S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2022

Velo

Junior member
4196 thanks.
 

Atilla

Legendary member
Good luck to you all in week 23 folks.

We have 8 bulls and just 2 bears this week. 1nvest is leading the bulls. I'm out on my own with my lil trend following android. Field is wide open.

Have a good week y'all now... :)

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Atilla

Legendary member
Here goes week 24 forecasts and we are just 3 weeks away from seeing half of 2022 through. Summer time and a bit of glorious sunshine has just arrived here in the sunny garden of England. :) Yay.

We have 8 bears and 2 bulls. Looks like the field has just simply reversed from last week's 8 bulls and 2 bears. How weird. :)

Anyhow, Monday has kicked off with a 150 point drop so looking like the bears may have it. Big question hanging over the next Fed rate hike.... Oooohhhh. :eek:

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Wishing you all good prosperous trading and sunny days. :)
 

Atilla

Legendary member
Well done to Velo who takes the gold, taking his medal count to 5 in total after only 11 games. 👏👏

Snowsword takes the silver spot earning valuable points. (y)

The BB_Tfs_v2 wins the bronze medal, missing out on silver by just 5 points.

The bears despite being many in number were still more bullish then where the market has ended up. That's a pretty bad looking market to me. Fed not acting earlier deserves some humble pie imo. BoE not far behind playing catch up too.

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Quarter 2 - Leader Board
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Well it looks like I have won Quarter 2. Don't remember winning anything for years. BB_Tfs could draw with me if we take opposing directions and BB gets the gold earning 4 points and me losing -1 would bring the totals to 19 each. Oooohhh what shall I do? Have to do some star gazing over the weekend :).


Have a great weekend y'all now and make the last call for Quarter 2 count. :)
 
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Snowsword

Junior member
Atilla, congratulations! BTW, you are all doing great(y)
I have a suggestion - in the next round of competition, it might be more challenging and fun to add the predictions for weekly high and low as well.
The score can be counted as (high+low+close+direction). E.g. someone who ranks 1 on high, 5 on low, and 3 on close, then his score would be (3+0+1+1)=5.
 

Atilla

Legendary member
Hi Snowsword,

It is a good idea and I'd put it out to all participating forecasters for their viewpoint for comment?

This competition is managed and run by the members and it was instigated by one of our old members Pat, who is no longer here sadly. The format is to keep it simple and we did try some variations. The last one was to add a negative score for incorrect direction.

The spreadsheet has evolved into this current format what you see and the medals to represent proximity and points works well and reasonably simple.

Thinking about the extra work involved in effectively forecasting the weekly CandleStick formation, will add complexity to the scoring and representation of the league table. I'm not clear on the example you have given either with respect to how points are awarded.

High = 3
Low = 0
Close = 1
Direction = 1

Is that right? What if direction was Low?

I think there has to be cost to over-guessing highs and lows.

Getting market direction and trend I reckon is important in trending so that needs to be rewarded or punished if incorrect.

Perhaps what I'm getting at is what is the value in predicting the lows and highs in a weekly move.

Happy to consider it but if we can have a little more info and feedback from the forecasters that would be helpful.
 
 
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