted ............ when there is blood in the street, buy - when there is euphoria sell.

Therefore as per the theorem, SELLLLLLL. But when to sell? Euphoria can get more euphoric as in parabolic, hahaha.

Answer: Fibonacci 161.8% or 261.8% or 423.6%.

You then do NOT look to get back in. The odds strongly favor a violent rape of the instrument by the implant that resides in BEAR.

Go monthly put Fibo grid on 1987 low at 7.47 and 61.8% on 6/1/07 top. No reaction at 161.8% but kiboom at 261.8%. One would be waiting pay-shuntly for this this as it is the only viable option remaining after 161.8% was surpassed. Then note the juicy red bars. Hahahahaha.

Heresy at ET. I got shot for stuff like this, hated intensely. May be here too, I'll get slaughtered, hahahaha. One fellow from Orthello (Australia) named TheMickey who actually liked me, was so shocked by this nonsense that he mocked me with Messiah. :);):cool:


He ain't laffing no more. :)
 

fibo_trader

Experienced member
1,508 27
I view international markets to get a better idea of BEAR as this is to be a worldwide phenomenon. Chino has been in a BEAR for ages. Ghost towns, streets and building are in a bullrun. When the 200-month ema breaks, Chino will not have to worry about Donald no more as they will be in a freefall.

Europe Dow rally from December lows is over? See daily chart trendline bust and large red bar now on 200-day.

London FTSE big red bar after trendline break now approaching 200-day. RSI is showing a support break so watch out.

For my BEAR CALL to work, allmajors gots to crash, there will be no exceptions, all US, UK, DAX, FTSE, CAC40 the works. all gotta charge south. If they don't then call is wrong.

Short of an outright BEAR I'm taking this one step at a time by looking at a correction to 50% retracement FIRST. Then we see.
 

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