Why S&P 500 will be much higher in 5 years?

[Mr. Crabs]

I think unemployment will be a major issue. New net technology will put a huge amount of teachers out of work for instance. The gap between rich and poor is getting wider all the time. Especially with Tories like Cameron. Even so under Blair's socialists.

This will make way for the service sector to expand.

I don't see why increased efficiency would increase the unemployment rate when there are countless ways people can make themselves useful and busy for profit.

 

[Pat494]

The current US policy of printing more money is only a temporary patch on the problem. Sooner or later countries will be forced to live within their means for a change. But then is Spain a fore-runner of things to come ? There is over 50% youth unemployment.

The stock market is rushing up and up, mainly fuelled by speculation and easy money on low interest rates - just as it was in 1928/9. So the S&P 500 may be at ridiculous heights in 5 years or a at a figure below 1000 if the bubble bursts.

Surely the end of current democracies and the EU. The dawn of the 4th Reich and single party Govts I wouldn't be surprised.

Personally I hope the various freedoms survive but the well meaning but impractical plonkers are dropping the baton imho

 

[Duarte]

I am going to look to the period between 1967 and 1984, as well as, for the period between 2000 and 2013.
As I have written before now, my guess about what is happening is that the S&P 500 since 2000 is following the path between 1968 and 1984.
At this time the key is to understand if the breakout above the long-term resistance line was or not decisive.
When the breakout is decisive, the resistance level then becomes a support level, but I don´t know yet whether or not this will happen. My big question is this: Will red support line hold?

 

[KatieLBRfan]

Re: The S & P 500 going much higher in 5 years.

On a fundamental level, earnings for S & P companies are still increasing, although they are not growing at a fast rate. The P/E for S & P companies is around 15 or 16, which is a reasonable level. Low interest rates make the present value of future cash flows worth more, so if interest rates stay low, stocks should go for a higher price. On a fundamental basis, I think stocks can go higher.

 

[Duarte]

The long term market timer portfolios went down its first month since the start.
Following 7 consecutive months of rises, the S&P 500 fell in June.


Note:
On 10 Jun 10 there was a 2 –for- 1 Stock Split for the ProShares UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO).


The following are the long-term market timer portfolios:

 

[Duarte]

The following are the long-term market timer portfolios:

 

[Pat494]

The S&P 500 should be a general reflexion of the USA's financial health but is it ?
City bankruptcies like Detroit could become ever more commonplace as money that could have been used to invest there was moved on to other places. The poor suburbs look more like a battlefield.
Much of the money has been invested in stocks and shares driving up the indices.

The national debt is so big the politicians hardly mention it but when interest rates rise it will be even harder to pay off. There is no serious attempt to pay it even ! The coming crash could make the 1929 Great Depression look small by comparison.

 

[Atilla]

The S&P 500 should be a general reflexion of the USA's financial health but is it ?
City bankruptcies like Detroit could become ever more commonplace as money that could have been used to invest there was moved on to other places. The poor suburbs look more like a battlefield.
Much of the money has been invested in stocks and shares driving up the indices.

The national debt is so big the politicians hardly mention it but when interest rates rise it will be even harder to pay off. There is no serious attempt to pay it even ! The coming crash could make the 1929 Great Depression look small by comparison.

Well the US GDP defecit is half that of Europe's debt :idea:

They can all be paid back by 'simply' raising taxes :idea:

Much ado about little imo.

Much easier to print more money and let everyone get on with it.

 

[Duarte]

The following are the long-term market timer portfolios:

 

[Duarte]

The following are the portfolios monthly charts:

 

[Duarte]

The portfolios reached yesterday a new annual maximum monthly.
Specifically, the long term market timer high risk portfolio reached 53,59% yesterday, a new annual maximum monthly.
It has remarkable how quickly the market goes up. The S&P 500 has fallen just one month since the beginning of the year.

 

[SlowlyButSurely]

I have been monitoring this for the last few months now, with the Fed announcing they will be continuing stimulus despite signs of improvement in the US economy I think the easy money will see this continually set new record highs along with the DOW.

 

[Duarte]

I will put stop loss orders in all open positions.
An increased number of technical indicators that I use for short term trading are changing to sell signal and I have more doubts than usual about the future direction of the market in short term.

 

[Duarte]

I will close the position of UPRO.
(Quantity of 105)

 

[Duarte]

Today I close these portfolios.

 

[Duarte]

The following is the money from dividends list:

 

[Duarte]

The following is the closed trades list:

 

[Duarte]

The following are the long-term market timer portfolios:

 

[Duarte]

The following are the portfolios monthly charts:

 

[Duarte]

The goal was to share long term trading ideas in the forum and make a good result in the portfolio. I think that the goal has been reached. This result was mostly achieved by the analysis of S&P 500 made in January 2013.