F's "Devil in the Detail" Intraday FX Trading Journal 2015

[Forexmospherian]

Tomorrow is February 1st 2015 and I have decided to start a new "controlled " journal and go more into the detail of my own Full time job - ie Trading the FX spot markets on a Intraday basis.

Its now time to explain more about the "devil in the detail" - the planning - the time management - the real detail of taking 10 to 20 intraday trades every day - normally between 6 30 am UK time and finishing by 5 00 pm.

I am not going to spend time going over everything I have already explained in my other 2 main threads -

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/dis...trading-calls-expert-retail-forex-trader.html

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tra...ding-forex-market-make-consistent-profit.html


Its so obvious that maybe less than 50 members have really looked through the key points - as so many other "old time" members ask so many questions that have already been answered not once - but in some cases - several times

My method and system is complex - and is a waste of time for all newbie FX traders as well as those without at least 12 /18 months of general FX trading on a live account and without at least 6 months of FX scalping experience.

I only have ever traded FX - no gold / silver / Oil / Ftse / Indices or stocks. My expertise is purely retail trading - I have never traded with more than a quarter of a million in one account and never over 25 lots per pip ( 5 yrs ago approx £170 per pip in those days)

Its a shame to say - but as in life - we all are different - we are not equal - we all start as new borns - we all have different skills - we all have strengths and weaknesses and we are all at different levels in our developments.

The FX trading "journey" is always ongoing - every year - every decade - but mine will finish in the next 2 /3 years as I will retire - something I had originally planned to do before I was 55.

This thread for a start is closed to all outside comments.

That will reviewed after the first month. Meanwhile any proper questions can be asked in the other 2 threads - because believe it or not - when you are full time and very experienced FX Intraday trading is very boring and you have time to type and make comments etc.

I will be covering my typical day in "detail" first - along with points I have not really discussed in the other 2 threads.

Its now time to reveal more ;-=)

 

[Forexmospherian]

Some of the "Detail"

My currency pairs for February 2015

Eur / Usd ( EU ) - Gbp / Usd ( GU ) - Eur / Jpy ( EJ ) - Aud / Usd ( AU ) - Usd / Jpy ( UJ ) - Usd / Cad ( UCad )

My 60+ times every day I look to take scalp trades with stops under 5 pips and targets from 7 -25+ pips

Over 85% of ALL my trade entries take place at these times -


6 39am - 6 51am - 7 01am - 7 09am - 7 21am -7 30am

7 39am - 7 51am - 8 01am - 8 09am - 8 21am -8 30pm

8 39am - 8 51am - 9 01am - 9 09am - 9 21am -9 30pm

.................................................... etc

................................................... etc

................................................... etc

2 39pm - 2 51pm - 3 01pm - 3 09pm - 3 21pm -3 30pm

3 39pm - 3 51pm - 4 01pm - 4 09pm - 4 21pm -4 30pm

4 39pm - 4 51pm - 5 01pm ....................


I very rarely scalp more than 2 pairs at same time.

I take breaks according to the daily news calender and my own agenda - (ie walking the dog - school drop offs - shopping - gardening - powerwalking / swimming - eating and drinking at home or pub etc

I am on average at my screens for less than 20 mins every hour - with some hours of no trading if ahead of plan.

My daily target is still 50 pips - Even if I have made that target within first 2 or 3 hrs of trading - I dont stop. I stop after 3 consecutive losses for at least one hour off - I allow a maximum of 7 losses per day with average - 1- 3 losses very day.

If markets are busy and volumes and volatility are good - I might only take 8 or 10 trades over the day and leave part stakes on with stops in profit.

If I am on a roll - and only 1 loss after 10 trades I will keep going - similar if I have had 4 or 5 losses after 10 or 12 trades and not hit daily target - i will take more trades - up to a maximum of 25 over a 10 -12 hr period,

I dont wait to be stopped out - If the entry goes against me - i prefer to exit at minus 1 or 2 pips than waiting to see if it works.

Trade entries are the most important part of my method - they are paramount

Even if I get a trade wrong and we don't make 7 or 12 pips or more - I still try and exit with positive green pips

Timing and the skill set spotting all the clues needed to enter a trade take time to develop.

Next part - Money management F's way

 

[Forexmospherian]

I have covered my main money management methods in both of the other threads - but now its time to explain more of my detail and why multi intraday trades and the tightest stops possible are all so important for me to grow my FX capital account and take cash out of it

Psychology should be the least of your worries once you have taken over 5000 live trades.

Ok for many traders part time - that might take 7 or 10 years or longer - just to get there.

For me any Full time intraday trader should be doing between 900 and 1500 short term trades per annum

Under 500 trades per annum - then for me not enough - OK you might make profits - but can you make above 20% ROI per month ? - revisit your method and get winning trades with RR of over 1.5 / 2 + always within 30 mins max.

Over 4k or 5k live trades a year - for me - too many - fine tune - not efficient - too costly and tiring

Stops need to be super tight - never more than 4 or 5 times the spread if possible on 1 -3 pip spread size.

I need to know if I am wrong ideally under 2 mins

I need to see I am in a profit or at least break even - otherwise I am wrong and my entry was not quite correct

You are not skilled enough if you cannot get a win ratio of over 60% based on 100 trades with tight stops - not just on 10 or 30 trades. It will take plenty of study and maybe many 100's of demo trade entries to get there - but as Major Magnum proved with his results - both on demo and a live account last year - its possible.

I dont have fixed stops or fixed targets - the FX market is dynamic - I am totally fluid - with one objective - to take a part profit of over 60% stake size and only leave a part stake on then with the stop in a small profit.

One bad trade and a loss of 2 or 3 pips is no problem - two bad consecutive losses - still not to bad - what 5 -10 pips down - and then one win - is it just 5 pips? - or 12 pips or a nice 19 pips and then I can even be in profit on even a 33% win ratio

Stake size - last year it was under 1% of a decent size retail capital account of over normally $60k - in fact many scalps on only 0 5 %.

This year - change of plan - I will go into more detail another time - but its not one I recommend to most traders - only ones with loads of live money trades under their belts and not challenging their own personal "financial wall" ( every trader has one when they use their own money ;-) )

The "devil is in the detail" - but you need to work the stats and maths out yourself.

Out of every 10 scalp trades you take - you will get at least 2 winners that go over 15 pips - maybe over 25 pips even. You will have small losses depending purely on the performance of you and the market - 1 to 3 losses - no problem - 5 losses out of 10 trades - well then you are like Tiger Woods in Golf - dropping from the clear Number 1 in the World - to now 47th - up your game - work on it.

The first aim is not to make over 50 pips a day ( my target)

No

My first aim -is not to have a losing day - Ok - 14 pips over a session - not good enough - 37 pips reasonable and very acceptable - over 50+ pips - I am on plan - and performing.

My own plan is nearly like robbing Fort Knox - detailed nearly to the "n"th degree - I no longer need to look at it every day - I know were I should be at during all stages of the session and day - and remember really every day is different - at least that stops it from being totally boring

Some trades from Friday to follow next

 

[Forexmospherian]

Friday 30th January 2015 - Trades taken at Key Times in TW's

Friday was a very good day for me.

Here are some great examples of my method in action

Note the times of changes coincide with my TW's and KT's

 

[Forexmospherian]

Seeing a new trade evolve

Here's a great example of seeing your trade start and carry on and instead of being just a 5 -15 minute scalp - it as a lot more potential -

This happened just 2 days ago on Friday - I had so much time on my hands I was getting really bored ( sad ) - but any job can be boring at times - keeping that focus and discipline is just so important

One hour later -

After 4 pm UK time -

Over 110 pip lower than start of a scalp - perfect 30 -40% part stake job with stop always in a profit

 

[Forexmospherian]

I notice we have quite a busy calender week - starting tomorrow with red news announcements on the EU / GU and US dollar and then at the end of the week - we have Freaky Friday - Non Farm Payroll day.

Its a new week and a new month.

I don't normally trade on Sunday evenings - but I never completely rule it out depending on the action etc- but I only leave 30% stake trades with stops in profits if I am already up over 150+ pips - simply because If I am only up say 35 -50 pips - that can easily fall foul to a "gap"

I do have a UCad 30% buy still on from early on in the week 2460 and have the 30% stake stop moved up to to 2640 - Friday It made nearly 2800 - but I was scalp selling it later on in the afternoon thinking under 2645 and I will pull it. It closed at 2730 area - so I feel fairly safe we will not have a 85+ pip gap - but as we all know - nothing is 100% in the FX market

I dont have any 30% trades on any other pairs - I came out of EU / GU and AU sells far too early I suppose - but wanted the profits in January - and i will say I still prefer short term Intraday to leaving trades on for weeks and months - after all I am more a intraday scalper than a longer term Swing or positional trader.

Also with what happened on January 15th with the SNB as already made me relook at my Capital risk and revaluate scalping exactly on the hour and half hr - always the 2 key times for Black Swan events to spike the markets etcetc - maybe nothing like 3500 pips on the Echf - but even 30 -50 pip spikes can muck your day up . I will say though normally spikes under 50 pips do return to their former price within 30 mins - but I do place hard stops for my scalps between 20 -30 pips - purely as safety nets - as my scalp stops are all soft and not set in stone at 3 -7 pips - simply because i want to be out ASAP if its not working - and that means babysitting with one click in and out.

 

[Forexmospherian]

GU - Monday AM from 6 39 am and 7 00 am - EO - Scalp Sell

Good Morning to all FX Intraday Traders

GU

We have news on this pair at 9 30 am

I missed the initial sell at 6 39 am - but entered at 7 00 am after a high of 5076 at 5072.

Chart set up below

I have exited 70% stake at 5059 and will leave 30% stake on with stop in profit at 68

I will no longer baby sit this scalp - but will check out every TW if I manage to stay in it

 

[Forexmospherian]

EJ - Monday Am - Scalpers Dream

EJ

7 02 am

My favourite intraday pair

Missed scalp buys at 6 39 and 6 51 am but will try and enter if we stay above 132 95 during next 6 mins

7 56 am

I have taken 2 scalp buys on this pair

First at 96 for 7 pips and then again at 97 for 11 pips

Will look at posting a chart on other thread on this pair as still scalp bullish but needs above 113 13 and 16 to stay with more scalp buys

8 52 am

So far EJ as made 133 52

That alone is above 50 pips from my original scalp buy area - so far had 4 trades on it - ;-)

 

[Forexmospherian]

Good Morning to all FX Intraday Traders

GU

We have news on this pair at 9 30 am

I missed the initial sell at 6 39 am - but entered at 7 00 am after a high of 5076 at 5072.

Chart set up below

I have exited 70% stake at 5059 and will leave 30% stake on with stop in profit at 68

I will no longer baby sit this scalp - but will check out every TW if I manage to stay in it

With approx 15 mins to go to UK Pound news AT 9 30 AM - GU dropped over 40 pips from original sell
area

Updated chart below

 

[Forexmospherian]

Heres a tip to help all FX traders find whether interim highs and lows will hold

I call in the 30 min rule.

A great example just as been on GU prior to 9 30 am news - it bottomed at 5030 at 9 13 am

I came out sells at 5034 ( mentioned on other thread - as did not want to be in for news )

Then after 9 30 am we stayed above the low and from 5044 it was just a scalp buy

At 30 mins from low - ie 9 42 am we were at 5063 - and it then topped at 5082 at 9 38/9 am just before the end of TW

We now keep a check to see high can be breached again within 30 mins - if not it favours lower

Also the low now at 5030 really needs over 60 mins from 9 13 am to see if breached - thats if it happens

The idea being the longer a level holds - the stronger it becomes and it helps for you to formulate a bias in between 30 and 60 mins etc

Complex - but it works maybe 80% of the time and is another clue in my system

 

[Forexmospherian]

2 10pm

I have been busy both scalp selling and buying GU over last 5 hrs

i have posted my scalp buys and charts from 5005 /08 areas on the normal Intraday thread as did not want to use this journal for constant blogging etc - just for the key pairs I am in everyday along with no scalp charts and updates on 30% trades

We have some main US Dollar news at 3 00 pm next - so will be looking again at EU and UCad for then

 

[Forexmospherian]

Great Example of a UJ scalp sell at a KT in a TW

I had actually finished for the day - prior to LC - but as I was looking through the charts - I could not resist another trade with a RR over 4 in 30 mins

For a Monday - its been a great trading day and I have been surprised with the amount of great moves on GU / EJ / UJ / EU and not forgetting the Cad - my 30% stake got taken out prior to Midday but with 265 pips from last Wednesday - so with today's tally another 400 + pip day - although over 300 pips only at 30% stakes

 

[Forexmospherian]

Its Tuesday 3rd February and just gone 7 30 am and atm my first 2 scalps are sells on the EJ and UJ

I am still making comments in the Live FX Intraday thread - mainly as notes on levels and scalp plans etc and will keep this thread for more on charts and updates on my 30% Trades I leave on after my scalps.

As of now I have no 30% stake trades I am holding with stops in profit - but hope that will change during the next 2 hrs or so

Will not be here for red EU news at 8 00 am - but will be checking out the GU for the red Pound news at 9 30 am UK time

Have a good day


Regards


F

 

[Forexmospherian]

UCad - 4 - key times for scalps this morning

UCad - 1 Min LR chart

4 key times for scalps

9 00 am - 9 09 am - 9 30am and 9 50/51 am

2 scalp buys - - 2 scalp sells

LRs and PA need to line up with key times in time windows as shown on charts

As discussed in Live Intraday thread on Ucad

Latest scalp sell now made 14 pips from 9 51 am at 10 14 am

 

[Forexmospherian]

200+ pip move up on EU today

I have been scalping both ways on the EU today but my price structure after 9 00 am and Midday today favoured scalp buys - which I then turned into 30% stake trades with the stops in profit etc

This is my working full day 1 min LR chart for today

Because it is spread over 12 hrs plus - all the detail cannot be seen - but as you can imagine - I only view a few hours at a time - not view like this - but more like the UCad chart I posted earlier today

My Price structure comes off the longer term LRs - whilst my 2 way scalping comes from the shorter ( quicker ) LR's along with the time windows etc

Ideally price needs to stay above 1470 for more tries up - but even if it pullbacks to 1420 or 30 - its still in an up bull price session for rest of the day / evening

Another great day - although nothing like 400+ pips of yesterday

 

[Forexmospherian]

Wednesday 9 25 am approx UK time and just awaiting UK Pound news


Been a busy morning already - 8 scalps already

Will post an updated EU chart in next hour

 

[Forexmospherian]

EU - Last 18 hrs since new high of 1532

The EU surprised most traders by making 1532 yesterday after LC .

Since then its fallen nearly 100 pips - ( profit taking from yesterday's 200 pip rise )

This is my 1 min LR chart showing the fall

i would still like to buy above 1420 /30 area and have already had 2 scalp buys on from above 38 and 1442 - but know I need over 1460 to stay with them

 

[Forexmospherian]

Mid Week Update

Wednesday pm 7 15 pm UK time

Since Monday my daily tally of green pips keep going down but as of now - I am up 809 pips in 3 days - although one UCad trade was placed from last Wednesday and so really approx 220 -250 pips should have been in January count.

Intraday trading is very boring and I would like to than NVP for joining me for couple of days and MM and dearlife for sharing their trades with me today.

I have got a lot to update from today - - trade wise - I took too many scalps - 24 in total - but MM who is happy to share his pips tally thought he had a bad day - only 22 trades and a 81% win ratio - but not quite the 100 pips - - as well as one bad trade at minus 14 - so he called it a "rough " day

If thats a rough day - well looking forward to seeing one of his best days ;-)

More stuff to follow after Liverpool Footy match on BBC1 - ( I am a Man U fan - so up the Wanderers tonight )

 

[Forexmospherian]

EU - Thursday 5th February - 2 min LR chart update

Yesterday - in the end the EU dropped approx 200 pips from at its morning high

Today its gone back up over 150 pips - so over 300+ pips of movements in 2 days

This chart below - ( although not so accurate as a 1 min ) shows hows my Longet term LR's give me bias

Yesterday they were going down and over price saying lower

Today after 1330 and 1350 - they were under price saying up bias and price should rise - and it did - up over 100 + pips from that level

The trendlines and ray lines all assist me with reading my LR's and of course PA

 

[Forexmospherian]

Freaky Friday 6 00pm UK time

Had my worst trading day of the week - mainly because I was not here for the NFP and the early US session. Still end result way above a normal week - with over 870 pips - compared to a normal 300 to 450 pips in 5 days

OK still made my daily target plus from 7 am to before midday - but missed another 5 hrs due to an unexpected trip to Burton on Trent Hospital on behalf of the wife & mother in law - ( yes she's ok etc etc )

Now I am back I have just been having a quick look at the main pairs I would have been looking at trading the rest of the day - to see the results from the key news

As follows - movement so far after LC from daily high to low or vice versa - APPROX

EU - 150 PIPS

GU - 100 PIPS

EJ - 120 PIPS

AU - 100 PIPS

UCa- 150 PIPS

And the interesting pair - UJ - 210 pips - even the "beast" the GJ only did 230 pips.

I have been trading the UCad more than normal this week - and also this morning - simply because I have liked the price action.

Will post a 3 day chart of EU next of what I have been looking at for my swing trades on 30% stakes with stops in profit