UK UK General Election 2015 & GBPUSD - forecasts/predictions?

N

neil324

0 0
IMHO, even with only 8-9% of the vote, the Lib Dems would get considerably more than 15 seats: nationwide polls never take into account the extent of the "local goodwill factor" to individual Lib Dem sitting MP's.

This is partly a long-term historical factor, since the Lib Dems have a considerable record (compared with the main parties) for local grass-roots campaigning, council seats and so on, and there are distinct pockets of Lib Dem support which traditionally defy national trends.

I suspect that this time there'll also be a much more recent, short-term effect (suggesting the same outcome) in that many Lib Dem sitting MP's have never before been "in the news" so much as at this election: the proportion of Lib Dem MP's who have held ministerial office at some point over the last five years is enormous, compared with those from the main parties at previous general elections. This can also only help them locally, on voting day, I think.

Regarding "likely seat numbers" for Lib Dems, Nationalists, UKIP and the Greens, I think Lord Ashcroft's local polling is likely to be far more reliably indicative than the nationwide polls now performed daily by the big polling companies.

Betfair's pre-election market - which of course takes updated polling information into account - suggests about 25/26 Lib Dem seats, rather than 15. On this subject, I trust that perspective a lot more than the Telegraph's. ;)

They work out the number of seats from the poll by this,

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Nothing to do with who done the poll. Ashcroft's polls would go through the same algorithm, his last poll has libdems on 9% also.
 

Atilla

Legendary member
19,908 3,159
fwiw guys there is trader talk that the Tories winning the election has a greater downside risk to Cable than Labour & SNP coalition.

Eyes have turned towards the European referendum promised by Cameron. It is perceived that this will lead to greater uncertainty and risk for the pound if Conservatives in particular with UKIP get to exercise control.

Going to be awfully messy so it would seem either way.

I think cable may well test the 1.42 regions sooner or later. (n)
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,432 1,362
I think time has come for me to get back into GBP/USD's downtrend.

We're unlikely to have a secure sole governing party, making the new administration's actions very hard to estimate. This can't be bullish. Looking back over recent election years, we normally run down towards voting day.

On the charts, we've just confirmed a weak and low swing high, showing a shooting star / pin bar pattern, and we're going lower today. Apart from some EUR pairs, this is weakest pair by my TA criteria.
 

Pat494

Legendary member
14,617 1,581
I think time has come for me to get back into GBP/USD's downtrend.

We're unlikely to have a secure sole governing party, making the new administration's actions very hard to estimate. This can't be bullish. Looking back over recent election years, we normally run down towards voting day.

On the charts, we've just confirmed a weak and low swing high, showing a shooting star / pin bar pattern, and we're going lower today. Apart from some EUR pairs, this is weakest pair by my TA criteria.

See what you mean. But glancing at the chart - it seems to be of the same opinion and done the drop already ?
 

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Pat494

Legendary member
14,617 1,581
How about a big shake up and have a punt on UKIP for 30+ seats ?
 

Pat494

Legendary member
14,617 1,581
Three weeks before polling day, the best value bets available on various different parties winning the most seats were (according to oddschecker.com) as follows:

Conservatives: 8/15

Labour: 7/4

Anyone else: 1,000/1

The best value bets available on who would be prime minister after the general election as follows:

David Cameron: evens

Ed Miliband: evens

Neither Miliband nor Cameron: 33/1

Boris Johnson: 66/1

David Miliband: 100/1

George Osborne: 100/1

Nick Clegg: 1,000/1

Tony Blair: 1,000/1

Best value bets on which party might win an overall majority:

Conservative: 7/1

Labour: 40/1

Ukip: 500/1

Lib Dem: 1,000/1

No overall majority: 1/8

Best value bets on various coalition options:

Conservative/Lib Dem: 7/1

Labour/Lib Dem: 8/1

Labour/SNP: 16/1

Conservative/Lib Dem/DUP: 33/1

Conservative/Labour: 40/1

Conservative/Ukip/DUP: 50/1

Labour/Green: 66/1

Conservative/DUP: 100/1

Labour/DUP: 100/1
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,432 1,362
See what you mean. But glancing at the chart - it seems to be of the same opinion and done the drop already ?


Coud be Pat, price has only been ranging recently. Then again, overall structure is bearish and I have to not second-guess my own system.
 

TechQuant

Well-known member
264 52
You’re not going to see anything in spot cable. Currency derivative spreads are widening which indicates expectations of increasing volatility – no surprise there. But with 3yr gilts yielding just 0.8% and 30yr only 2.3% plus premium of insurance across these being rock steady, there’s clearly no indication of any expectation of longer term impact on sterling beyond the general election.
 

alexaherself

Established member
560 149
I think time has come for me to get back into GBP/USD's downtrend.

Hoping not ... I'm long on Cable at the moment, from 1.4915, since about 3.30 this afternoon. But moving my stop-loss up anxiously, reading this thread ... :|
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,432 1,362
Well well well. Red light flashed up on my target spreadsheet on tonight's Close so no short for me on GBP/USD. Lucky escape?
 
 
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