The Journey from the Basement

[BBB]

Quote:
Some of these nautical things can be very confusing.
Like the Sextant for example;
All sextants have errors on the graduated arc.the rule is:~
when calculating a reading after having carried out an observation,,
"when its off , its on,
and when its off its on"
This is a frightful riddle to anyone who is not a navigator,
and thankfully is not relevant to this discussion, but I thought I would mention it as a curiosity

Actually, I would have thought this is very relevant

How can anyone be sure what their data feed is telling them is the truth?
They cant. Data feeds can lie and we can never be sure what we think we see is really there - past or present.

 

[Finlayson]

We are led to Believe a Lie
When we see not Thro' the Eye
Which was Born in a Night to Perish in a Night

 

[china white]

China

Your second scenario

Yes he did the best he could in

1 Trying to get what he wanted – the bread

2 Trying to persuade the 2nd crow that he was preserving it for him

As a result gannet will go easy on crows until he needs another piece of food.

But perspective comes into this – the gannet would have taken from either or any crow. And they would mostly have reacted in the same way.

The crows had two perspectives and they were probably both going to lose lunch as a result

Crow 1 lost direct as a result of his own mistake

Crow 2 lost as a result of a mistake of another and suffered the consequences


The value in this is that having taken a position the gannet is able to take advantage of anyhing that come along in sght of that position - it can wait for whatever comes along and take advantage of its size to frighten others into unwise actions

What we need to learn is CONTEXT and PERSPECTIVE – thanks!

well spotted, yes in scenario 2) the gannet (the germans) still got their victims (6000 canadian force) but don't u reckon crow 1 did it on purpose, pretending he is so sloppy that he let the predator easily get his prey - winning on a future time scale? isn't it a bit similar to cooling off the rally selling 1/3 of your long exposure to let smaller fish start shorting, may be get a point or two, just for the crow1 to re-enter AT A FUTURE TIME at better prices?

 

[Rognvald]

GOTCHA Thanks
2nd take - are u really saying what you r saying? yes - I think ur.

well spotted, yes in scenario 2) the gannet (the germans) still got their victims (6000 canadian force) but don't u reckon crow 1 did it on purpose, pretending he is so sloppy that he let the predator easily get his prey - winning on a future time scale? isn't it a bit similar to cooling off the rally selling 1/3 of your long exposure to let smaller fish start shorting, may be get a point or two, just for the crow1 to re-enter AT A FUTURE TIME at better prices?

 

[china white]

i apologise again for bringing up examples from recent war history where ppl died and suffered, as illustrations for trading decisions. I fully understand that this is no matter for jokes. HOWEVER, trading is WAR and war examples serve best for illustration IMHO.

 

[Rognvald]

cw I feel that a gap of 50+ years puts nearly all human activity into perspective ..................

 

[china white]

Oh, and btw - just crossed my mind - think for a second about gannet's decisions in my scenario 2) - even if germans are smart enough to understand that it is not a real invasion and all is done to create a better platform for a larger future entry (AND pursuade the crow 2 - russians - that crow 1 does everything he can) - THE GANNET HAS NO CHOICE BUT TO TAKE THE FOOD!!!!! germans cannot afford to let those canadians to entrench in France EVEN if they see what the game is! U c how tables are turned here and our Crow is NOT AT ALL that sloppy?

 

[china white]

sorry - thinking even further

put yourself in gannet's position in my scenario 2). Imagine u r Guderian or Von Bock

u suss the game, u cant let them entrench - what's your best option?

to pounce on that food BUT just bite it and let it there for the crows, AND put Panzer divisions BEHIND the canadian landing line (place sells above this accumulation area, allow another leg up and then sell the hell out of it AT EVEN BETTER PRICES!!!!) u mess up crows' plans at once! Crow 2 starts pressuring Crow 1 to go further - pick up the bulk of the food, crow 1 sends more troops - no choice, the invasion is seemingly working - just to meet Achtung Panzieren 20-30 miles further into France (population of offers 5-6 pts higher), where gannet counterattacks with all ferocity (massive selling).

 

[china white]

actually a scary thought.

IF the germans did what i described in my previous post, they wud lure the crows out of their positions achieveing 2 things at the same time:

1) seeding a major distrust btwn Churchill and Stalin;
2) and, allowing this "invasion" to develop, they'd eventually annihilate not only 6000 canadians but another 60000 english who wud follow.

The allied plans for 2 fronts wud be buried, the germans wud get another 1-2 yrs, in which time they'd 1) produce their atomic weapons and 2) train enough pilots for ME-110 jets. In which case the'd TIE the war.....

U see how decisions in PRESENT are actually FUTURE decisions?

 

[china white]

Bottom line - in scenario 2) gannet was manipulated into making NOT his best decision, and allowing the first leg of rally ao accumulate (and even giving early shorts food - a couple of points) the crows created a massive platform for this rally to grow legs.

 

[bracke]

SOCRATES

A point that is apparent from of your animal stories is the variety of interpretations given to the the story.

Given that most of the posters are traders it is easy to understand why one traders sell is anothers buy, yet we all receive the same information.

As I think you have stated or alluded to previously, we interpret from our own experiences, perceptions and particular interests.

We should be trading what we see, which is what many try to do but we have great difficulty in shedding the scales from our eyes.

Regards

bracke

 

[BBB]

I expect a lot of you will find The Education of a Speculator by Victor Niederhoffer very interesting.

It is full of comparisons between markets and animal behaviour, war & battle, love & sex, sports & athletics, gaming theory, con-men, life in general etc etc.

Although Victor went bust (several times), I would have thought this was due to his statistical approach and to the market (causing him to start averaging down etc). He used to be an extremely successful trader however, coming out of the Soros stable (Soros is a close personal friend to VN) Never the less, an interesting read for you all - especially as its only a cheap paperback, and quite thick - so ideal to take on your holiday this summer.

 

[SOCRATES]

Quote:
Some of these nautical things can be very confusing.
Like the Sextant for example;
All sextants have errors on the graduated arc.the rule is:~
when calculating a reading after having carried out an observation,,
"when its off , its on,
and when its off its on"
This is a frightful riddle to anyone who is not a navigator,
and thankfully is not relevant to this discussion, but I thought I would mention it as a curiosity

Actually, I would have thought this is very relevant

How can anyone be sure what their data feed is telling them is the truth?
They cant. Data feeds can lie and we can never be sure what we think we see is really there - past or present.

And incidentally, now that you mention this, how many of you have had a fright,
thinking the feed is down, shutting down the PC, restarting etc., going through all
the drills and worrying, only to realise it is a holiday ! Ha ! Ha ! ha !

 

[SOCRATES]

The crow has arrived in his situation by chancing on the roll and moving to what he felt would be a safer higher position. The gannet sees that the crow is uncomfortable and is an opportunist. He is also on "home" ground. He has webbed feet on a steeply slanting roof. He can wait until the crow must address his awkward situation. He makes the crow aware of his presence. He then takes full advantage when the self-concious crow is "forced" to move.

Oaty, the lynchpin of your idea is that the Gannet is on home ground,,,,,,,,,"Lynch!" Ha ! Ha ! Ha !
Well spotted !

 

[SOCRATES]

You see what I meant!! You've all started discussing the finer points of avian classification which has diverted minds (conscious or subconscious) from the real point

We will get back to this later, let them enjoy themselves when an opportunity arises,
this is very different to interruptions from the rude and ignorant, don't you agree ?
I have asked A 320 to clear up your muddle with the index. Any joy so far ? Later perhaps.

 

[china white]

Socrates, btw I apologise for distracting ppl from the purpose of your animal lesson by my Scenario 2). of coz for that scenario to work out, crows must have intelligence and teamwork of humans of which crows r not capable of. Nor has the gannet the military skills of Guderian!

 

[SOCRATES]

And talking of muddles, yes, Bracke, referring to your post 1353, you see how easy it is to be confused, as turns often occur like quicksilver, therefore if the mind is not prepared for it. by the time it happens, it too late. More about this later, perhaps in group discussion, I am off for a mug of tea and a sticky bun.

 

[Rognvald]

If crows locate an owl during the day, they will mob it -- swooping low, calling excitedly and attracting other crows, and generally harassing the bigger, less-manoeuverable bird. They also mob hawks. In turn, crows are mobbed by smaller birds.

Oaty, the lynchpin of your idea is that the Gannet is on home ground,,,,,,,,,"Lynch!" Ha ! Ha ! Ha !
Well spotted !

 

[james88]

We will get back to this later, let them enjoy themselves when an opportunity arises,
this is very different to interruptions from the rude and ignorant, don't you agree ?
I have asked A 320 to clear up your muddle with the index. Any joy so far ? Later perhaps.

And despite the rude and ignorant interruptions your marvelous sense of humour is still intact

BRAVO Socrates !!

 

[SOCRATES]

Socrates, btw I apologise for distracting ppl from the purpose of your animal lesson by my Scenario 2). of coz for that scenario to work out, crows must have intelligence and teamwork of humans of which crows r not capable of. Nor has the gannet the military skills of Guderian!

No, that 's alright China, all these discussions are constuctive because they help to bond
people who have not common problems but different varietes of similar problems that
beset all traders.

The idea is that if their awareness can be raised so that they are more readily able to identify, that is to pinpoint precisely where it is that these problems lie, this is a very good start in the right direction for them to be able to carry out their plans in a proper manner.

This is why Animal Lessons are such fun. They are able to raise the interest of the
audience for them to contemplate when reading these allegories, sufficiently for them
to have realisations, wihout it appearing to being work, but a bit of fun instead.

But it is work, what they are doing is voluntarily entering the Gym.
This is the Gym of the mind. The mind cannot develop the correct muscles
to tackle complex problems that are unfamilliar
without being given the correct excercises to stimulate thoughts.

Hopefully when these thoughts are rolled around again and again and considered
from several angles , hopefully these thoughts will trigger realisations.
This is the object of the excercise. Without realisations very little if anything can
be achieved.

When these realisations that people suddenly have, are personal and meaningful
to them and their circumstances, their aspirations, their hopes , their fears, and they
are subtly discovered to be constructively useful then it will be seen that all these discussions about Animal Lessons have a hidden value not obvious on a first and perhaps cursory inspection.

So you are all urged to be attentive, and to participate constructively, as when you do so,
in reality you are stimulating thought and hence realisations even though you may at first
not consciously think so .....but somehow at a subconscious level notice that something
of your understanding is changing, is somehow improving for the better, the more you
are able to have these realisations by considering scenarios which are not directly realted
to trading but have certain similarities, certain resonances, in parallel to the task in hand,
the better will be your ability to tackle things, eventually to tackle those things which
you would normally find most daunting.