Are you a successful intraday trader?

[Grey1]

Example:
1.If there is a bad news in financial and tech that constitute combined ~35% of S&P and no other prominent good news..then expect the market to go down


2. If Yesterday was a uptrend rally b/4 the news, then expect immediate downtrend caused by long liquidation longs be stopped...
3. Generally the market may not go above any significant LEVEL from open.
4. So if for example you sell ( and filled) at the above next significant Level with say 2~4 points cover..., it is highly probable your trade will be in in the money.
5. Remember if it was down-trend yesterday before the news, then lots of shorts could take profit off the table and some bagain hunters could try to buy at lower prices, then expect the market to cross ABOVE at most 2 LEVELS from start before going down( Short covering Rally)
6. Estimate the market range and know when to take profit and/or act the opposite way

7. Try and watch the early action for at least 15~30mins to see whats up and check out internals of the market..which sectors are leading up/down...

8. Look at the dollar/energy moves. "Traders are not happy buying US equities cos they believe the value of portfolio is going south because of weak $. Yet some are bagain hunting it betting the $ will eventually go up. Once $ tries to firm up..It could triger a rally".

9. Energy and food are subsumed by week $...so energy prices are playing weak $. UNLESS AND UNTIL Energy prices are lower WILL continue to SEE A DELIBRATELY WEAK $ and a CHOPPY MARKET

10. Look at the BIG picture. US economy is not in any crisis. It is only because of China..and the like. US wants China to float the yuan so as to curtail trade advanatges. China says NO.In order to force this..USA $ is being devalued to make USA exports cheap to mostly European consumers. Energy and food prices are denominated in $ so it is becoming more expensive in China. Now Inflation is catching up with China. The last strall will be if Euro is devalued..then CHINA must have no reason than to give in.

point 1 ) If the bad news is in the price then you ignore the bad news.. Bad news does not necessarily defines the market direction

Point 2) Again your second statement is not correct.. It depends on the strength of story and how many other sectors are affected by the story ..



grey1

 

[Grey1]

Not correct.

grey1

This is Monday /Tuesday P/L using a mechanical algorithms.

grey

 

[teezeike]

================================================

GEE --- if you hadnt put them up there as YOUR words, i would have thought they came right from my post on another thread, ALTHOUGH they were changed ever so slightly !

BUT OF COURSE, you wouldnt do that, because so many people dissagree with me !

DAMN THESE ECHOES !

MP

Hi Mate,

Remember these points I made in my last input.

The unwinding of the dollar is in motion right now..and commodities are going down ( at least temporaly) and you can see the aggressive rally today with even bad news here and there!! Investors MUST jump into equities once $ firms up as they believe MOST equities are near bottom.

I expect the $ could firm until S&P get to say 1430~1460. If EVER FOMC failed to cut rates at the next meeting on 29th April, you could see a very aggressive rally...

For now it now better to buy any DIP and we move on.

Thanks,

Ted


8. Look at the dollar/energy moves. "Traders are not happy buying US equities cos they believe the value of portfolio is going south because of weak $. Yet some are bagain hunting it betting the $ will eventually go up. Once $ tries to firm up..It could triger a rally".

9. Energy and food are subsumed by week $...so energy prices are playing weak $. UNLESS AND UNTIL Energy prices are lower WILL continue to SEE A DELIBRATELY WEAK $ and a CHOPPY MARKET

 

[teezeike]

====================================

correct -- "not correct !"

while not a friend of systems or EA robots, one must admit that they can do an admirable job in trending markets although many suffer in "ranging" markets, but then so do a lot of manual traders unless they find s+r and just trade that !

its rare that a "system" has NO good in it, as even something as simple as MA x-overs WILL work (they tend to be late unless modified to the point where they become "whippy", which then can be "filtered" - -- - - - - and on and on --- theyre usable and theyre modifieable to be used in different situations, but then YOU have to determine WHAT the situation is -- slow trending, fast trending, ranging, whippy, etc !

but money CAN be made !

mp

Hi Mate,

If those systems are good..why do they work in a trending market and fail in a ranging market? Alright you have the ones for a trending market and some others for a ranging market. HOW DO YOU DETERMINE TRENDING/RANGING MARKET with these tools? If I cannot determine them by these tools...only by knowing the market..then of what use are they?

If I know the market is going to trend today..I will buy any pullback. If I know that the market is going to range..I will determine the ange and just trade them. I dont need those lines to tell me these.

MARKET CANNOT WORK ACCODING TO THOSE LINES..RATHER THOSE LINES ARE DETERMINED BY MARKET ACTION!

 

[teezeike]

Im sorry you feel that way massimo...perhaps your loss control is the problem...I have been trading both intraday, swing, and wealth managment styles since 1996. I have some advice for given your issues...because i think i know what the problem is. If a nail is sticking out...you need a hammer, if your paper is torn you need tape, etc...you must identify market conditions and use correct strategy for the market. If there is something i have learned is that no one strategy works in all markets...an many times as soon as you adjust it changes...my advice is learn to anticipate and identify changing markets and improve your tool box. If you would like to know more, write back.:smart:

Good point. Before any strategy..market intelligence comes first. Just like to know the weaknesses of the market and exploiting that with the proper tools ?

Market trends up/down and brackets and then continue/reverse trending.

 

[mp6140]

Hi Mate,

If those systems are good..why do they work in a trending market and fail in a ranging market? Alright you have the ones for a trending market and some others for a ranging market. HOW DO YOU DETERMINE TRENDING/RANGING MARKET with these tools? If I cannot determine them by these tools...only by knowing the market..then of what use are they?

first, are we speaking of the LRC's ????? their ONLY job is to show support and resistance, they do NOT tell you if the flight will be a pleasant one or a bit rocky ---- if you refer to auto trading the problem is that it has NOT reached the artificial intelligence point of being able to read what kind of market youre in all by itself --- heck, by definition we humans have to wait a bit to SEE what kind of market it is, and BY THE NATURE OF HOW THEY WORK, AE's cannot be counted on to handle this as does a manual trader, therefore they are not much use, are they ?

BUT, while i always prefer education and experience over a newb using an AE, i have to admit that newbs "can" make money using AE's --- its not my suggested method, but it beats them running around throwing darts at prices and hopeing they win ! Dont get me wrong --- im a manual trader and no fan of EA's, but they do have a place in this market (which to me is the basement, but so be it !)

If I know the market is going to trend today..I will buy any pullback. If I know that the market is going to range..I will determine the ange and just trade them. I dont need those lines to tell me these.


IF YOUVE GOT A TOOL TO TELL YOU WHAT KIND OF MARKET you are going to have in the future, weve got A PARTNERSHIP READY TO GO !!!! for the ability to prophesize the markets, i would pay a decent amount --- if you have the HOLY GRAIL of telling me the future, how much do you want for a clone ?

Now, while YOU may not need them to see the range, there is simply no better indicator that the LRC showing top and bottom and the s+r overlays telling you where to put in and take out your money ---- YOU may not need it, but plenty of others do !


MARKET CANNOT WORK ACCODING TO THOSE LINES..RATHER THOSE LINES ARE DETERMINED BY MARKET ACTION!

understand that i grow tired, after years in the business, of having people tell me how the market works, when they havent a clue !

THE MARKET IS BASED ON SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE AND TREND AND OBEYS ITS RULES WONDERFULLY, which is why (except for an error in selling an open position) it allows me 100% PERFECTLY closed trades over a two month period ! To disagree, you better have an awful lot to back you up !

the "lines" are nothing more than previous and historical support and resistance areas, which is why THEY DO WORK !

correct in its way is your statement that it is "market action" that creates the lines, but "market action" continually looks at these line, and if you bothered to draw them, YOU WOULD BE AGHAST AT WHAT THE PRICES DO WHEN THE LINES ARE HIT === so while what you say is correct, the lines are HONORED by market action unless there is a predetermined reason for the LRC lines to be broken ---- and one can get a clue by looking forward in time and using the weekly and monthly charts --- they will give you one heck of a good idea of where things are going. !

mp

 

[mp6140]

Good point. Before any strategy..market intelligence comes first. Just like to know the weaknesses of the market and exploiting that with the proper tools ?

Market trends up/down and brackets and then continue/reverse trending.

LOL --- try the LRC's or the Demark or simple trend lines --- they give a thousand clues !

and btw, what you have written above happens (in differeing strengths) EVERYDAY, and most of it at SPECIFIC TIMES OF DAY, which you can easily watch ! I do wonder what you mean exactly by "market weaknesses", as i simply dont understand that at all !its TRENDS you should watch, not a momentary price move !

once a trend forms, you play the trend till you reach the reversal times in the market, where you can play the retrace, and ITS retrace both very nicely and on any timeframe you so wish --- its really a pretty simple game, as long as you know when to be long, when to be short !


mp

 

[teezeike]

mp

Hi MP,

There must be some misunderstanding. WHat I call the lines are say SMA/RSI..kind of lines. Support and Resistance lines must be used to get in and out of trade.

In most daily ranging markets, estimation of the top and bottom using my method proved to be nearly 90% accurate with proper stop loss. Usually determined from 2min~20min into the market action.

With good market knowledge..it seems simple to see. I trade only S&P e-mini and usually win consistently with confidence.

 

[mp6140]

Hi MP,

There must be some misunderstanding. WHat I call the lines are say SMA/RSI..kind of lines. Support and Resistance lines must be used to get in and out of trade.

In most daily ranging markets, estimation of the top and bottom using my method proved to be nearly 90% accurate with proper stop loss. Usually determined from 2min~20min into the market action.

With good market knowledge..it seems simple to see. I trade only S&P e-mini and usually win consistently with confidence.

===================================================================

obviously miscommunication runs rampant here --- using s+r lines is the overwhelming constant in my trading although i use "retraces" from these points as my entries for the most part, finding ma xovers to be a tad "slow" for my needs !

if i get proper signals on any timeframe and knowing which way the trend moves, im gonna come in at my normal 100% trade percentage, but not always when i predict, but not using any sl's allows me to hold till the cows come home !

mp

 

[teezeike]

===================================================================

obviously miscommunication runs rampant here --- using s+r lines is the overwhelming constant in my trading although i use "retraces" from these points as my entries for the most part, finding ma xovers to be a tad "slow" for my needs !

if i get proper signals on any timeframe and knowing which way the trend moves, im gonna come in at my normal 100% trade percentage, but not always when i predict, but not using any sl's allows me to hold till the cows come home !

mp

Hi Mp,

Sure but one thing though: Estimation is closer to forecasting than prediction!

 

[teezeike]

LOL --- try the LRC's or the Demark or simple trend lines --- they give a thousand clues !

and btw, what you have written above happens (in differeing strengths) EVERYDAY, and most of it at SPECIFIC TIMES OF DAY, which you can easily watch ! I do wonder what you mean exactly by "market weaknesses", as i simply dont understand that at all !its TRENDS you should watch, not a momentary price move !

once a trend forms, you play the trend till you reach the reversal times in the market, where you can play the retrace, and ITS retrace both very nicely and on any timeframe you so wish --- its really a pretty simple game, as long as you know when to be long, when to be short !


mp

Hi MP,

Market weakness could be balance or imbalance. If market is out of balance...look for a trend( but you need to wait to know the direction). If the market is in balance...then look for a range day. ALMOST CAST IN GOLD!

 

[mp6140]

Hi Mp,

Sure but one thing though: Estimation is closer to forecasting than prediction!

LOL -- not getting into semantics on this one !

mp

 

[Grey1]

Hi Mate,

If those systems are good..why do they work in a trending market and fail in a ranging market? Alright you have the ones for a trending market and some others for a ranging market. HOW DO YOU DETERMINE TRENDING/RANGING MARKET with these tools? If I cannot determine them by these tools...only by knowing the market..then of what use are they?

If I know the market is going to trend today..I will buy any pullback. If I know that the market is going to range..I will determine the ange and just trade them. I dont need those lines to tell me these.

MARKET CANNOT WORK ACCODING TO THOSE LINES..RATHER THOSE LINES ARE DETERMINED BY MARKET ACTION!

The whole point in designing a mechanical code is to be able to identify when the market is oscillating and when it is trending,, You don't tell the code TRADE the TREND or TRADE the oscillation ,, Code must be able to infer enough conclusion from the data series to identify in what mood the market is .THIS IS THE CHALLENGE

To be quite honest this is not very difficult .

grey1

 

[mp6140]

The whole point in designing a mechanical code is to be able to identify when the market is oscillating and when it is trending,, You don't tell the code TRADE the TREND or TRADE the oscillation ,, Code must be able to infer enough conclusion from the data series to identify in what mood the market is .THIS IS THE CHALLENGE

To be quite honest this is not very difficult .

grey1

=============================================

then hie thee to Forex Factory or Forex-TSD and ask WHY they cant make a decent code that will do both ?

even there, in the land of codeing and automated trading, it doesnt happen !

i try NOT to express opinions --- anyone can do that ---- what i say comes from years of trying to find an "easy way" that will allow me more time and flexibility to my life and NO ONE, once the EA is put to the test in the real world, has come up with anything that comes close to what a manual trader, worthy of the name and not someone who decided to wear the hat, can do !

someday, like "big blue" winning at chess, someday there will be a computer to do it, but it aint right now !

oh yeah, forgot ---- i once had a contest with those at forex tsd --- they didnt stand a chance !

not to forget, if one comes up with a successful EA on MT4, the russians will come up with how to nullify it, since MT4 reports "home" like the good russian spy it is !

mp

 

[Grey1]

=============================================

then hie thee to Forex Factory or Forex-TSD and ask WHY they cant make a decent code that will do both ?

even there, in the land of codeing and automated trading, it doesnt happen !

i try NOT to express opinions --- anyone can do that ---- what i say comes from years of trying to find an "easy way" that will allow me more time and flexibility to my life and NO ONE, once the EA is put to the test in the real world, has come up with anything that comes close to what a manual trader, worthy of the name and not someone who decided to wear the hat, can do !

someday, like "big blue" winning at chess, someday there will be a computer to do it, but it aint right now !

oh yeah, forgot ---- i once had a contest with those at forex tsd --- they didnt stand a chance !

not to forget, if one comes up with a successful EA on MT4, the russians will come up with how to nullify it, since MT4 reports "home" like the good russian spy it is !

mp

I don't think you are aware of existence of such full automated platforms . Most institutions runs such codes intra days and by 2020 they reckon all institution will automate their intra day activities. I suggest you do a bit of more research on this subject . If you have not seen it does not mean it aint there..

A Simple U TUBE search should give you some idea . If you had a good mate who worked @ execution level of BAS ( Bank of America securities ) he probably could show you Dr Almgren's program trade who was responsible for 210 million $ profit last year with a very small drawdown

Not bad hey



grey1

 

[mp6140]

I don't think you are aware of existence of such full automated platforms . Most institutions runs such codes intra days and by 2020 they reckon all institution will automate their intra day activities. I suggest you do a bit of more research on this subject . If you have not seen it does not mean it aint there..

A Simple U TUBE search should give you some idea . If you had a good mate who worked @ execution level of BAS ( Bank of America securities ) he probably could show you Dr Almgren's program trade who was responsible for 210 million $ profit last year with a very small drawdown

Not bad hey
grey1

u quote "2020" and i refer you to what i said about "someday" --- i guess 2020 could certainly be listed as someday.

i have a few good friends in the business, have been to many a trading room and being pretty "senior" myself tend to know some "senior" people also, and while computer algorithms grow better and better, you miss how much BAS made on MANUAL TRADING --- more than the computer by golly !

i never said "never" --- just that the time is not fully here yet, and will take at least a few more days to come to pass !

Intraday trading is probably the easiest for a computer to work with, as even I have dynamic support and resistance areas that are spot on for trading the 1 - 15 minute, and also handle the longer timeframes with aplomb --- my brokers summary shows maximal drawdowns in the low 5% area, which includes flips and some 3 day holds (not because i WANTED to hold for 3 days, but that was what the program read and by gosh, i wasnt getting out of there till it came true or i went broke, whichever came first.)

Presently, one of my programs shows me that i could place a trade for 300 pips below the present price, whose trend is up at the moment, but HOW LONG WOULD I BE WAITING FOR IT TO COME HOME --- i FULLY trust the support area it gives me, but im NOT the type of trader to simply wait a year for the cows to come home, which BAS most probably IS !

Being as how trading is so much trend and s+r, there is no reason artificial intelligence cannot be applied to this situation, although one must always be aware that the "geeks" tend to see "more" than just the promise down the road --- they begin to believe they are there already !

DOWN THE ROAD INDEED, and of "some" assistance in the present (what i have works, "up to a point", but still requires a lot more time before i can just press the button and call the McGiver sisters over for the day !)

Awful lot of people working on it, but alas, perfection is a hard point to reach !

mp

 

[teezeike]

The whole point in designing a mechanical code is to be able to identify when the market is oscillating and when it is trending,, You don't tell the code TRADE the TREND or TRADE the oscillation ,, Code must be able to infer enough conclusion from the data series to identify in what mood the market is .THIS IS THE CHALLENGE

To be quite honest this is not very difficult .

grey1

Hi Mate,

Coming from computational background, I need to stress these pomits:

1. Algorithm is a "finite" sequence of instuctions executable by an electronic device. Finite in this context means all known variables.
2. Algorithmic trdaing is to present sequence of logical trading statements based on fundamental and technical indicators...news and the like. Most of them use data mining techniques ..the so-called Business Intelligence Modelling.
3. It is quite "DIFFICULT" to implement emotional based schema that appear 'infinite" in any mechanical system. That is why they call that TRDAING WITHOUT EMOTION
4. Most succesful trades are based on emotion or sentiment ( that is infintely VAST amount of DATA). Example.." A trend is your friend" is emotional..never mechanical.
5. Market knowledge armed with correct PIVOT levels and good risk management is always the best out of this business

 

[mp6140]

Hi Mate,

Coming from computational background, I need to stress these pomits:

1. Algorithm is a "finite" sequence of instuctions executable by an electronic device. Finite in this context means all known variables.

fine with me --- just that the programmers havent reached the "finite" yet !

2. Algorithmic trdaing is to present sequence of logical trading statements based on fundamental and technical indicators...news and the like. Most of them use data mining techniques ..the so-called Business Intelligence Modelling.

yup, thats what its SUPPOSED TO DO !

3. It is quite "DIFFICULT" to implement emotional based schema that appear 'infinite" in any mechanical system. That is why they call that TRDAING WITHOUT EMOTION

certainly makes sense -- so trade WITHOUT emotion --- heck, im so bored while trading that the only emotion i show is whether or not my eyes are open !!
KIDS trade with emotion --- experience simply gets rid of it

4. Most succesful trades are based on emotion or sentiment ( that is infintely VAST amount of DATA). Example.." A trend is your friend" is emotional..never mechanical.

WELL, here we stop agreeing --- first its purely mechanical, just that you may not like its wording, but since the REALITY of the statement is oh so true, better teach your algorithm to add that to its "finite".

5. Market knowledge armed with correct PIVOT levels and good risk management is always the best out of this business

BINGO -- 2nd point of disagreement since you were speaking of intraday trading --- fairly well shown to be false, pivot points in and of themselves will show LONG or SHORT bias (also known as bullish or bearish) BUT the support and resistance areas that attach themselves to these pivots are RARELY followed, hit or used !

If one speaks of the longer timeframes, up around H4 and DAILY, then the longer timeframe pivots become stronger, but just not so for intraday, where price channels and available s+r overlays rule the day !

as far as "knowledge of the market", i will place a very substantial bet that i can tell in which direction the price shall move, simply by observing prices over a few days and most DEFINITELY just prior to any news release ---- the market continuously GIVES ITSELF AWAY prior to a move based on news !

once again, SOMEDAY computers will do it all, as good science fiction tells us, and we will lie around and become withered little nothings as the computer does everything for us ==== of course, how does one BUY the computer if they dont do anything ?

"tis a puzzlement !"

mp

 

[teezeike]

BINGO -- 2nd point of disagreement since you were speaking of intraday trading --- fairly well shown to be false, pivot points in and of themselves will show LONG or SHORT bias (also known as bullish or bearish) BUT the support and resistance areas that attach themselves to these pivots are RARELY followed, hit or used !

If one speaks of the longer timeframes, up around H4 and DAILY, then the longer timeframe pivots become stronger, but just not so for intraday, where price channels and available s+r overlays rule the day !

as far as "knowledge of the market", i will place a very substantial bet that i can tell in which direction the price shall move, simply by observing prices over a few days and most DEFINITELY just prior to any news release ---- the market continuously GIVES ITSELF AWAY prior to a move based on news !

Good. If you can call market direction..THAT IS THE MARKET KNOWLEDGE REQUIRED. Just use S+R for low risk entries.

once again, SOMEDAY computers will do it all, as good science fiction tells us, and we will lie around and become withered little nothings as the computer does everything for us ==== of course, how does one BUY the computer if they dont do anything ?

"tis a puzzlement !"

mp

Good. If you can call market direction..THAT IS THE MARKET KNOWLEDGE REQUIRED. Just use S+R for low risk entries.

 

[dcraig1]

Hi Mate,

Coming from computational background, I need to stress these pomits:

1. Algorithm is a "finite" sequence of instuctions executable by an electronic device. Finite in this context means all known variables.
2. Algorithmic trdaing is to present sequence of logical trading statements based on fundamental and technical indicators...news and the like. Most of them use data mining techniques ..the so-called Business Intelligence Modelling.
3. It is quite "DIFFICULT" to implement emotional based schema that appear 'infinite" in any mechanical system. That is why they call that TRDAING WITHOUT EMOTION
4. Most succesful trades are based on emotion or sentiment ( that is infintely VAST amount of DATA). Example.." A trend is your friend" is emotional..never mechanical.
5. Market knowledge armed with correct PIVOT levels and good risk management is always the best out of this business

I can't see whats emotional about floor pivots, but anyway thats another story.

Quite frankly, I find these attempts to reduce the behavior of financial markets to a paradigm of emotion to be worse than useless. The proponent can then "justify" just about any assertion by appealing to the great god of emotion. It's like any other sort of fundamentalism and crudely simplifies the real substance of the matter out of existance.

For a case study, let us look at the decline in the equities markets beginning in the last two months of 2007. Did investors suddenly become all emotional about stock valuations ? Who can say really, except those who claim to have a special link into the psychology of other market participants. What we do know with some certainty is that there were some serious problems in the credit markets and the quite serious propspect of the whole system of credit seizing up. Suppose I am a fairly astute investor with a low risk tolerance, was it emotion (with implied irrationality) or a rational assessment of risk that lead me to sell my stocks ?

Which leads to the question of whether one better employs ones time cogitating on the psychology of the market or getting on with technical and fundamental analysis of what the hell is going on. And that means automation to various degrees upto and including fully automated systems. Otherwise you would still be drawing your candles (or OHLC bars) on a sheet of graph paper with pencil and erasor.

And BTW, an algorithm does not have to be executed on an electronic device. You could have an algorithm to bake a christmas cake. Algorithm != computer program or fragment thereof.

Emotions infinite or have infinite number of inputs ? Don't know what that means, but one could make the observation that on all available evidence, the Universe is finite and therefore everything within it is also finite.