Are you a successful intraday trader?

[ecouret]

Succesful

Hi,

after four years of unsuccessful trading I am getting close to the conclusion that it is not possible to make money consistently trading intraday at 1' 3' or 5' on futures such as ES, ER2, YM, etc.

I spent hundreds and hundreds of hours, trading and studying. I have been able to code on TradeNavigator profitable strategies to trade stocks and futures extended but nothing that works and produces profit, with a respectable drawdown, intraday.

I do not believe anyone can do it till someone will prove me the opposite.

I would be really pleased to talk to a successful intraday trader.

Thanks

Massimo

Im sorry you feel that way massimo...perhaps your loss control is the problem...I have been trading both intraday, swing, and wealth managment styles since 1996. I have some advice for given your issues...because i think i know what the problem is. If a nail is sticking out...you need a hammer, if your paper is torn you need tape, etc...you must identify market conditions and use correct strategy for the market. If there is something i have learned is that no one strategy works in all markets...an many times as soon as you adjust it changes...my advice is learn to anticipate and identify changing markets and improve your tool box. If you would like to know more, write back.:smart:

 

[black bear]

Missed this one mp

=========================================================

newtrader, be honest with me ---- how many times do you "cut your losses early" only to find the trade would have ACTUALLY come in at profit ?

If i take a trade, and it turns out to be what APPEARS to be sour, allready knowing the trend, the time of day and the support and resistance points, I will take (or leave, if its going to be a short term opposing move) the counter trade, make pips on that one, AND I STILL HAVE THE ORIGINAL TRADE which invariably (assuming i follow my own rules) comes home to roost with profit

How can THIS not be "proficient and efficient trading ?"

because a trade goes against me for a little bit, is no reason for me to dump it --- heck, even the time it takes to dump the trade will mean i make less on the counter trade, so in the interest of time and profit, i simply dont do it !

now there are SPECIFIC times of day that a currency will reverse sharply, although usually remaining within the trend ---- this happens immediately before the noon edt reversal, where a long reverses into a very nice short, and so i set my tp on the short side, hold the long and may even "average down" on the long, once i see the short trade is finished and will reverse back up to the upside to make its final run up !

what i do is MAXIMIZE my equity, and while i have drawdowns of 20 - 30 pips on the "smoother" currencies, they are of no bother to me as long as i can see that my trend is still holding.

I had a long arguement with the owner of a prop shop in spain on this subject of "holding" what "appears" to be a loser, with him stating that you MUST dump the "loser" and go with the reversal, THEN you come back onto the long, and my arguement was twofold ---- first, youre ALREADY in the long trade and dont have to figure out where to enter because its already long, and second, I can open a NEW long trade from this new low price (average down) and double my upside profit over just doing ONE trade.

i certainly dont know if im explaining it well, but to me those who dump a reversal are acting more out of fearful protection of equity than knowledge of how the market is working, and i work from "how the market is working and to heck with drawdowns as long as the market is moving as it should !"

my "hedge" trade makes 50 pips a day, 5 pips at a time and if i were to cut it short with a stop, it simply would NOT work, and i would be out 300 - 350 pips a week, which i dont want to be !

the attached chart is very similar (fewer pips involved) to a 5 min chart that one would use for flipping --- please notice the predictable ups and downs and how each trade starts and ends at a resistance and support area (purple lines) --- it is SO SIMPLE to trade that there IS NO REASON TO HAVE A STOP IN PLACE !

any other timeframe reacts essentially the same way, ESPECIALLY if one chooses the pair or pairs one wishes to trade by looking for the SMOOTHEST H1 chart ---- using a smooth charts essentially eliminates whipsaws and having stops hit, and allows "easier" and more "fun" trading (and perhaps more profitable also !)

HOW i trade is based on trading ALL the timeframes at once, is easily explained and simply WORKS, which is the reason I do it to begin with.

it works in trending markets, ranging markets and whipsaw markets because its NOT a system per se, but an illustrated and abbreviated version of how prices are normally trading and what the market is doing at the moment ---- all i do is mimic what the currency is doing in the first place !

maybe if i charged a few thousand euros, people would pay more attention !

enjoy and trade well

mp

mp

That is a good post, and a much better explaination of how you trade etc mp

Not for me Mp to much going on for this little bears head at one time one sandwich or maple pancake at a time that the tourists leave un-attended is plenty for this little Bear at a sitting.

I can see how someone who does not mind drawdown and as good money management skills who can maintain focus on multiple positions and trades would have no real problem trading in this manner.

They would need to now their market exposure at any one time mp would they not:?: or it could all come down like a pack of cards should that Black Swan choose to strike when your little fingers are in all the Honey pots (timeframes) at the same time :?:

Q: How is that achieved mp or done or is it a job for a pc program or are you just one of those :smart: asssssssssssss"s that paid attention in class

Simple answer for a simple Bear would be appreciated, no coloured lines please


Bears tend to be a bit Blinkered and only see everything in Black & White :whistling

 

[black bear]

its really on wrong thread but thats mps fault for posting everyware

 

[new_trader]

=========================================================

newtrader, be honest with me ---- how many times do you "cut your losses early" only to find the trade would have ACTUALLY come in at profit ?

Many times in the early days. So I looked more deeply into where I was going wrong and worked on my entry, I didn't increase...or heaven forbid, remove the offending STOPS!

maybe if i charged a few thousand euros, people would pay more attention !

enjoy and trade well

mp

I think I should do the same but at the end of the day, I can't make people pay attention anymore than I can make them pay for advice. As I say, traders are born, not made.

Good trading to you too

 

[black bear]

Many times in the early days. So I looked more deeply into where I was going wrong and worked on my entry, I didn't increase...or heaven forbid, remove the offending STOPS!




I think I should do the same but at the end of the day, I can't make people pay attention anymore than I can make them pay for advice. As I say, traders are born, not made.

Good trading to you too

Hi new_trader

Agree with you


think its just the 2 camps can never meet, to different to ever get on or agree on anything

good points regards Stops & Entries imho

good trading :clover:

 

[mp6140]

mp

That is a good post, and a much better explaination of how you trade etc mp

Not for me Mp to much going on for this little bears head at one time one sandwich or maple pancake at a time that the tourists leave un-attended is plenty for this little Bear at a sitting.

indeed i understand poor bears predicament, but imagine if bear carried a small backpack and inside that backpack was an instrument that "smelled" where the food was, a GPS device that "led" the bear right to where the food was, and a small computer that traced the progress of the family that is moving away from their food, but will tell you when they are returning, giving you all the information to enjoy their meal ?

I can see how someone who does not mind drawdown and as good money management skills who can maintain focus on multiple positions and trades would have no real problem trading in this manner.

They would need to now their market exposure at any one time mp would they not:?: or it could all come down like a pack of cards should that Black Swan choose to strike when your little fingers are in all the Honey pots (timeframes) at the same time :?:

Not impossible, but unlikely when one takes into mind what your wonderful little technological "bear feast" machines are showing you !

Q: How is that achieved mp or done or is it a job for a pc program or are you just one of those :smart: asssssssssssss"s that paid attention in class

Simple answer for a simple Bear would be appreciated, no coloured lines please

LOL -- k, no lines. While my IQ allowed me to date Mensa chicks, I found them rather boring in short order and began to chase those with "reputations", finding them a HECK of a lot more fun (i like "honey" also Mr. Bear !

This information i share is simply from observing the markets from a RIGHT brained perspective and not the usual LEFT brained one --- i simply SEE things differently than most of the people in the world, for better or worse !

given that, i watched and watched and watched and one day it all made sense to me --- IT WASNT RANDOM, but simply seriously planned and executed for making the maximum profit available. Now part of that comes from the equities world, where i was rather profitable and considered with respect for what i said, but it took moving over to forex for me to really SEE how it worked, because forex is MUCH MORE PREDICTABLE than equities.

In the equities world, we refer to the movements of price in forex as "channeling", which simply means moving UP and DOWN within the LRC --- it applies to EVERY timeframe, and one usually uses the H1 intraday to see where the tops are, and once you know where the tops are, you can trade the 5 minute chart from now till the cows come home AS LONG AS YOU DONT GO PAST THE HI TOP LRC until you get confirmation that you have a breakout.

in reality, all these thought processes meld into one simple look at what and where things are happening, and can be done by anyone who CARES to know, requiring NO tremendous knowledge.

I would say that a bear, who is successful at stealing (sorry -- "appropriating") others meals could become VERY successfull at eating the mms lunch !

and you could probably even use sl's if you so wish, just make em larger !

Bears tend to be a bit Blinkered and only see everything in Black & White :whistling

hugs

mp

 

[Trader333]

hugs

mp

Presumably that was a Bear Hug ?


Paul

 

[brutusdog]

Presumably that was a Bear Hug ?


Paul

 

[black bear]

Mp

Hi Mp

Thanks for answers, appreciated

Much better detailed posts on all threads, your English is improving

now if I can get some ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ it would be most appreciated

Its only early spring and I am still



Latter :clover:

 

[teezeike]

Strange that you say this. Day trading and scalping weren't invented yesterday.

Hi,

Day Trading could be a success just like any other job.

People just believe some kinda of mechanical system could generate signals and they sit back to earn profit! IT IS IMPOSSIBLE !!

Trading is a VERY serious business. What is VERY important is to understand the Market first before strategies. Many trade S&P but do not know anything about its component ETFs and the influences on the day. After of NOTE is the important LEVELS ( Previous Lows/Highs on daily/weekly and monthly basis; SMA 50, SMA 200 and FIB. on Daily, weekly and monthly Charts)

Example:
1.If there is a bad news in financial and tech that constitute combined ~35% of S&P and no other prominent good news..then expect the market to go down
2. If Yesterday was a uptrend rally b/4 the news, then expect immediate downtrend caused by long liquidation longs be stopped...
3. Generally the market may not go above any significant LEVEL from open.
4. So if for example you sell ( and filled) at the above next significant Level with say 2~4 points cover..., it is highly probable your trade will be in in the money.
5. Remember if it was down-trend yesterday before the news, then lots of shorts could take profit off the table and some bagain hunters could try to buy at lower prices, then expect the market to cross ABOVE at most 2 LEVELS from start before going down( Short covering Rally)
6. Estimate the market range and know when to take profit and/or act the opposite way

7. Try and watch the early action for at least 15~30mins to see whats up and check out internals of the market..which sectors are leading up/down...

8. Look at the dollar/energy moves. "Traders are not happy buying US equities cos they believe the value of portfolio is going south because of weak $. Yet some are bagain hunting it betting the $ will eventually go up. Once $ tries to firm up..It could triger a rally".

9. Energy and food are subsumed by week $...so energy prices are playing weak $. UNLESS AND UNTIL Energy prices are lower WILL continue to SEE A DELIBRATELY WEAK $ and a CHOPPY MARKET

10. Look at the BIG picture. US economy is not in any crisis. It is only because of China..and the like. US wants China to float the yuan so as to curtail trade advanatges. China says NO.In order to force this..USA $ is being devalued to make USA exports cheap to mostly European consumers. Energy and food prices are denominated in $ so it is becoming more expensive in China. Now Inflation is catching up with China. The last strall will be if Euro is devalued..then CHINA must have no reason than to give in.

 

[mp6140]

M P -- Theres An Echo In Here !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hi,

Day Trading could be a success just like any other job.

People just believe some kinda of mechanical system could generate signals and they sit back to earn profit! IT IS IMPOSSIBLE !!

Trading is a VERY serious business. What is VERY important is to understand the Market first before strategies. Many trade S&P but do not know anything about its component ETFs and the influences on the day. After of NOTE is the important LEVELS ( Previous Lows/Highs on daily/weekly and monthly basis; SMA 50, SMA 200 and FIB. on Daily, weekly and monthly Charts)

Example:
1.If there is a bad news in financial and tech that constitute combined ~35% of S&P and no other prominent good news..then expect the market to go down
2. If Yesterday was a uptrend rally b/4 the news, then expect immediate downtrend caused by long liquidation longs be stopped...
3. Generally the market may not go above any significant LEVEL from open.
4. So if for example you sell ( and filled) at the above next significant Level with say 2~4 points cover..., it is highly probable your trade will be in in the money.
5. Remember if it was down-trend yesterday before the news, then lots of shorts could take profit off the table and some bagain hunters could try to buy at lower prices, then expect the market to cross ABOVE at most 2 LEVELS from start before going down( Short covering Rally)
6. Estimate the market range and know when to take profit and/or act the opposite way

7. Try and watch the early action for at least 15~30mins to see whats up and check out internals of the market..which sectors are leading up/down...

8. Look at the dollar/energy moves. "Traders are not happy buying US equities cos they believe the value of portfolio is going south because of weak $. Yet some are bagain hunting it betting the $ will eventually go up. Once $ tries to firm up..It could triger a rally".

9. Energy and food are subsumed by week $...so energy prices are playing weak $. UNLESS AND UNTIL Energy prices are lower WILL continue to SEE A DELIBRATELY WEAK $ and a CHOPPY MARKET

10. Look at the BIG picture. US economy is not in any crisis. It is only because of China..and the like. US wants China to float the yuan so as to curtail trade advanatges. China says NO.In order to force this..USA $ is being devalued to make USA exports cheap to mostly European consumers. Energy and food prices are denominated in $ so it is becoming more expensive in China. Now Inflation is catching up with China. The last strall will be if Euro is devalued..then CHINA must have no reason than to give in.

================================================

GEE --- if you hadnt put them up there as YOUR words, i would have thought they came right from my post on another thread, ALTHOUGH they were changed ever so slightly !

BUT OF COURSE, you wouldnt do that, because so many people dissagree with me !

DAMN THESE ECHOES !

MP

 

[Mathemagician]

People just believe some kinda of mechanical system could generate signals and they sit back to earn profit! IT IS IMPOSSIBLE !!

Be careful not to overgeneralize. Despite the fact that you couldn't do it, many others have.

jj

 

[poster]

hugs

mp

to be honest, I adopted your strategy of putting no stop on my Emini DJIA futures. i shorted at 12835 on Friday, as I was confident that the market will reverse. But it went in the other direction. I removed my stop and said let the dow come back to its original, I made another short at 12850, believing strongly that dow will come back to 12835, moved my limit order of 12835 to 12835 to break even and limit order of entry price 12850 to 12835. Still I was wrong, Dow went up and I made another short at 12886, limit 12850. I was not sure what to do now. But then market came down suddenly, hitting my limit order of 12850, then 12835, 12835. And I finished my day. It was last day of options, so I thought not to risk any more. I know it was risky not putting stop, as I am day trader. But I had margin to hold the position as a swing trader and so I decided, if market goes 100 points against my entry, I will check my strategy again....... But I was at the same time sure with the reversal strategy with my own calculations, risk profit analysis and looking in to the market trend...

 

[teezeike]

Be careful not to overgeneralize. Despite the fact that you couldn't do it, many others have.

jj

Thank you Mate.

I 'll rather use the word DIFFICULT instead of IMPOSSIBLE.

Lets face it. All those lines are lagging indicators. They are like CNN/Bloomberg News Reporter. They were reporting how the FOMC meeting went. BUT not how the meeting is progressing LIVE! Watch closely your say SMA lines...once price action changes dramatically...it will try to change after some time.

It is pure 50/50 chance game using these as signal generators. Rather..they are used to signify market behaviour...reference points.

Market knowledge works.

Lets take last friday S&P emini for example.

Google earning was super..B/4 IBM upped guidance..so did Intel. This shows tech sector is not seriously being affected by the downturn. CAT also showed that industrials are in good shape and even Citis' better than expected result.

Now Remember that we were at corner of an important reference point the March high of 1389 and long term 1400.

From here one should have known that,as market started, initial pullback must be bought...but then it would be difficult to cross IMPORTANT 1400 just like that. Traders took profit around that area watching if it could be crossed to re-enter. Also Fiday and auction expiration contributed to the lackluster.

The market Internals...A/D, Up/Down Volume, New Highs/Lows, TRIN and TICKS, VIX were solid in favour of a cross of 1400.

Watch out that if Bank of America...shows similar strenght on monday, you could see a slight cross of 1400. And then if Microsoft..apple and the like confirms..we could see eventually between 1430~1460 and will be here 1400~1460 for a month or so before VERY and HIGHLY probably go back to test the LOWS aound 1300 or worse. After then we could be in motion for a solid bull run 1500~1600

Note however that I am not saying that mine is the best. But I can tell you that I do not use any technical studies in my trade to generate signals. Just candle stick and the Technical Level lines. My trades could be between 0~4 trades daily. Generally profitable with confidence.

I employ market intelligence. Within 10~30mins I could estimate bottom/top of day that is 80~90% accurate.

 

[Splitlink]

to be honest, I adopted your strategy of putting no stop on my Emini DJIA futures. i shorted at 12835 on Friday, as I was confident that the market will reverse. But it went in the other direction. I removed my stop and said let the dow come back to its original, I made another short at 12850, believing strongly that dow will come back to 12835, moved my limit order of 12835 to 12835 to break even and limit order of entry price 12850 to 12835. Still I was wrong, Dow went up and I made another short at 12886, limit 12850. I was not sure what to do now. But then market came down suddenly, hitting my limit order of 12850, then 12835, 12835. And I finished my day. It was last day of options, so I thought not to risk any more. I know it was risky not putting stop, as I am day trader. But I had margin to hold the position as a swing trader and so I decided, if market goes 100 points against my entry, I will check my strategy again....... But I was at the same time sure with the reversal strategy with my own calculations, risk profit analysis and looking in to the market trend...

mp knows my opinion on "no stops". Nevertheless, I am trying to put them farther away than I used to. I think that there is a point where you, really, must lnow that to lose such a sum would be a setback to any successful trading that you have done, previously.

To hell with giving too much back to the market after all the work entailed in getting it.

Nevertheless, I concede that there are many traders out there who can get a trade to move in their chosen direction, immediately. You and I are not one of those, yet. I hope that you have more time than I have!

Good trading.

 

[Mathemagician]

Thank you Mate.

I 'll rather use the word DIFFICULT instead of IMPOSSIBLE.

Lets face it. All those lines are lagging indicators. They are like CNN/Bloomberg News Reporter. They were reporting how the FOMC meeting went. BUT not how the meeting is progressing LIVE! Watch closely your say SMA lines...once price action changes dramatically...it will try to change after some time.

It is pure 50/50 chance game using these as signal generators. Rather..they are used to signify market behaviour...reference points.

'Difficult' is a much better choice!

Just remember, not all systems are based on squiggly lines...

jj

 

[mp6140]

Mp -- No Stops !

over a period of time, being beaten upon by such nefarious fellows such as Bear, Nine, Splt and a few my ancient mind forgets, I have modified my stance to one of WARNING those without a decent amount of experience to NOT try this at home !

Friday was a "dangerous" day because of options expiration, and volitility was the order of the day, as to be expected --- couple that with a short day in most markets and we get some really outrageous moves.

friday is also a dangerous day to trade because IF YOUR TRADE DOES NOT COMPLETE by the EOD, you stand a very good chance of being "trashed" ON SUNDAY when the mms and brokers are trading, but have not yet opened trading to the retail trader --- POSTER, take a look at when your emini opens and see if it doesnt drop a lot more !

If you play this game, you need to be VERY aware of ALL timeframe trends, so as to be able to profitably exit before trading closes, or be attached to a server that will execute the trade the following day, even if they are not yet open for business --- here in the states, few brokers allow retail trading (and therefore the completing of a "floating trade" from the previous week) before ONE HOUR after they begin trading --- in this way they GET BACK what they lost on friday, while you get the shaft !

k -- enough of the philosophy of that trading - - - - - - - -

BE VERY CAREFUL ON FRIDAYS, EVEN MORE DURING TRIPLE WITCHING, and use the LRC or your desired form of trend lines or channels to verify your emini moves as i say, which is bouncing from top to bottom and other way around !

use those and support and resistance overlays on your charts for ANY TIMEFRAME YOURE WORKING IN to confirm and verify !

glad it worked out.

 

[mp6140]

Mp -- My Lifes Work Has Been Rewarded Finally !

being a simple soul, i so much love what my particular use of the american/english language has produced !

i am often known for using words that are compied and find their way into the trading vernacular, and my greatest homage was when MNBC starting using one of my words constantly.

years ago i used to participate in a chat room, where i did instant analysis of support and resistance figures for stocks that had been discovered "moving up".

during that time i adopted the word "TOPPY" to describe a stock that had moved up, had a wee bit more to give, and then was going to reverse and it stuck ------ 4 months later MNBC (one of our financial channels) started using the word and it stuck there also.

other words im accused of using, be they words that existed prior to my use or not, are "methinks", "purchance", "methodological" and a rash more i cant even remember, but to see magic math using my latest, designed to show that im an analog man in a digital world, "squiglies" is the one.

First adopted when fooling around with "the rumpled one", who i have known for years now and is known as a "DIGITAL" coder of indicators and overlays, I used to have fun arguments with him about his "DIGITS" vs. my "SQUIGGLY LINES"

Ive repeatedly seen the word being used and I wish to than magic math for bringing it to my attention, and confirming my abilities to change the english language !

THNX MAGIC !

mp

 

[Grey1]

Hi,



People just believe some kinda of mechanical system could generate signals and they sit back to earn profit! IT IS IMPOSSIBLE !!

Not correct.

grey1

 

[mp6140]

Not correct.

grey1

====================================

correct -- "not correct !"

while not a friend of systems or EA robots, one must admit that they can do an admirable job in trending markets although many suffer in "ranging" markets, but then so do a lot of manual traders unless they find s+r and just trade that !

its rare that a "system" has NO good in it, as even something as simple as MA x-overs WILL work (they tend to be late unless modified to the point where they become "whippy", which then can be "filtered" - -- - - - - and on and on --- theyre usable and theyre modifieable to be used in different situations, but then YOU have to determine WHAT the situation is -- slow trending, fast trending, ranging, whippy, etc !

but money CAN be made !

mp