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The DarwinIA lottery demo portfolio supported by the Hall of Fame

Thanks. I am trying to find rational criteria to define an in-portfolio threshold.
The last Darwin I sold into profit purely because of consistently increasing negative divergence (NWO after 6 months) was already cancellling more than half (55%) of it's return rate in the portfolio.
The most negatively divergent one I currently hold into profit is cancelling 11% of its return rate after 14 months.
So, I feel the optimal tolerance threshold must be somewhere in between, but I have not settled it yet.

Currently I don't buy a Darwing with a divergence below -0.2
 

IlIlIlIlI

Experienced member
The last Darwin I sold into profit purely because of consistently increasing negative divergence (NWO after 6 months) was already cancellling more than half (55%) of it's return rate in the portfolio.
I hope you sold it before August 17th this year. ;)

This young demo portfolio currently shows a positive divergence over all Darwins ...
1630869801391.png

... where the best (PME, shown divergence on the Darwin -0.27%) shows +1.00% and the worst (THA, as expected, shown divergence -0.13%) has -0.06% in the portfolio data.
The initial divergence of demo portfolios is not really reliable as there was no real trade when you buy or sell a Darwin in a demo portfolio. That should be smoothed more to reality over days and months.
 

IlIlIlIlI

Experienced member
September is finished with a small drawdown in this portfolio.
1633036062216.png


A share of $ 500 will be sold by these Darwins as the DarwinIA allocation of the March contest is running out now.
The gross profit of the last six months shows that 80% will get a payment from the notional allocation.
1633036344935.png


AUX and ZTY will leave the portfolio as there was no other allocation made in the last 6 months (including the September contest). I did not check whether these two Darwins should have received money from the first payment after three months.

Unfortunately the sales ended with a small loss which cuts the investment possibility for the September allocation.
1633037768400.png


For September there was $ 25.43 management fee paid which is deducted daily from the portfolio balance:
1633036702480.png


There appear 4 new Darwins in the portfolio from the September allocation: BOT, CBV, FFV and ULC, and six well known ones.
1633037682652.png


The new allocation will be made with $ 474.00 as there are $ 4,747.65 left for investment (with leverage x3). The one-digit rest is left as cash for upcoming fees.

JTL cannot be bought currently as the transaction is blocked at the moment. So I will try it tomorrow again.
This is the current order list:
1633038172134.png


The public lists linked in my last post above are updated after the September transactions.

I expected some dilution in the first 6 months after the initial portfolio setup as it cannot show the DarwinIA history up to 6 months ago.

Edit:
JTL could be bought now:
1633040604812.png


Retained performance fee from the sales was $ 10.25 ...
1633040703330.png

for these Darwins where shares could be sold with profit:
1633040814831.png
 
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IlIlIlIlI

Experienced member
October ended with a smal DD on equity, which was produced on Friday after the protfolio showed small profit also on Thursday.
1635719844778.png

The allocation from May will be sold for these Darwins:
1635719952458.png

Seven out of ten Darwins made profit over the last 6 months period.
HEO, NWO and WFJ are leaving the portfolio now.

Seven of these Darwins could be sold with profit:
1635720107840.png


The small loss of September could be compensated so the portfolio now shows an overall profit of 16.50 on closed positions.

After selling the ended allocations, the portfolio now has $ 5,054.73 available for new investments. But the new shares will be bought for $ 500 each as there are more than $ 100 to pay for investor fee on open positions which will be charged end of November (after 3 month) to reduce the liability end of November.

Looks like October was very different to the previous months as there are 7 new Darwins in the portfolio now:
BSX, GBI, OMJ, TMF, TYL, YGT, ZCD.

These are the new allocations from the October DarwinIA contest:
1635720875503.png

Which were bought with a share of $ 500 each:
1635721398243.png

The portfolio has 45 Darwins now.

The retained performance fee is $ -32.38:
1635721499836.png
 

IlIlIlIlI

Experienced member
Even if the portfolio has to compensate losers (one is currently exceptionally losing), it looks like it comes to reliable profitability when the first payment date for the two DarwinIA payouts comes closer after 3 months:
1636401385814.png

After 3 months the portfolio has stability on payments.
After 6 months all assets were bought after the related DarwinIA allocation and the portfolio is running fully in line with the rules and DarwinIA payment dates.
 
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IlIlIlIlI

Experienced member
For and after November the portfolio shows profit:
1638309132466.png

As I wrote earlier, I expected some dilution on the results at least for the first 3 months, so after these 3 months I am confident that this strategy will work for a profitable portfolio.

The allocations based on the DarwinIA results of May will be sold now after 6 months:
1638309288822.png

In this 6 months period only 5 traders could show profit.
4 Darwins will leave the portfolio now: BZC, DQB, SKI and TKT.
Sell transactions on SKI and SYO were blocked for an hour because a market was closed.
So their is a delay between selling 8 of 10 Darwins and buying the new allocations for November.
That turned the result of the closed P&L to losses again.
1638313637900.png


These are the new allocations from the DarwinIA results for November 2021:
1638309924029.png

We have 4 new Darwin now in the portfolio: GRI, LEN, HZY and VSR.

As $ 4,617.48 were available for buying new positions, each new position gets a share of $ 461.00. This is the smallest share bought in the last months.
1638313527321.png


These are the top 10 on closed P&L (and retained performance fee of $ 46.98) of the first 3 months:
1638310594719.png

Performance fee for the open positions will be paid in the next hours/day(s), depending on Darwinex's procedure.

$ 79.44 were paid on management fee since the portfolio exists. Unfortunately there is no selction for the last month available.
1638310560878.png
 
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IlIlIlIlI

Experienced member
In December 2021 the portfolio shows the following evolution:
1641132937412.png

The allocations based on the DarwinIA results of June will be sold after 6 months after market opening in 2022. The following screenshot shows the performance of the last 3 months.
1641133053772.png

8 out of 10 of the leaving Darwins show profit, I'm curious if it is enough to compensate the fees of December.

As I had to go down to rank 75 (! - 1.77% DarwinIA profit) to find 10 Darwins to buy for the DarwinIA allocation, which apply to the rules 50% profit and more than 1k investor/DarwinIA income. According to the new layout I had to open each Darwin's page to check these portfolio requirements - obviously too much for Darwinex :ROFLMAO: .

So I interrupt the publication of information about this portfolio for now.
My access to Darwinex is blocked now 🤣 - courious, when it will be freed again.
1641134504749.png
 
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IlIlIlIlI

Experienced member
The following Darwins will leave the portfolio after the changes of December 2021: MUF, PUL, ULL, WGP, YEC.

The following Darwins will be added with the December 2021 allocation: AZG, FNM, USI, TXR.
So the portfolio will contain 45 Darwins in January 2022.

These are the new allocations from the DarwinIA results for December 2021:
1641135519881.png
 

IlIlIlIlI

Experienced member
Besides there were -$142.47 to compensate for deducted fees, there are $5,126.64 from selling the allocations of the June DarwinIA contest. As I always wrote, money is only made by selling an asset.
1641208087789.png


So the allocations for the December contest can be made with $512. This is the first time allocations can be made with more than $500 (start value).

The new Darwins were bought with the following transactions:
1641208452949.png


There are 44 Darwins in the portfolio now.

The following management fees were paid for 2021 and 2022 until now:
1641208772253.png
 

IlIlIlIlI

Experienced member
January was another red month on equity:
1643710906394.png

PHI, THA and ZVQ will leave the portfolio.
DAS and IDT will replace themselves, as they are to sell and to buy with the January share which dan only be calculated after selling the July 21 candidates.
ACY, CAG, DZF, HEO and PKG are new or back again.

These are the sell transactions:
1643715445580.png


After selling the July candidates, there are $ 5,077,68 available to invest. The new investments will be done with $ 507 for each Darwin.
The new Darwins were bought with these transactions:
1643715968059.png


Besides the portfolio shows losses on the current equity, it made more money with the sold candidates from July 21 than deducted by the fees.
The following Darwins brought profit to the portfolio and received performance fee:
1643716276221.png

1643716319228.png


The management fee increased to $24.68 in 2022:
1643716423088.png
 

IlIlIlIlI

Experienced member
February showed profit on equity:
1646085582672.png


BFS, ICX, KGL, OLP, OOS and RAT will leave the portfolio.
PUL, WGP and THA will join the portfolio again, YFC comes in the first time.

The sell transactions brought a loss of about $16:
1646085936584.png


For the new investments there were only $481 available for each candidate:
1646086094325.png


Performance fee to pay raised to $223.13:
1646086235983.png


Management fee:
1646086316251.png


Notes:
Now the portfolio is 6 months old and each share will be hold for 6 months after allocation. The random factor for shorter holdings is now done.

To find the candidates for my criteria I had to go down to rank 40 in DarwinIA.

On the way down from rank 1 to rank 40 I saw a conspicuous number of Darwins with small overall performance of about 20% and also more traders with more than 10 or 20 Darwins where one is now ranked in the top 40.

Maybe this month is exceptional, or Darwinex is silently changing.
 

IlIlIlIlI

Experienced member
I decided a mandatory change that starting from March there will only 5 - instead of 10 - Darwins be added every month. Logically the monthly investment amount will be doubled.

The reason is the hope that the concentration reduces the random factor as only 4 out of 10 Darwins were sold with profit in the last rounds.

March showed profit on equity, but not enough to bring 2022 to profit.
1648805000645.png


BOT, FFV, JHU, PME, UAE and ULC will leave the portfolio.
FIR will join the portfolio as new member.

The sell transactions brought a profit of about $10:
1648806301371.png


For the 5 new investments were only $915 avaiable for each investment:
1648806755663.png


The number of Darwins in the portfolio decreases to 39.

Performance fee to pay raised to $260.21:
1648809284874.png


Management fee increased to $77.14:
1648808704108.png
 
 
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