The high return demo portfolio number 2

[IlIlIlIlI]

After closing my old demo portfolio, I started a new one.

Following changes were made:

1) The filter was extended and/or changed.

2) I do not react immediately when a Darwin appears or disappers in the filter.

3) I might exclude a Darwin from buying when it appears in the filter as I did when I started it. This Darwin disappeared again a very few days later and did not appear again until now.

4) Position size might vary between the Darwins when the cash received after selling the old ones is more or less than the position size of the remaining positions.

With the old demo portfolio I reacterd like an EA immediately.
Now I do a small analysis of it and decide later whether to buy or sell it.
That's it.


The filter:

The one year backtest for the current composition:

The performance for the first month:

The current composition:

The complete trading history including partial closings:

The performnace fees paid or retained:

The management fees:

The profit is only on the open positions, the demo portfolio lost money on the closed positions until now.

The composition is stable in the filter since about three weeks.

We'll see whether this portfolio just started with a successful month or whether it will show profit for a longer period.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

One killed performance of all

Sold completely

To get enough money for a new position, also the other Darwins had to be partially sold.


Bought:

Results:

 

[CavaliereVerde]

One killed performance of all

This is the problem with diversification, or better diworsification.
You have to assume that 95% of the return that you see is due to luck.

 

[trilobite]

The explosive needle set fire to the haystack

 

[DeLorenzoFund]

That Darwin experienced a 30% drawdown in just 4 days, ouch!

Not sure if the trader's strategy is to either average down on losing trades or take high probability trades using a very large stop loss and aiming to get pennies of profit on it. It could also be a change of behavior from the trader where he suddenly increased his trade size.

It looks like the underlying strategy suffered a 60% drawdown. The track record is only 8 months long, what got you to select this Darwin for your portfolio?

By giving a quick look at the strategy vs the AUDCAD that he trades it seems to me that his strategy is based on averaging down and hoping for a rebound, which at some point we all know those strategies fail when there is not a rebound.

Here is a comparison of his open trades and exposure vs the recent chart of AUDCAD matched on the same dates. it looks like his system averages down on those pullbacks, on the last one the volatility was too high and AUDCAD keeps dropping, at that point he had a total of 49 open trades in the same asset.

I know I'm a nerd when it comes to this stuff 😄but I got curious as to what could have caused this massive and sudden drawdown,

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

YFBL was sold because
a) it disappeared from the filter (it was sold when it was absent in the filter permanently for a couple of days)
b) the chart was adding more red bars than ever before

The money was transferred to all other open position which currently all show profit:

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

The demo portfolio could not recover fully until end of April.

Currently there are 6 Darwins shown in the filter:

And in the portfolio:

Performance fees and positions closed:

Management fees:

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Before the second transaction of May 2025 was processed, the portfolio looked like this over the weekend:

May chart until now:

On 1st of May RFXE was sold with a small profit and IME was bought.
The current performance of both Darwins confirn this decision as good.
As the fees ran the balance into the negative, IME could not be bought with the samer size as the existing positions had.

XMU has more than 10% profit. It will be sold and bought back to get the full advantage of the x3 leverage.
First XMU will be bought with the same size as the other poitions have (besides IME).
Then IME will get the same same size as the others have.
The rest will be split on all 6 Darwin positions.

After executing these transactions tonight the portfolio shows this composition:

The invested amount is still below the amount derived with x3 leverage from the deposit, but the equity is significantly higher, also if the investment fee on the open positions is to pay in about 3 weeks.

The performance fee list has now a new leader with XMU:

Management fees: