Pat Riley
Established member
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@Sharky did us real proud with the Scotland Independence Referendum by putting up a prize of £25,000 for the competition winner. Can’t remember who bagged it, but I’m sure they’re eternally grateful. I’d like to suggest he’ll want to show us even greater largesse this time what with it being that much more of an important do altogether. But if he’s on hard times and doesn’t even know where the money’s comin from for the next bikini wax, well, we’ll have a competition just for the fun of it.
Here’s me suggestion.
We all have a shot at predicting the number of seats each of the parties get. To make things manageable I propose we only go for the top (likely) parties to poll the majority of the votes. So Conservative, Labour, Lib-Dem, UKIP, SNP. So Plaid Cymru, Greens etc are not included. We also take a shot at predicting voting turnout for the UK as a whole.
Everyone can make as many predictions as they like, but only the last one prior to the cut-off of mid-night BST May 6th will count. So ya can change yer mind as much as you like before the day itself.
Scoring will be the sum of the differences between your predicted number of seats and actual number of seats for those five parties. If you get it spot on for all five your cumulative score will be zero. If your prediction is plus or minus the actual is will count as a negative score for the difference between the two. The person with the least negative score will be declared the winner. In the event of a draw, the person who gets closest to percentage turnout for the UK as a whole will be the winner. If it’s still a draw it’s shin-kicking at dawn.
Scoring - e.g. predict 300 actual 280 you score -20 or predict 300 actual 320 you score -20 etc.
I’ll offer to do the hard yards at mid-night BST May 6th and compile the table for those who have entered.
I’ll not be voting in the real thing for all sorts a reasons, but if I were, I’d be voting green (lowercase) and I suggest you all do the same and vote for your favourite colour ‘cos that’s got to make about as much sense as trying to figure which parties manifesto has any chance of any of it seeing the light of day let alone passing into legislation.
Here’s me suggestion.
We all have a shot at predicting the number of seats each of the parties get. To make things manageable I propose we only go for the top (likely) parties to poll the majority of the votes. So Conservative, Labour, Lib-Dem, UKIP, SNP. So Plaid Cymru, Greens etc are not included. We also take a shot at predicting voting turnout for the UK as a whole.
Everyone can make as many predictions as they like, but only the last one prior to the cut-off of mid-night BST May 6th will count. So ya can change yer mind as much as you like before the day itself.
Scoring will be the sum of the differences between your predicted number of seats and actual number of seats for those five parties. If you get it spot on for all five your cumulative score will be zero. If your prediction is plus or minus the actual is will count as a negative score for the difference between the two. The person with the least negative score will be declared the winner. In the event of a draw, the person who gets closest to percentage turnout for the UK as a whole will be the winner. If it’s still a draw it’s shin-kicking at dawn.
Scoring - e.g. predict 300 actual 280 you score -20 or predict 300 actual 320 you score -20 etc.
I’ll offer to do the hard yards at mid-night BST May 6th and compile the table for those who have entered.
I’ll not be voting in the real thing for all sorts a reasons, but if I were, I’d be voting green (lowercase) and I suggest you all do the same and vote for your favourite colour ‘cos that’s got to make about as much sense as trying to figure which parties manifesto has any chance of any of it seeing the light of day let alone passing into legislation.
