My own successful FX Intraday Trading Blueprint

F

Forexmospherian

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As many of you know I am a full time FX Intraday trader -8 years now full time and a previous 6 years on a part basis.

Its now been over two years since I joined T2W and during this next two years I plan to go back into semi retirement and drop from 18 -20 trading days a month to maybe just 6 to 10 days. I am in my 60's and had initially looked at retiring in my early 50's - after selling some businesses - but just did not have enough in the pension pot and suffered in 2008/9 from a couple of bad business investments along with having two kids in private school and expensive holiday tastes etc etc. I needed to carry on earning and thankfully I found a great way of doing it.

After 25+ years in the business world I have been used to hard work - the 50 -70 hr working weeks as well as travelling and working some weekends.This last 8 years in comparison as been really a piece of cake - ie only working 25 to 40 hrs a week - and the stress is nothing really compared to owning your own businesses and being responsible to pay your employees salaries every month - whilst worrying about 80 -100k VAT bills and the bank seeing you are only 88% of your project sales budget etc etc.

I am going to update and share my own latest trading "blueprint" -I have mentioned it on various occasions in my journal - but maybe not as in as much detail as I am going to now.

This works for me and gives me regular consistent income - I am not saying it will do the same for you - it won't unless you have at least 3+ years of FX experience behind you - but at least you can see the amount of detail I go into in terms of planning and time & efficiency management

OK - lets start

1. My FX Pairs - Eur-Aud / Eur-Usd / Gbp-Usd / Eur-Jpy / Usd-Cad / Gbp-Aud / Gbp-Jpy. I also watch the Uchf / UJ but only for correlation purposes. I don't trade other instruments - I focus on 6 to 8 pairs and plan to trade only 2 to 4 pairs a day - all depending on the day in question - ie news releases - etc etc.

2. My Method - Intraday and very complex based on a 1 min Linear Regression Chart and using time windows and other trading "edges" not main stream.

3. My daily target - 50 pips initially based on a average 3 lots per pip. I don't stop at 50 pips - but because I scalp and also leave part stakes on - I might end up with 170 pips in a day - but still not earned my daily money target. My daily target is split into 3 part sessions - yes that detailed - some days It's easy and its achieved in under 90 mins - other days I can be trading 4 hrs and still not made 50 pips net.

4. Working Hours - From 6 00 am to normally 5 00 pm - but split into 3 main sessions of less than 2 hrs - all depending on movements and trading volumes. Actual time spent trading is normally under 3 to 4 hrs a day - even though I might be covering a 10 -12 hr window. I am my own boss - and so can be totally flexible in my trading window - and so can stop completely after 2 hrs - if I want to

5. Number of trades - Between 10 and 20 trades a day - split over 2 to 4 pairs normally. Trades can last from 2 mins to 2+ weeks and from a minimum 3 pips to 300+ pips. All entries have soft stops of between 3 and 7 pips - 5 pips average.

6. Win ratios - Based on lots of 100 intraday trades - from a low 62% to a high 87% - with a mean norm around 70 -72% - ie every 100 trades - I expect anything from 13 to 38 losses on every 100 trades - and most importantly am aware - I can have 7 bad consecutive losses in a row ( very rare ). I am also aware I do have runs of 20 to 30 consecutive winning trades every now and again. After 3 losses in a row - i stop for 30 -60 mins and the start again.

7. Trading Opportunities - I can have up to 6 trades per hr per pair - but normally only take 1 to 3 trades per hr per pair - based on key times and 2 time windows. I would be overtrading if I take over 50 intraday trades a day. Under 10 is normally not enough - over 25 means I am on a great run - or a really bad run and not made my daily target.

8 Risk to Reward ratio. Anything from 1 to 1 min to many making over 6 and even some days a 50 pip scalp on the EA or GA can be a RR of 9+.

9. Stake size - from 0.2 to 0 5% of capital based on 5/7 pip stop size. Maximum stakes nowadays - 8 lots - minimum 1 lot per pip of part stakes.

10.Fluidity and flexibility is key along with focus and concentration on entries. Nothing is 100% certain - but its all down to probabilities and you as a trader knowing your own strengths and weaknesses.

I am no gambler - I got the economics degree and trained as an accountant over 35 yrs ago- but it was my business experience that has helped them most.

Don't trust the Financial Industry - really don't trust anyone - except yourself and if you have not got the confidence in yourself to make it - stop now .

Hope that may help some FX traders on their journey

Good Trading


F
 
This post may represent "some" progress, however, that will largely depend on how things are presented as the thread moves forward.
 
counter_violent said:
This post may represent "some" progress, however, that will largely depend on how things are presented as the thread moves forward.
Click to expand...

'Some progress', based on what measurement?
Was there a new protocol issued to F on what he says?
May and largely based on the future is kind of nothing really.
 
Forexmospherian said:
As many of you know I am a full time FX Intraday trader -8 years now full time and a previous 6 years on a part basis.

Its now been over two years since I joined T2W and during this next two years I plan to go back into semi retirement and drop from 18 -20 trading days a month to maybe just 6 to 10 days. I am in my 60's and had initially looked at retiring in my early 50's - after selling some businesses - but just did not have enough in the pension pot and suffered in 2008/9 from a couple of bad business investments along with having two kids in private school and expensive holiday tastes etc etc. I needed to carry on earning and thankfully I found a great way of doing it.

After 25+ years in the business world I have been used to hard work - the 50 -70 hr working weeks as well as travelling and working some weekends.This last 8 years in comparison as been really a piece of cake - ie only working 25 to 40 hrs a week - and the stress is nothing really compared to owning your own businesses and being responsible to pay your employees salaries every month - whilst worrying about 80 -100k VAT bills and the bank seeing you are only 88% of your project sales budget etc etc.

I am going to update and share my own latest trading "blueprint" -I have mentioned it on various occasions in my journal - but maybe not as in as much detail as I am going to now.

This works for me and gives me regular consistent income - I am not saying it will do the same for you - it won't unless you have at least 3+ years of FX experience behind you - but at least you can see the amount of detail I go into in terms of planning and time & efficiency management

OK - lets start

1. My FX Pairs - Eur-Aud / Eur-Usd / Gbp-Usd / Eur-Jpy / Usd-Cad / Gbp-Aud / Gbp-Jpy. I also watch the Uchf / UJ but only for correlation purposes. I don't trade other instruments - I focus on 6 to 8 pairs and plan to trade only 2 to 4 pairs a day - all depending on the day in question - ie news releases - etc etc.

2. My Method - Intraday and very complex based on a 1 min Linear Regression Chart and using time windows and other trading "edges" not main stream.

3. My daily target - 50 pips initially based on a average 3 lots per pip. I don't stop at 50 pips - but because I scalp and also leave part stakes on - I might end up with 170 pips in a day - but still not earned my daily money target. My daily target is split into 3 part sessions - yes that detailed - some days It's easy and its achieved in under 90 mins - other days I can be trading 4 hrs and still not made 50 pips net.

4. Working Hours - From 6 00 am to normally 5 00 pm - but split into 3 main sessions of less than 2 hrs - all depending on movements and trading volumes. Actual time spent trading is normally under 3 to 4 hrs a day - even though I might be covering a 10 -12 hr window. I am my own boss - and so can be totally flexible in my trading window - and so can stop completely after 2 hrs - if I want to

5. Number of trades - Between 10 and 20 trades a day - split over 2 to 4 pairs normally. Trades can last from 2 mins to 2+ weeks and from a minimum 3 pips to 300+ pips. All entries have soft stops of between 3 and 7 pips - 5 pips average.

6. Win ratios - Based on lots of 100 intraday trades - from a low 62% to a high 87% - with a mean norm around 70 -72% - ie every 100 trades - I expect anything from 13 to 38 losses on every 100 trades - and most importantly am aware - I can have 7 bad consecutive losses in a row ( very rare ). I am also aware I do have runs of 20 to 30 consecutive winning trades every now and again. After 3 losses in a row - i stop for 30 -60 mins and the start again.

7. Trading Opportunities - I can have up to 6 trades per hr per pair - but normally only take 1 to 3 trades per hr per pair - based on key times and 2 time windows. I would be overtrading if I take over 50 intraday trades a day. Under 10 is normally not enough - over 25 means I am on a great run - or a really bad run and not made my daily target.

8 Risk to Reward ratio. Anything from 1 to 1 min to many making over 6 and even some days a 50 pip scalp on the EA or GA can be a RR of 9+.

9. Stake size - from 0.2 to 0 5% of capital based on 5/7 pip stop size. Maximum stakes nowadays - 8 lots - minimum 1 lot per pip of part stakes.

10.Fluidity and flexibility is key along with focus and concentration on entries. Nothing is 100% certain - but its all down to probabilities and you as a trader knowing your own strengths and weaknesses.

I am no gambler - I got the economics degree and trained as an accountant over 35 yrs ago- but it was my business experience that has helped them most.

Don't trust the Financial Industry - really don't trust anyone - except yourself and if you have not got the confidence in yourself to make it - stop now .

Hope that may help some FX traders on their journey

Good Trading


F
Click to expand...

Good luck on another successful thread.
It always a pleasure to read your posts. There have been so many nuggets of useful information that I gleaned from your many posts and will be looking out for more.
Keep up the good work.
 
Hi F,

I do not (yet) want to dig in your >100 pages thread, and you've probably noted it there, but I was wondering, can you tell us something about your trading journey? I.e. How did you get involved in financial markets? Are you really "only" trading for 8 years and consistently profitable?

Another question, your business background being mainly in the accountancy profession (if I understand you correctly), you haven't really got a background in statistics have you?

All the best,

Koen
 
Belligerent_Drunk said:
Hi F,

I do not (yet) want to dig in your >100 pages thread, and you've probably noted it there, but I was wondering, can you tell us something about your trading journey? I.e. How did you get involved in financial markets? Are you really "only" trading for 8 years and consistently profitable?

Another question, your business background being mainly in the accountancy profession (if I understand you correctly), you haven't really got a background in statistics have you?

All the best,

Koen
Click to expand...

Hi koen

Interesting question - so will respond on that.

First of all - total trading years over 13 yrs - but only 8 yrs full time - and previous 5+ years was part time - mainly 2 or 3 days a week - has I was still involved on other business interests.

I found first 2 yrs difficult part time - was "yo-yo"ing- but then after year 3 part time it started to make more sense - ie the whole Currency trading industry is manipulated and really its just a big money game that needs to be understood.

Traditional TA and Fundamentals basically a waste of time for intra day trading - I knew that if i was going to go full time - I needed to be involved intraday rather than just trying to make good monies off say 10 - 15 trades a month.

I also realised after a few years the commercial / industry FX trading was totally different to "retail FX traders" and so all the stuff from the industry I started to bin - ie COT reports - FX analysts etc etc and then looked upon it as a "rubik cube" and there was a way to solve the puzzle.

With regards to Stats - yes it was 18 months of my Economics degree - so had delved into stats many years ago and along with my accountancy ( maths ) training - that also helped on finding the best ways on money management - an important part of my method etc

I had to learn how to "lose" and to understand that I would never be 100% correct - but also understand that you don't have to be even 75% correct - its all down to RR's and knowing instantly when you might be wrong - and also knowing when all the probabilities are in your favour - even if only for 30 or 60 minutes.

Before I went full time - i was then consistent - ie not having losing weeks and months and generally improving my scalping on a monthly basis.

After going full time - within 3 months I thought I had found my own "holy grail" - but after compounding and growing my account quickly - i was bought back down to earth when I had a really bad few days and suffered 7 consecutive losses in a row on my largest lot size of approx 22 lots.

I could handle losses of $500 or $1000 - but - not $5 or 10 k - I then realised - I could not hack big money - especially using my own capital.

At that time and in my first year of full time trading ( every day ) I had honestly though I could earn easily $50k plus a month - and had several months over $30k

All that went out the window - and it took me six months to even just trade back on 5 lots a pip - I lost my nerve and since then never tried again with a $250k plus capital account.

After year 3 full time - I was in my grove - remember - this is now 8 yrs of trading FX counting the 5+ years part time

I had easily done my 10,000 hrs watching live charts - mainly on the EU and GU - I had by then taken over 10k+ scalps and having anything from 1 to 5 losing trades a day did not faze me.

Over the last 3 years I have improved - but understand I am not as quick or as sharp as 10 yrs ago - so now I trade at a more leisurely pace - but still make good returns.

I have had the advantage of starting late with sufficient capital and time on my hands to solve the "puzzle"

Trading is not easy - its very frustrating and complex - but its also very rewarding and satisifying when all goes to plan.

Hope that helps and good luck on your journey
 
Oscar Reed said:
What next??????????????????????
Click to expand...


Cold Turkey - ie try and wean my self off full time down to just 8 -10 days a month - and then look AT a proper retirement - although I might find that difficult plus the fact if I am taking more holidays etc - then going to need to the money to do that as well ;-))
 
Hi F,

Thank you for your reply! Gives me a bit more background. The thread of sun11 is on my "soon to be read" list. Anyway as always, a bit more questions!

A language barrier where I can't follow you completely: "I also realised after a few years the commercial / industry FX trading was totally different to "retail FX traders" and so all the stuff from the industry I started to bin - ie COT reports - FX analysts etc etc and then looked upon it as a "rubik cube" and there was a way to solve the puzzle."

By started to bin, do you mean that you delved into it? Or that you disposed it into the trash can?

I've only read a few pages of the sun11 thread and your other thread, however, as far I understand you give a set up based on linear regression coefficients. I suspect that you do not consider this to be a traditional TA method?

Can you describe in a bit more detail how you shifted from (another assumption) traditional TA and fundamentals towards your own trading style? And do you consider your trading style a "blend" of inputs from other traders, or rather your own distilled and ripened "single malt" trading style?

Lastly (for now), since you ventured out to help other traders, do you think trading is a skill that can be taught?

Kind regards,

Koen
 
Belligerent_Drunk said:
Hi F,

Thank you for your reply! Gives me a bit more background. The thread of sun11 is on my "soon to be read" list. Anyway as always, a bit more questions!

A language barrier where I can't follow you completely: "I also realised after a few years the commercial / industry FX trading was totally different to "retail FX traders" and so all the stuff from the industry I started to bin - ie COT reports - FX analysts etc etc and then looked upon it as a "rubik cube" and there was a way to solve the puzzle."

By started to bin, do you mean that you delved into it? Or that you disposed it into the trash can?

I've only read a few pages of the sun11 thread and your other thread, however, as far I understand you give a set up based on linear regression coefficients. I suspect that you do not consider this to be a traditional TA method?

Can you describe in a bit more detail how you shifted from (another assumption) traditional TA and fundamentals towards your own trading style? And do you consider your trading style a "blend" of inputs from other traders, or rather your own distilled and ripened "single malt" trading style?

Lastly (for now), since you ventured out to help other traders, do you think trading is a skill that can be taught?

Kind regards,

Koen
Click to expand...

Hi Koen

I will briefly reply and then maybe go into more detail on your points later on today.

In my early years - I believed things like the COT report and also traditional TA - using 4 hr and daily charts along with MACD 's and moving averages - simply because I heard thats what the trade or banks did.

Well if that was correct - all I would say - is they are missing out on so many better ways to trade - ways that have become more apparent from the Internet age and computer trading etc.

I had also read a report by an American University - who carried on over 1000 simulated trades using all types of indicators - and basically they all gave results of between 40 and 60% success rate - but no consistency - more 50/50 than having any edge.

I then delved into leading indicators - ie indicators not lagging - that could give you clues in advance of moves - ie divergence on oscillators and linear regression - far superior to normal MA's

Its not good just trading like everyone else - no wonder so many fail - where is their "edge" and of course market makers and liquidity providers know all the tricks and so can mislead and set up false sentiment to catch traditional TA traders out - they just get stopped out or end up realising they have just been caught out at a change of a trend

Can traders be taught a trading skill and other traders can be successful ?

Short answer - yes - but how long it takes is another question and if the traders learning are not prepared to understand they will have losses and they need to control their emotions and discipline etc - then not every learning trader will end up successful

It does take far longer than all beginner trader think - forget under 6 or 12 months - look at 3 to 5 years on a part time basis - there is just so much to learn - and many of the things you learn only happen every few months or so.

Hope that covers the main part - but will look at adding to this later on

Regards


F
 
Forexmospherian said:
Hi Koen

I will briefly reply and then maybe go into more detail on your points later on today.

In my early years - I believed things like the COT report and also traditional TA - using 4 hr and daily charts along with MACD 's and moving averages - simply because I heard thats what the trade or banks did.

Well if that was correct - all I would say - is they are missing out on so many better ways to trade - ways that have become more apparent from the Internet age and computer trading etc.

I had also read a report by an American University - who carried on over 1000 simulated trades using all types of indicators - and basically they all gave results of between 40 and 60% success rate - but no consistency - more 50/50 than having any edge.

I then delved into leading indicators - ie indicators not lagging - that could give you clues in advance of moves - ie divergence on oscillators and linear regression - far superior to normal MA's

Its not good just trading like everyone else - no wonder so many fail - where is their "edge" and of course market makers and liquidity providers know all the tricks and so can mislead and set up false sentiment to catch traditional TA traders out - they just get stopped out or end up realising they have just been caught out at a change of a trend

Can traders be taught a trading skill and other traders can be successful ?

Short answer - yes - but how long it takes is another question and if the traders learning are not prepared to understand they will have losses and they need to control their emotions and discipline etc - then not every learning trader will end up successful

It does take far longer than all beginner trader think - forget under 6 or 12 months - look at 3 to 5 years on a part time basis - there is just so much to learn - and many of the things you learn only happen every few months or so.

Hope that covers the main part - but will look at adding to this later on

Regards


F
Click to expand...

Hi F,

Interesting post! I started playing around with the linear regression indicators (used the same set-up followed by Sun11 in the start of her journal). I am planning to read more of your threads (including the >1000 pages one). You're right that there is a lot to learn!

However, to keep this most more on thread: some more questions! (yes, I've got plenty of them...)

Regarding your style of money management, you trade between 0,50% and 1,00% of your capital each trade. However, I understand you trade anything from 1 to 2x lots each time, with a stop of ~5 pips. Do you pyramid your trades if they are going your way? Have you got any recommended books/articles on MM?

Considering you avoid "mainstream" TA, do you completely ignore fundamentals? And how do you handle news events, like yesterdays FED announcement? For me, they seem almost to volatile to scalp (maybe thats because im not an experienced scalper :LOL:). Do you scalp them, or do you trade around them? Waiting for the dust to be settled..

Just out of curiosity, the "holy grail" you had found after trading full time for three months. What was it, and did it resemble anything you're using right now? And what really drew you into forex? Why not options/futures/stocks?


Well that's it for now, I guess!

Kind regards,

Koen
 
Hope to come back to you Koen later on today sometime and will answer your questions with some detail etc


Regards

F
 
Belligerent_Drunk said:
Hi F,

Interesting post! I started playing around with the linear regression indicators (used the same set-up followed by Sun11 in the start of her journal). I am planning to read more of your threads (including the >1000 pages one). You're right that there is a lot to learn!

However, to keep this most more on thread: some more questions! (yes, I've got plenty of them...)

Regarding your style of money management, you trade between 0,50% and 1,00% of your capital each trade. However, I understand you trade anything from 1 to 2x lots each time, with a stop of ~5 pips. Do you pyramid your trades if they are going your way? Have you got any recommended books/articles on MM?

Considering you avoid "mainstream" TA, do you completely ignore fundamentals? And how do you handle news events, like yesterdays FED announcement? For me, they seem almost to volatile to scalp (maybe thats because im not an experienced scalper :LOL:). Do you scalp them, or do you trade around them? Waiting for the dust to be settled..

Just out of curiosity, the "holy grail" you had found after trading full time for three months. What was it, and did it resemble anything you're using right now? And what really drew you into forex? Why not options/futures/stocks?


Well that's it for now, I guess!

Kind regards,

Koen
Click to expand...


Hi Koen

Back in 2008 /9 when I was on a lot larger account I compounded up to 20 + lots per pip and of course - i bottled it when I had a few bad days and big losses wiping out most of my gains

Nowadays - last 3 years - I rarely trade over 10 lots a pip

Normally during the week and if above target I will trade the odd 8 lots and even 5 lots - but my bread and butter intraday trades are all under 3 lots per pip

The fact that its less than 0 5 % of the account is because I use a tight stop and I would not be comfortable on 2% plus

On any account under $10k - yes 2% stake size no problem - even on 5 pip stops - simply because the risk in money terms is less or lower - so not so much pressure etc

Yes I do PPND as we call it - adding scalps when its going well and also partial stakes or reducing stake sizes on pullbacks when I might scalp against my main longer trade. Its another skill etc - I am not brilliant at it - but I generally do well every day from partial stakes with the stops already in profit - taking alot of the stress and anxiety away

I did have some articles on advance money management for retail traders - this was about 4 years ago on another computer and I did save it somewhere . It was not from anyone main stream or famous - just a maths guy who had worked out some edges etc to assist the normal money management methods - I will see if I can find it - as would be interesting reading again

Yes - I do ignore normal TA and FA for intraday - the devil is in the detail - price and my charts on price structure for the session i trade

Most news event I trade after the event - within 3 to 9 mins of releases - not every one but at least 70% of those on the main pairs I cover

Holy Grail - there is not really one holy grail - there's many and its you and your successful method that you are happy with and you are in sync with

With me - I had a great run using exactly the same method I used today for many months when the market was kind and I was on a continual high and performing well - simply because my results were that good

When the bubble burst - I came back down to reality - you will have losses - dont back the farm on trades and of course now many years later - I am a better trader with more experience


Forex trading - got into it when a company called Next 24 hrs based in New York doubled my account in under 3 months . From then on wanted to learn how to trade FX

I have remained focused on only FX - never wanted to go into other products / instruments after spending so many years learning it

Hope that helps again


Regards

F
 
Last edited:
Forexmospherian

Great job and thanks for sharing a bit of your knowledge.

Cheers
Merka
 
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