UK UK General Election 2015 & GBPUSD - forecasts/predictions?

Pat494

Legendary member
Three weeks before polling day, the best value bets available on various different parties winning the most seats were (according to oddschecker.com) as follows:

Conservatives: 8/15

Labour: 7/4

Anyone else: 1,000/1

The best value bets available on who would be prime minister after the general election as follows:

David Cameron: evens

Ed Miliband: evens

Neither Miliband nor Cameron: 33/1

Boris Johnson: 66/1

David Miliband: 100/1

George Osborne: 100/1

Nick Clegg: 1,000/1

Tony Blair: 1,000/1

Best value bets on which party might win an overall majority:

Conservative: 7/1

Labour: 40/1

Ukip: 500/1

Lib Dem: 1,000/1

No overall majority: 1/8

Best value bets on various coalition options:

Conservative/Lib Dem: 7/1

Labour/Lib Dem: 8/1

Labour/SNP: 16/1

Conservative/Lib Dem/DUP: 33/1

Conservative/Labour: 40/1

Conservative/Ukip/DUP: 50/1

Labour/Green: 66/1

Conservative/DUP: 100/1

Labour/DUP: 100/1
 

tomorton

Legendary member
See what you mean. But glancing at the chart - it seems to be of the same opinion and done the drop already ?


Coud be Pat, price has only been ranging recently. Then again, overall structure is bearish and I have to not second-guess my own system.
 

TechQuant

Well-known member
You’re not going to see anything in spot cable. Currency derivative spreads are widening which indicates expectations of increasing volatility – no surprise there. But with 3yr gilts yielding just 0.8% and 30yr only 2.3% plus premium of insurance across these being rock steady, there’s clearly no indication of any expectation of longer term impact on sterling beyond the general election.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
Well well well. Red light flashed up on my target spreadsheet on tonight's Close so no short for me on GBP/USD. Lucky escape?
 

alexaherself

Established member
Lucky escape?

Don't know: I don't have a system with lights, bells or whistles. :eek:

I got very lucky here, I think: in and out with my 50 pips in under 2 hours ...
 

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csc2009

Established member
If Labour or Liberals dominate, cable likely to fall as they'll overspend and wreck finances.

If Tory it will strengthen as they are doing a good job.

The other parties not significant imo. Neither has anything positive to contribute but fodder for the masses.


If Greens, UKIP or SNP have any major say then we are all well and trully skewered!
Uncertainty will prevail and currency will tank.


I'm switching from greens to Tory :smart:

''Uncertainty will prevail and currency will tank.'' this I agree.
 

Pat494

Legendary member
Well what a result ! Could have been worse though. I have little sympathy for Labour, they deserved to lose on the old clapped out policies of socialism. Frankly the Mansion Tax showed them up as a clueless clots with an agenda of envy.

Oh well, the lesser evil of more Cameron policies I suppose. As for Scotland, determined to follow their own path. The crunch may come if they want a 2 part referendum on EU. The Sturgeon wants in but most of England have had enough of subsidising failing economies. France's economy is pretty poor apparently, which really only leaves Germany. Will they carry the rest ? and for how long ?
 

alexaherself

Established member
they deserved to lose on the old clapped out policies of socialism.

Exactly so.

As Blair and others were saying before and during the campaign, and as Mandelson, Umunna and Miliband's brother have been saying since the election.

Frankly the Mansion Tax showed them up as a clueless clots with an agenda of envy.

Yes - I think they came across that way even to large numbers of people whose houses are worth less than the taxable amount, partly through fear that it would turn out to be the thin end of the wedge, etc. etc. (and partly just because the people who formulated that policy do have an agenda of envy, of course).
 

f2calv

Experienced member
Frankly the Mansion Tax showed them up as a clueless clots with an agenda of envy.
I especially like how Ed Miliband offloaded his share of their multi-million Primrose Hill family home to his brother David so that it wouldn't interfere with this particular policy.
 

Jell02

Junior member
I hope you realize that Cameron promised he will have a referendum on exiting the EU if he wins. This will be the trade of life. Any details on the referendum date?
 

Pat494

Legendary member
David Cameron is drawing up plans to bring forward an in/out referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union by a year to 2016 in order to avoid a politically dangerous clash with the French and German elections in 2017.



The mood now is definitely to accelerate the process and give us the option of holding the referendum in 2016

Government source

As the prime minister declared that he had a mandate from the electorate to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s membership, government sources said Downing Street was keen to move quickly on the timing of the referendum.

“The mood now is definitely to accelerate the process and give us the option of holding the referendum in 2016,” one source said. “We had always said that 2017 was a deadline rather than a fixed date.”

George Osborne, the chancellor, will meet other European finance ministers at a summit in Brussels on Tuesday. The issue of Britain’s membership of the EU is not on the official agenda, but it is expected to be raised informally.

A parliamentary bill to approve the referendum will be included in the Queen’s speech on 27 May. The bill will be formally tabled in the House of Commons shortly afterwards to ensure that the prime minister has the option of holding the referendum next year.

Government sources say there are key factors that could accelerate the momentum towards a 2016 referendum. The early introduction of the bill – and the Tories’ surprise parliamentary majority – will mean that it could enter the statute book by the end of this year if it is given a reasonably easy ride in the House of Lords.





Analysis/ Sajid Javid will face industry pressure on EU referendum and airport growth

In/out debate and infrastructure projects are two of the biggest issues facing the new business secretary – and he can count on business leaders’ intense lobbying




Read more

If peers break with the Salisbury convention, which says that the upper house should not delay measures in the winning party’s election manifesto, then the government would have to force the bill through using the Parliament Act. This would take place a year after the bill’s second reading in the Commons which means the prime minister could override the Lords in June 2016. This means the referendum could be held in July or after the summer break in September 2016.




Cameron is likely to signal his determination to press ahead with the EU negotiations by reappointing the Europe minister, David Lidington, who is the longest-serving holder of the post after being appointed in 2010.




Another factor pointing to an early referendum, according to government sources, is a change in calculations in Brussels and in some key EU capitals after the prime minister’s surprise election win.

One source said: “It was made pretty clear that the European council [the grouping of the EU’s 28 leaders] would not engage seriously until the election result was clear. Now they know they have to deal with us and they want the UK to stay in the EU. We expect the negotiations to take place in 2015 and 2016 so they finish well ahead of the French presidential elections [in the spring of 2017] and the German federal elections [in September 2017].”

The newly installed government expects that the negotiations would lead to a legally binding protocol encompassing the UK’s demands. But EU leaders have said they would only revise the Lisbon treaty if Britain voted yes in the referendum.








David Cameron unveils first Tory-only cabinet in 18 years







Read more

Government sources took heart from an intervention by José Manuel Barroso, the former president of the European commission, who said the prime minister had a greater chance of success after enhancing his authority in the election.

Cameron signalled his determination to press ahead with the referendum when he declared that he now had an electoral mandate for reform. As he arrived for Monday’s meeting of the 1922 committee of MPs at Westminster, he said: “We have a mandate. It is going to be tough.”

The remarks show Cameron knows that he will face a difficult battle in the four key areas where he will seek to renegotiate Britain’s membership terms. These aim to:
Give Britain an opt-out from the historic EU ambition to forge an “ever closer union” of the peoples of Europe.
Create safeguards to ensure that changes in the single market cannot be imposed on non-eurozone members by the eurozone.
Tighten access to in-work and out-of-work benefits for EU migrants.

Hand greater powers to national parliaments to block EU legislation.

Britain was given a taste of the challenge in the EU negotiations when eastern European leaders warned the prime minister not to restrict the ability of EU migrants to travel to the UK. Europe ministers from Slovakia, Hungary and Poland told the Financial Times that the free movement of migrant workers was a red-line issue for them.

Britain also found itself at odds with the European commission over plans to require all EU member states to take in quotas of migrants. Theresa May, the home secretary, rejected the proposal.
 

alexaherself

Established member
Europe ministers from Slovakia, Hungary and Poland told the Financial Times that the free movement of migrant workers was a red-line issue for them.

That doesn't necessarily have to be a stumbling block, I think? "Workers" can perhaps be defined as "people with a job?". As mentioned above, "freedom of movement of labour" and "freedom of movement of people" are not necessarily exactly the same thing?
 

f2calv

Experienced member
That doesn't necessarily have to be a stumbling block, I think? "Workers" can perhaps be defined as "people with a job?". As mentioned above, "freedom of movement of labour" and "freedom of movement of people" are not necessarily exactly the same thing?
Some might call that splitting hairs... but not I :cheesy:
 
 
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