Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET

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The fascination with India has good reason besides those mentioned already ................

for TA most invaluable lesson learned was totally unrelated and told to me in Rajasthan during travel when I ran into a village monk, a sadhu who invited me to tea. We sat on the floor and all I did was listen and listen and listen. I was transfixed. He said, "you will need this fortification for later in life when the tsunamis come knocking at your door - when facing an insurmountable problem that dwarfs you, your best resort is to dig down to absolute basic-basic, something you are so sure of that you would bet your life on it - then from there you derive forward and soon you will have the problem licked"

Only an Indian could come up with this Math problem that would send a fellow like me diving deep down to basic-basic to meet my maker, my core engine, then start from there and derive forward ......................

starting from first principles and without the use of computers, calculators, etc., prove that

cot 7.5 degrees = root 2 + root 3 + root 4 + root 6


Such is the power of visiting basic-basic. For us fellas trading, what might be basic-basic? TA 101 minus 1000 = ground zero = the straight line

Now apply to the entire rally of Dow Jones or SPY from Christmas low. Only one line reqd. Line broke, I called the warning top of rally on SPY. This is at least a WAVE top call, not necessarily a market top. But look at the points the trader would pocket. I should have followed my own advice and not started shorting till then. Shoulda, woulda, coulda, it stinks, more lessons to learn on application of basic-basic for me. A certified dummy I am. :)


 
The Mighty Dow Jones send fibo_trader a letter with no text but just one image - a hammer candlestick for today's action. Then he said, "review the definition esp. the part which says where exactly the bulls started to reject the bears, then tell me what that level is"



"The long lower shadow of the Hammer implies that the market tested to find where support and demand was located. When the market found the area of support, the lows of the day, bulls began to push prices higher, near the opening price. Thus, the bearish advance downward was rejected by the bulls"

The level in question above in the definition happens to be a perfect 23.6% Fibonacci.

Just another day Math bellows thru' a megaphone to Fibo, "son, its always the basics and the basics only"


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For Math afficionados here's some nice juice, the kind of stuff that Fibo is really good at, not by luck but by sheer passion as its sheer poetry to me. Possibly one reason BEAR don't want to kill me as God knows by now I should be dead and buried, so careless I am. I could swear he once whispered, "you and only you may go in peace" :):)

Ready chaps?

Dow Jones daily chart:

During the heavy duty crash into the Christmas lows, the Media pundits were going on and on about the crash would never end, nobody know-ed where this thing would end. But Fibo had an idea, an inkling, but with all the cacophony around him he was getting distracted by the pervasive FEAR. Blocked it all out and cott the fast train down to basic-basic and entered the core being ....... hahahahahaha, there it was ................... there was a possible answer - just that, a possible answer. Can one ever be sure? NO. But it is a start.

Take your Fibo projection grid and place it on Oct 3 top, Oct 29 low, Nov 8 high. That is 3 points reqd. for the grid. Draw grid. Then dig the perfect hit at 161.8% on Christmas.

ET doing stuff like this? Heck no, they lafffffed at me, called me names, stupid and whatnot. :)


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Now dig this:

Same Projection tool ........ 4/2/18 low, Oct 3 top, Dec 26 low ........................ draw grid. Boom. Where did the Dow Jones rally end? At exactly on the button 138.2%. (Remember that 38.2% is 61.8%'s sister, both are golden girls)


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Splicing the magnificent United Kingdom history of stock prices to that of the Dow Jones gives us history from the 1700s. I have yet to examine the data diligently from the 1700s mostly due to the fact I'm not sure how clean it is, but its good enough to give an idea about the waves. However from 1800 to current it is just staggering how Math perfect the Might Dow Jones truly is. I mean perfect on the button hits at 161.8%, 261.8% and 423.6%. Routine, routine hits. Shocking.

So if I'm right in my epic BEAR call, I expect the BEAR to end at 109% or 114.6% of the wave from 2009 low to 2019 high. This is using the Fibo Extension grid, not Projection grid. This matches nicely with the larger retracement grid from the Great Depression low in 1932 of 88.3%). Projection grid gives hit at 2009 low vicinity
 
R-factor amigos, seeing a lot of me for sure, try not to be upset, there is a reason for my madness, I had to s-plain it at ET too.

I was asked why go thru' all the trouble of making an account just to start the "bear market thread?"

Here's my answer, so pls bear with me, & apologies if its all too much. :):)


I said to him, "you don't get it?" This expected BEAR market is the greatest of ALL time even eclipsing that of 1700s, 1929, 1966-73 & ............ 2007-2009 crash. This monster BEAR is an EMPIRE BUSTER that will kick out the UK/USA from the driver seat and usher in the replacement Empire. I want to be a part of this turn in calling it, trading it and posting my results for all to see. If wrong I'll be out big bucks. Worth it big time to me. I got no problem being poor and homeless. I'll just sleep at Waimanalo. :)

Humiliation if wrong? Yeah but so what. Best part is there are no excuses. This is the best I can do & and I do nothing but the best I can, no partials, its an all out best I can do. So there will be no excuses if failure for which the odds are always high when one is dealing with such stuff.

If/when market breaks me into pieces and renders me homeless, I have a plan - I will go to my resting place and crash on the beach and live right there in Waimanalo see below in video :):):)


 
The UK/USA Empire notes:

Empires come and go. That's just the way it is. This one is so out of control now its scary to watch. Wars going on all over the place and now you've got distinct signs that the Ruskies, Chinese and Iran are on one side. If a war between the US and China were to break out NOW, a non-nuclear war if that is even possible, China would win.

Is there technical info that we as traders/Investors are privy to that could help in this argument? Perhaps but nobody will believe me because in Trader Land its all about 1 minute to 5 minute charts. The forest is routinely missed for the trees. No matter.

Vix has the answer - data from 1987 only. Wish there was more. Massive rounding bottoms on Monthly. Trend line from 1987 top, when broken will signal the rapid Empire decay. Aircraft carriers are moving into certain regions while all this is going on.

Whe/if Vix > 50 you will know we're on.

The 2008 crash was handled by a BEAR cub. This time around its his pappy, a full grown male in his prime, an alpha Male. His ally? Some would say, Donald.

Fasten seatbelts.



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Lesson #1: page 1678 starts the Jan 26, 2018 US market top. Killed all these dudes. Massive losses and they were singing LONG without a care in the world. Thread is called Zero Risk. :)

For those interested in getting a Masters Degree or Phd in the subject HERD PSYCHOLOGY there is no better thread in the Universe than the ET thread above. However it is very bad for ET. At every single intermediate or major turn starting from 2007, traders got destroyed when the turns came. I pointed this out to members and to owner, Baron & became public enemy #1. The entire site runs parallel to this thread.

They get so bullish they never see the turn coming. And at Bear bottoms they think the carnage will go on forever. Shocking! See for yourselves if you have time. Well worth it. Great education in TREND MECHANICS & PSYCHOLOGY. Take a few weeks and study it. Thread is the longest in the Universe.

In the Trading forum today there is dead silence among the usual bullish screamers, they are getting slaughtered. Baron will hide all this, but I will point it out to him what a farce is going on.

One would think that Elite traders know their stuff on trends & bend in the trend. The evidence is clear - they do NOT.

Notice how Rickshaw Man has disappeared this week? He got raped this week. He will be back. If the Bear continues he will be gone for good. Sad. I like this guy.
 
Here's how I tried to help. Firstly by just pointing out psychology basics. No luck. They told me to take a hike. And I didn't have much of a leg to stand on as my short positions were red.

So I found the jackpot when by sheer accident I mentioned Warren Buffet. They jumped to attention. Total silence. They think and/or know & consider Warren a GOD.

So I told them that Warren said, "when there is blood in the street, BUY. ..... and when there is euphoria and complacency galore, SELL.

There was dead silence at ET for 3 whole days as they stopped attacking me to give this new stuff some thought. I mean, their God was in essence telling them they were operating totally backwards.

You know what? On the 4th day, they just dropped Warren in the trash and resumed the assault on me. Hahahahah. What a picnic.

Talk about getting a solid education in the stubbornness of a Herd. I had no idea it went soooooooooooooooooooooooo. deep.

I know now.

This is why I love ET. Learned a ton in Herd Psyche there. 😎😀
 
fibo, it seems to me like you've had a bad experience at Elite Trader
however why not educate us on your knowledge and experience, as im pretty sure anyone from Elite isn't listening anymore
and whilst you are bitching and moaning, what then are you most likely to do after you've left here?

you had a bad experience, noone listened to you..get over it. but you're not going to win many friends here thats for sure with that attitude
its your money, if you're right well done you, if you're wrong, there are many im sure who will commiserate with you
 
I see global markets to show signs of improvement thought of BEAR as this is to be an overall marvel. Chino has been in a BEAR for a long time. Apparition towns, avenues and building are in a bullrun. At the point when the 200-month ema breaks, Chino won't need to stress over Donald no more as they will be in a freefall.

Europe Dow rally from December lows is finished? See every day outline trendline bust and huge red bar now on 200-day.

London FTSE enormous red bar after trendline break currently moving toward 200-day. RSI is demonstrating a help break so keep an eye out.

For my BEAR CALL to work, allmajors gots to crash, there will be no special cases, all US, UK, DAX, FTSE, CAC40 the works. all gotta charge south. On the off chance that they don't, at that point call isn't right.

Shy of an out and out BEAR I'm approaching this slowly and carefully by taking a gander at a rectification to half retracement FIRST. At that point we see.
 
fibo, it seems to me like you've had a bad experience at Elite Trader
however why not educate us on your knowledge and experience, as im pretty sure anyone from Elite isn't listening anymore
and whilst you are bitching and moaning, what then are you most likely to do after you've left here?

you had a bad experience, noone listened to you..get over it. but you're not going to win many friends here thats for sure with that attitude
its your money, if you're right well done you, if you're wrong, there are many im sure who will commiserate with you


Are you kidding? Bad experience at ET? Heck no, it was all good except for what I outlined as one factor, the unfair, impeding ET cop.

>>>>> and whilst you are bitching and moaning, what then are you most likely to do after you've left here? <<<<

Thread here is pretty much done. I set aside 5 days to post the BEAR market CALL. Its that simple. ET might delete the thread if BEAR continues, but this one here should stand as I have no enemies here. :):)
 
I'm done, amigos. Thread call stands as-is, no changes.

Moderator, please close thread. Thank you

Good luck to all traders here. :)

fibo_trader
 
Hahaha, thread's still open, OK so will update re: funeral arrangements ....... still alive but DEATH stalks. SPY went green briefly, now red again. Thread trades mostly green except AXP. Comments on Boeing, XLF etc., look good so far.

Thread mission reiterated:

Got on the horse March 12, 2019 in the bend in the bull trend and placed bet on the big SPX wave southbound to 1,800, then to 1,550, then to most realistic destination= previous 4th @ Devil's island = 666. Then will close all Shorts circa year 2022 and go LONG for years. Just as in Great Depression 1929 & crash of 2007-2009, a mere 2 or at most 3 log trend lines on weekly will call the entire BEAR - yeah its that simple. Ruler + pencil = only tools reqd. No FA, no TA, no gurus, no News, no FED, no Trump, just a simple counting ability from 1 to 5 on weekly. Definitely NO indicators except for just one I allow as a snack, MACD.

If wrong & instead SPX takes out May 1, 2019 top & I decide to close out my shorts and take the losses, then it really is lafffter is the best medicine.

What am I watching now, May 20, 2019? Drop from May 1, 2019, if a wave 1 down, then wave 3 down is to start soon. If right, it will be Paradise for me. If wrong, dyin ain't much of a livin.


 
Forum Law:

If something is eeeeezy, the high post count gurus who rent apartments in Forums will kill it fast. In real Life, Air & Water are killed quick. Death & Disease comes fast. All forums should institute a DISLIKE button. Those are the cats I will give attention to.

Simplicity of the trendline in the SPX like Air & Water, God's free gifts to us POOR fellows like myself who came from nothing, were going nowhere fast, then the monk bought lunch. Things were never the same again. Death? Who cares? The big swing is worth it. Want more fun? Then put God's railways stations on the plot. The HERD gots to stop there for a drink every damn time, every damn year, been doing it for centuries since antediluvian times.

The monk said, "put the line under a solid bum" = Wave of Minor, Intermediate or Primary degree - and extend it to infinity. Then watch the fun.











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The monk bought lunch. Yeah, he bought a little. God said, "forum gurus will screw up even the most magnificent of my free gifts to the POOR" Amen!

That's why Joe Biden's 8-yr old daughter's Father's Day prayer went like this ......... "Dear God, this year for Father's day, please send clothes for all the poor ladies in daddy's computer"

The monk said, "Say what? Euro is complicated? Heck, even the rally into 2018 was halted by a mere line drawn under a big bum"

View attachment 262959


 
Boeing: the lies they told were astonishing. Their reign is over. Bull market icons get slaughtered in a BEAR. Their deceit will cripple them more.

Go to thread title same as here under my name, fibo_trader, go to page 46 and there you will see my recent call on Boeing made on March 27, 2019 ...........................

"when a juicy big red bar punches a big hole in the 200-day ema it will be the start of Boeing's waterfall decline"

Happening today, May 7, 2019. But the 200-day has elasticity, no? It sure does. So at least a bounce? One would think so. But only if this is not a 3rd wave decline.

Hide & watch. This prince is heavily weighted in the Dow.



Done! :)



Boeing honors Fibo's trendline with aplomb - like he should. And look, he do-ed it again NOW. And behold, HE reversed at Fibo's 261.8% on the button.




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EurUsd trade:

April 30, 2019
EurUsd 1.1179 short no stop for now, 200-day is my guide. This is in addition to short (6 in total over weeks). Soft target level is 1.1046. If level breaks with no rally (highly doubtful) I want to stay in short as long as below the 200-day to long-range target below December 2016 low at 1.0121

weekly channel from 7/7/08 top lower channel line at 0.95. However there are larger bearish forces at play. Euro is drawn by magnet to 0.8227, the Oct 2000 low





The bread & butter trade, specifically bolillo/mantequilla/mjall trade, so good because the trends in currrrrncies are sooooooo long duration as to purrrrrr like so in video. Months and months and god knows how long one just stays in and forgets about it. And the euro? Don't even ask. EurUsd = Fibo's first love, always was, always will be, never loses never disappoints. Soooooooo big an instrument as to make the NY stock exchange look like an ant. Why important? Becuase the trendlines and waves are immaculate, so poy-fect as to be impeccable

YAWN YAWN YAWN sTay short till trenldine breaks topside. Notice how SHE rose to meet and validate the trendline? The euro does this type of stuff every damn day, hahahahaha. He ain't no ordinary chap this euro, he be after all the Deutsche Mark, a once stellar cat. Honors Fibonacci like sheer poetry with perfect hits at 61.8% & cousins.


OBSCENE is the only description for profits from this stellar cat.


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