UK 2015 General Election - Competition

Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
@Sharky did us real proud with the Scotland Independence Referendum by putting up a prize of £25,000 for the competition winner. Can’t remember who bagged it, but I’m sure they’re eternally grateful. I’d like to suggest he’ll want to show us even greater largesse this time what with it being that much more of an important do altogether. But if he’s on hard times and doesn’t even know where the money’s comin from for the next bikini wax, well, we’ll have a competition just for the fun of it.

Here’s me suggestion.

We all have a shot at predicting the number of seats each of the parties get. To make things manageable I propose we only go for the top (likely) parties to poll the majority of the votes. So Conservative, Labour, Lib-Dem, UKIP, SNP. So Plaid Cymru, Greens etc are not included. We also take a shot at predicting voting turnout for the UK as a whole.

Everyone can make as many predictions as they like, but only the last one prior to the cut-off of mid-night BST May 6th will count. So ya can change yer mind as much as you like before the day itself.

Scoring will be the sum of the differences between your predicted number of seats and actual number of seats for those five parties. If you get it spot on for all five your cumulative score will be zero. If your prediction is plus or minus the actual is will count as a negative score for the difference between the two. The person with the least negative score will be declared the winner. In the event of a draw, the person who gets closest to percentage turnout for the UK as a whole will be the winner. If it’s still a draw it’s shin-kicking at dawn.

Scoring - e.g. predict 300 actual 280 you score -20 or predict 300 actual 320 you score -20 etc.

I’ll offer to do the hard yards at mid-night BST May 6th and compile the table for those who have entered.

I’ll not be voting in the real thing for all sorts a reasons, but if I were, I’d be voting green (lowercase) and I suggest you all do the same and vote for your favourite colour ‘cos that’s got to make about as much sense as trying to figure which parties manifesto has any chance of any of it seeing the light of day let alone passing into legislation.
 

Atilla

Legendary member
19,673 3,009
@Sharky did us real proud with the Scotland Independence Referendum by putting up a prize of £25,000 for the competition winner. Can’t remember who bagged it, but I’m sure they’re eternally grateful. I’d like to suggest he’ll want to show us even greater largesse this time what with it being that much more of an important do altogether. But if he’s on hard times and doesn’t even know where the money’s comin from for the next bikini wax, well, we’ll have a competition just for the fun of it.

Here’s me suggestion.

We all have a shot at predicting the number of seats each of the parties get. To make things manageable I propose we only go for the top (likely) parties to poll the majority of the votes. So Conservative, Labour, Lib-Dem, UKIP, SNP. So Plaid Cymru, Greens etc are not included. We also take a shot at predicting voting turnout for the UK as a whole.

Everyone can make as many predictions as they like, but only the last one prior to the cut-off of mid-night BST May 6th will count. So ya can change yer mind as much as you like before the day itself.

Scoring will be the sum of the differences between your predicted number of seats and actual number of seats for those five parties. If you get it spot on for all five your cumulative score will be zero. If your prediction is plus or minus the actual is will count as a negative score for the difference between the two. The person with the least negative score will be declared the winner. In the event of a draw, the person who gets closest to percentage turnout for the UK as a whole will be the winner. If it’s still a draw it’s shin-kicking at dawn.

Scoring - e.g. predict 300 actual 280 you score -20 or predict 300 actual 320 you score -20 etc.

I’ll offer to do the hard yards at mid-night BST May 6th and compile the table for those who have entered.

I’ll not be voting in the real thing for all sorts a reasons, but if I were, I’d be voting green (lowercase) and I suggest you all do the same and vote for your favourite colour ‘cos that’s got to make about as much sense as trying to figure which parties manifesto has any chance of any of it seeing the light of day let alone passing into legislation.

Grrreat idea :)



294 - Conservative
287 - Labour
25 - Lib-Dem
8 - UKIP
55 - SNP
 

Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
Cynical Pat just had a word in me ear and I'm going ta suggest one proviso for entries. Members have ta have been a member of the site as of yesterday (Sunday April 26th) to qualify. Pre-existing multi-nics free to vote as many times as they have nics subject to moderators' discretion. I'm assuming the mods don't have multi-nics but who knows these days?
 

Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
Good man Atilla (what about the percentage turnout?). I'm about ta have a shot at it meself.
 

Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
Conservatives - 267
Labour - 244
Lib-Dem - 39
UKIP - 26
SNP - 38

Turnout 68%
 

Atilla

Legendary member
19,673 3,009
294 - Conservative
287 - Labour
25 - Lib-Dem
8 - UKIP
55 - SNP

Turnout: 72%% - Your country needs you :)
 

Pat494

Legendary member
14,625 1,578
[MENTION=3]I’ll not be voting in the real thing for all sorts a reasons,.

Probably haven't got a vote in the UK being Irish ? Or am I just nit-picking ?

:p

Cons 246
Labour 236
UKIP 33
LIBs 10
SNP 44
Others 100

% of vote 79
 

Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
Probably haven't got a vote in the UK being Irish ? Or am I just nit-picking ?
Citizens of the Republic of Ireland, providing they are registered to vote, may do so in a UK general election. However, members of the House of Lords are not. I leave you to draw your own conclusions.

Lord Riley of Dublin
 

Pat494

Legendary member
14,625 1,578
Citizens of the Republic of Ireland, providing they are registered to vote, may do so in a UK general election. However, members of the House of Lords are not. I leave you to draw your own conclusions.

Lord Riley of Dublin

Really ? In which constituency ?
Can't think why. We haven't got a vote in Eire, have we ?

So that's why the Tories keep getting in. Or were they Whigs ?
 

Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
All RoI citizens who are eligible to vote in UK elections can do so for any party putting up a candidate in their constituency. Just the same as any British citizens eligible to vote in Dáil elections may do so under the 9th amendment of the Constitution of Ireland.
 

alexaherself

Established member
560 149
Thanks for doing this, Pat. :cool:

Conservatives: 269
Labour: 274
Lib Dems: 31
SNP: 49
Ukip: 4

Will be back when I change my mind ... :eek:
 
 
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