[PORTFOLIO] demo Portfolio with Darwin heroes of 2021

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IlIlIlIlI

Established member
595 557
UAE replaces TKT which was sold with small loss.
1629118375545.png

Porfolios continues to show profit for August.
1629118460536.png
 

IlIlIlIlI

Established member
595 557
Today happened what I feared since two months it could appear:
1629310689983.png

Unfortunately I had to sell the worst loser of this portfolio's history.
UAE and BFS disappeared from the filter.
1629311237244.png

The new portfolio composition looks like this:
1629311293690.png
 

CavaliereVerde

Experienced member
1,551 1,996
Same punch on WGP and NWO could not be predicted, but BAX+YAX had to be avoided especially on a relatively compact portfolio.
Besides filters and parameters one of my oldest rules is no more than one darwin per trader.
 
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IlIlIlIlI

Established member
595 557
5 Darwins of 15 out of the list are shown correlated in the top 10 of BAX: YAX, TKT, ICX, WGP and NWO.
Unfortunately Darwinex does not show the risk map before you enter a position.
So there is a deeper due dilligence needed for every Darwin to find it out.
And to find a rule what is to take and what is to leave out.

I'm also thinking about a change on the sort sequence to 6 months or 1 year and to reduce the number of Darwins to 6. I'm checking that from time to time.
 

CavaliereVerde

Experienced member
1,551 1,996
Correlation is the past, like return an DD.
Often what is uncorrelated in the past correlates in the future so I don't overestimate uncorrelation.
Uncorrelation is good for scholars writing books about portfolio (over)optimization.
Darwins provided by the same trader is a real fundamental information, true for the past and true for the future.

Edit:
TKT and NWO managed by the same trader, same loss today.
 
Last edited:

IlIlIlIlI

Established member
595 557
BAX left the filter and I changed the sorting to 6 months.
There were changes:
1629468724713.png


The new composition:
1629468668720.png

This is the last try as I don't know whether it makes sense to continue.
There happens the same as with all portfolios build by filters.
Maybe the correlation is too near by the filter criteria as Darwins found trade the same or too similar stuff when they appear.
 
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CavaliereVerde

Experienced member
1,551 1,996
Are you looking for a strategy to print profit every month?
There is no way to acheive it with a darwin porfolio (and neither in other ways from the market).

Filters maybe are not enough, my filter gives me 26 darwins and I have difficulty to keep 10 darwins in my porfolio because of other requirements besides the filter.
Return is not so predictive, there is no reason for the return of the first part of 2021 to be more predictive than the return of 2020.
This does not mean that this kind of momentum investing cannot work with the right tweaks.
 

IlIlIlIlI

Established member
595 557
Portfolio was restructured according to the filter list sorted by 6 months.
MUF failed the La requirement, ENI was accidentialy sold and rebought.
1629744408815.png


Currently there are only 12 Darwins in the filter.
ERQ can't be bought.
Theses 10 out of the remaining 11 are in the portfolio now:
1629744546141.png
 

CavaliereVerde

Experienced member
1,551 1,996
The probem is not the filter but the fact that you are buying and selling darwins every day.
It will get even worse sorting with return on 6m.
You haven't fixed a rotation timeframe so as soon as you see a change you buy or sell.
Look to stock inedxes, they don't update avery day.
Every time you make a change you realize a loss, you buy after a profit and sell after a loss.
Return(6m) is useful to find exciting darwins not to invest, darwins will pop in and out after a couple of lucky or unlucky days.
Momentum investing could work, noise investing will never work.
 

IlIlIlIlI

Established member
595 557
The probem is not the filter but the fact that you are buying and selling darwins every day.
It will get even worse sorting with return on 6m.
You haven't fixed a rotation timeframe so as soon as you see a change you buy or sell.
Look to stock inedxes, they don't update avery day.
Every time you make a change you realize a loss, you buy after a profit and sell after a loss.
Return(6m) is useful to find exciting darwins not to invest, darwins will pop in and out after a couple of lucky or unlucky days.
Momentum investing could work, noise investing will never work.
If a Darwin does not fit the filter criteria and you don't act, your composition is random to the random picture on a certain date.

I don't replace Darwins immediately if they change ranking in the 6m sort, otherwise I must replace ENI today by ULL which will not be done, for sure not today, just because ULL is visible in the filter again with a better ranking.

The problem is that too many Darwins are correlated when they appear in the filter because the traders are trading correlated or the same stuff with the same trading idea, like trading zones.

The second problem is that Darwinex does not support the correlation data reliable or a tool for that for investors. ILR for example does not show any correlated Darwins since weeks.

I could write more, but the biggest lack is that there are no tolls to compare Darwins but filters and the strange correlation calculation. Darwinex didn't improve anything in the last years, no tools for the API etc.
 
 
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