my journal 3

http://i.imgur.com/aTi7B.jpg
aTi7B.jpg

excellent work. got it from here:
School Sucks Podcast: The END of Public Education

and here:
Education Revolution, Education Evolution - Logical Fallacies Poster
 
excellent...

the two guys are upstairs, getting ready to come down and kill me

or maybe they sent love text messages

i haven't read them - afraid of being hurt by their insults

i just want to avoid them for the next day and a half, because then my mom will join us so they'll be easier to handle

we just weren't made to be together on vacation: they lie in the sun all day long, go to the restaurant all the time, she makes him pay, I don't get manipulated anymore by her... too many qualities that I don't have, don't have enough qualities to be of their group:

1) willingness to get skin cancer
2) willingness to give up on swimming and restoring my health after 11 months of work
3) willingness to be manipulated into paying for the lady
4) willingness to waste money at the restaurant to eat unhealthy food that i can eat for very little at home

damn... sucks

in the meanwhile, the systems have finally produced some real money: 1000 dollars of profit since i've started trading them: excellent!

...

dude, is it them or not?

someone came into my apartment just now... luckily i locked all doors leading to my room, so they were stuck in the living room.

i ain't answering text messages, ain't answering the door, ain't answering the window...

let them knock all they want

what's next?

what r they gonna do?

set the house on fire?

damn ****ers

if I can resist another few hours I'll be able to sleep and then tomorrow will be friday, so only 48 hours more of putting up with them

...

just now i was listening to "more" and before "desperado" and before "honesty".

I have no beef with "more". Honesty, I have none, because i'd have to tell them they are rude, disappointing, and worthless. I can't be honest, because that'd hurt them more. I'll just avoid them. Desperado is what I'm being right now, riding my fences and not getting any younger... leading a solitary life basically.

...

Because I feel that I am better. I am alone because I am not happy with how you are. You're not good enough for me. My relatives are better than all of you ****ing friends I made during my lifetime. You "friends"... just one of you seven or eight friends hosted during the summer... just one passed the test and was good enough to be invited with my enjoyment. All the other "friends" were accidents. Success rate of about 15%.
 
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I was just now walking on the beach, on the rocks, beautiful sky, big waves, storm, lightnings showing me the way... beautiful

I was talking to my aunt, badmouthing my two guests.

As I was talking I was walking away from the house so they wouldn't hear me from upstairs.

This dude kept sending me text messages, goddamn.

Like today, he was asking me for stock market prices. Several times, same yesterday and previous days.

And to think that i specifically asked him "will you need a computer there? because if you do, i won't lend you mine".

He's a total pain in the ass, polite but very insisting, plus you have to add that doubt that I mentioned, and how he might like me, so that bothers me slightly more.

Plus they've both been rude with my grandmother's maid, which happened on the first day - since then they're in my black list.

Which doesn't mean I will never see them again, because I always play it safe and never break relationships with anyone. Not because i count on using them or enjoying them in the future, but because I don't want their revenge for being kicked out of my life.

Anyway, i was walking away from the house and i realized that, for better and/or for worse, I have become a person on the run, on the run from my guests, as I am on the run from the boss, and on the run from all the people i despise.

That kind of throws them off guard, too. But I do it because I feel there is no talking or confronting someone whom I despise and consider stupid and who failed my exam.

There's no reasoning with stupid people.

And as I'm becoming more knowledgeable and intelligent, especially lately, with these conspiracy theories/facts - which means opening up my eyes as to the global reality surrounding me... as i've become more intelligent and knowledgeable, I've been increasing the percentage of people whom I avoid, walk away from, because they're like animals, and you don't talk to animals. It's like a barking dog. You don't try and talk to the barking dog. You totally ignore him. That's the way I've come to see a lot of humans.

These two guests have become dogs ever since they disrespected my maid, and more when they said that going to the restaurant is cheaper than grocery shopping (she said and he agreed), she is always nice but sides with whoever it's more convenient - in this case him because he pays for her.

Damn, so disappointing. Not just them, but humanity.

What's next...

Tomorrow: here's the plan.

One more day to avoid them effectively.

Hopefully they'll go on a long trip somewhere they were planning to go, on a boat - she suggested the idea of renting a boat - of course once again he'd be the one paying. Because I am against it, I won't be going, and she'll manipulate him into paying, the same way she had me pay 2000 euros for her on dinners, and a couple of days ago she had the nerve to say "did i ever ask you for anything?".

So here's the plan.

I sleep until 10 AM or even 11 AM (yeah, 'cause i am going to sleep late). Like today, she'll come to wake me up, even before that, to suggest something to do (in case they haven't gone on that trip).

Then, naturally, I'll get upset, but I won't tell her, but it'll make me strong. And, just like today, I'll tell her that I was sleeping, at which point she'll tell me what they're about to do, and I'll answer that I am tired and not interested.

Effortlessly, I will skip their morning activity. At about noon, while they're gone, I'll go swimming.

Then they'll come back, and I'll be swimming, so they'll leave again, and go to the restaurant. And the sucker will pay for her.

Then of course, all along, they'll send me all their text messages, with some questions, that sound either like insults or threats, such as "are you mad at me?" and "do you want me to leave?", in his case, "how did that stock perform?" and "i'm coming downstairs to use your laptop".

Tomorrow these messages might be something like "we left for this place, because we didn't want to bother you".

That might be something that happens. Maybe. Like a 25% chance I'd say. Yeah, 'cause I haven't been answering some of their text messages, so they might escalate things on their own. I am tired of being bombarded with sms.

...

almost 3 am, so that means i'll sleep until noon. good.

i've locked the entrance door, too, so they can't sneak in and knock on other doors inside the house.

so, all i've got to deal with is the afternoon.

they'll go to the restaurant, unless they want to pull something original, such as that they're worried and they stuck around to see what happened to me - i wouldn't be surprised.

anyway, what matters is that he doesn't get to my computer - to achieve this, i have to cut all contacts, or he'll ask me to use it, one way or another.

If i don't reply to his text messages, he's not going to break into the house and try to take my computer to use it without my consent.

So, ok, i sleep till they go to lunch, and then i go swimming and come several hours later. Or i just end up going swimming later on.

He must understand that I don't want him to use my computer. His next text message must be: "don't worry - i won't ask you to use your laptop". There's no covnersation otherwise. I am sick and tired of his text messages asking me for news from the stock market or asking me to use my laptop.

Tomorrow I might reach 10k. I went short on ZN again.

In order to stay up a bit longer I painted something on Microsoft Paint:

Snap1.jpg

If there's something i can't stand is people disrespecting my maid, the bitch switching sides, and now i remembered that he said "bello" to me in a way that makes me fear for my ass.

I can't stand people being rude to my maid, nice to me because they're of my same sex and attracted to me (!) and I can't stand the bitch exploiting him for lunches, and people using my computer, and... they've got to go. I am done with these guys.

**** man. This thing really sucks.

This guy is a complete idiot and he's after me. I am afraid I have come across another person who likes men and is... he only came because he... is in love with me. Goddamn it. This really sucks.

He kept inviting me to his place, somewhere in the mountains and since I never would go, i said hey, why don't you come and you come with this other person (so i feel safe). So he came and he doesn't care about swimming, doesn't care about nothing here, so why did he come? For the same reason he told me that i am good looking: he's gay and he likes me in that way.

****ing idiot. Now this guy is powerful, he's got connections... i don't want to be killed by him in revenge so I can't just say, as i wouldn't say to anyone, "disappear from my life".

At the same time, now i've got this great excuse/reason that he used my computer against my will.

So, if i stay away from him, he might think that it's just about the computer, that I am obsessed about. Whereas it's also very much about "you're good-looking" and all that.

Let's try to turn the situation to my advantage.

Another good thing is that the lady is here. So you know, like the US government and its disinfo agents: he might think I am mad at her, at him using the computer, that i'm just a loner... so many things. Oh, man. What a disaster. I'd have been better off coming alone.

The good thing is that they distracted me. I had two friends around to make me feel like I am not alone. Yeah, i guess to some degree I am like everyone else, and i feel judged and pitied to come on vacation by myself. Furthermore they did distract me enough to keep me from overtrading, so i do owe them the money i made.

Ok, now it's 3 am, so i am guaranteed to sleep until noon.

Soon I'll close this post and go to sleep.

Ok, let's go over the plan again.

I wake up at noon. Change: if they knock I don't answer. They can worry all they want. I have the right to sleep as much as I want.

If they leave the place for good and go back to rome: great.

**** these guys.

I am not even going to see their faces tomorrow.

If necessary i'll stay up all night so that tomorrow I can't possibly see them.

Then saturday my parents join us, so it's a whole different story. And the markets are closed so i don't have to be bothered by him with his questions.

The point is I had told him that i would not let him borrow it. So there is a huge problem regarding computer as well as him being attracted to me. Damn, what a ridiculous uncomfortable situation. Now I understand how that girl must have felt when i pursued her and she didn't want me.

Yep. And it happened before. But you know what? If there's a so-so girl that wants you, you don't mind. You might not say yes, but you don't mind. But if you really dislike her or if she's actually a man, then that's when you feel harassed. So i felt harassed a couple of times.

Furthermore, if you feel harassed by someone who might be in the secret service or similar: then you definitely feel... very harassed.

I gotta find a way to be rid of this guy for good, and not get killed as a consequence. Kind of complex. If he wants to kill me, he can do it, no matter who he is.

She's a bitch, but he's the real problem.

He's not fun to be with. And the reason is obvious. He's not here to have an interesting conversation: he's here to have sex with me (!). Something like that. This is disgusting.

Good thing I placed them both in a different house, but that is still not far enough.

Damn, I can't believe, that having these doubts, I invited him on vacation.

I guess this is because he kept asking me to go on a trip with him, and i said what the ****, let's invite this guy on my trip because there's no way i'll go on his trip. Initially there was another guy supposed to be coming with us, but he didn't come. Then a third person, the bitch, invited herself, and so I seized the opportunity, because i didn't want to be alone with this guy.

I just keep repeating myself, i guess for people who haven't read the previous posts in part, and in part because I am really going over the same thoughts over and over again and I am sleepy, too.

The longer i sleep, the better.

In the meanwhile I am listening to alex jones. Also hearing the waves and the wind outside.

...

Ok, this is it: closing the post. It's 3.30, and I am guaranteed to sleep until noon. Hopefully until 1 pm. This way when I wake up they'll be long gone to the restaurant, tired of trying to wake me up... basically i'll wear them out by sleeping. Yeah, it sounds like a wasted vacation, but they're only here for my first week, and spending time with them is worse than spending it sleeping. Besides, I'll swim later, once they've gone to the restaurant. I can only swim so much per day.
 
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past 1 pm, still in bed, 3 text messages from dude, none from gold digging freeloading lady

deleted them all without reading them: without communication i cannot be manipulated

listening to alternative radios

don't know how long it'll last but right now i have reached a balance of 9850 dollars, close to my target of 10k

i am officially back in the game, in the automated game i mean

Whereas last summer holiday, a year ago, was the end of my trading with the investors, due to exceeding our "uncle point", this vacation marks my second comeback since the investors called it quits.

By now i'd be at 25k if i hadn't messed up in april, with my discretionary trades, but hey, 10k is pretty good, too.

plus i got to skip a big drawdown in the past few weeks

46 hours to go with the two guests

they got used to coming into my house, without knocking and today they even left the door open, TO MY HOUSE. They take advantage of the fact that it's open, they open it, find the next door locked, and leave it open (many doors between me and them). Ok, now I've locked them all: door one, door two, door three, and door four.

I am fed up with them. I won't go out of my house and won't answer text messages all day long: 1) they'll get the message and 2) I am still somewhat sunburned so my back will rest.

I'd still like to go swimming at 7 pm, which I might very well do. Or like at 6 pm. But this time I need to go somewhere else, because I have... well, basically i have to hide my keys somewhere. Because I can't count on them not walking into my house and even my room, so I am not leaving anything unlocked anymore.
 
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44 hours to go

he's also listening to the radio, upstairs - or she is

i don't know who's upstairs, but presumably, since he stays at home longer, she's at the beach and he's upstairs listening to the radio.

maybe he got tired of treating her to the restaurant, and she found out that it isn't cheaper to eat at the restaurant than to buy food and eat it at home

Oh, and another thing i dislike about him is that he listened for the whole two hours trip to crappy music on the radio, drove like a madman, and his music sucked, and his driving is prone to causing deadly accidents - i am done with these guys - i hope after these few days together, they'll be the ones avoiding me

44 hours to go
 
Travis

what systems are you trading and what success are you having ?

N
 
Oh, another painter.

Here's the list:

AUD_ID_01
CAD_ID_01
CAD_ID_03
CHF_ID_01
CL_ID_05
CL_ON_03
EUR_ID_05
GBL_ID_01
GBL_ID_02
GBP_ID_02
GBP_ID_04
NG_ID_01
NG_ID_02
NG_ID_04
NG_ON_02
NQ_ID_02
NQ_ID_03
NQ_ON_01
NQ_ON_02
YM_ID_03
YM_ID_05
ZN_ON_02

By the way...! They're not just 13 as I thought at the start: i've actually enabled as many as 22 systems. Great. Some action will ensue.

what more do you want to know about them? I could go on forever, so I need specific questions, which I also enjoy, so by all means do ask them.

Regarding the success, they produced 2000 dollars in 48 hours, so considering the capital invested, so far it's about 25%.

No wait, i made 450 dollars with discretionary trading, with ZN. Ok, so they made roughly 20%. Of course, as i said recently, this was a pretty big gamble, because according my estimates (calculated via my montecarlo "blender"), I also had a 25% chance of blowing out the account (by losing more than 3000 so that those 13 systems could not continue trading).
 
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I made this video last summer. I guess it's the best one, so i am posting it again. These waves are... happen at least once a month in this place where i am at. And they happened again just yesterday.

20110919 - YouTube
 
wow, dude.

This is bad news, and good at once.

I think my "friends" might have left early. They drove out of here at 5.30 PM, and that's already... 3 and a half hours ago. But where did they leave the keys?

Maybe in the door, or on the table.

If they did, no more fear of being attacked at night.

No messages either. I guess the fact that I didn't answer his 3 messages yesterday just about did it. He must have taken offense, yeah, because he's a big shot. Seriously, he is. But hey, I don't judge you by the car you drive, but by how respectfully you treat my grandmother's maid and you blew it.

...

Or maybe one of them left, and I wonder which one. I tried my best to offend both in the same amount. So neither felt treated unfairly. I don't like ganging up on a person, but "ganging up" (by yourself) on a group, when you're alone, that's fine.

...

If they left, I'll celebrate: i'll go for a walk, by myself in the rocks, with my phone, using it as a flashlight if i need it... i'll do it once i make sure they've left. I won't bring a beer, but I am tempted to drink when i come back.

How do I find out if one of them is still here?

I think he might have left, because she knows me better. I got offended by him and there's that thing that bothered me, too, engaging in a homosexual relationship. No offense to homosexuals, because I have plenty of friends who are, actually I have one or two friends who are, which is a high percentage of my friends... no offense to them, but this guy was after me and it felt uncomfortable.

If they both left together and for good, that is a big success, because i managed to make them feel like a team, which means i came off as crazy, and didn't offend them individually too much. I'd call that a diplomatic success.

If he left and she's still here, i might get killed by the secret services or similar, because he might be from that field, i suspect. She told me so as well.

All in all, I hope they both left for good, also because that saves me the embarassment of saying goodbye and pretending... i don't know, pretending something for sure.

...

I'll let you know for sure. It's been almost 4 hours since they left. They didn't go to dinner, they didn't go to... where did they go? I think they left. Both of them. I can't go out any time soon, because she might be on the porch, or even worse, he might be on the porch. Let's see if the car is there.

...

The car doesn't seem to be there. I don't hear any steps or running water from upstairs... just a few... another two hours and I'll know if they left or not. In which case these two guys might also be out of my life. I wouldn't bet on her though, because she always sticks around, just in case there's another dinner that I might buy her. **** them all. **** them all. Whoever will be left after this bloodshed will be my friend. Let these "friends" fall, one after the other. I cannot keep a friend who's a man and wants to have a homosexual relationship with me. I cannot keep a friend who exploits me because I treat her, we treat her to the restaurant... and there's many other things I cannot keep these two for. Better alone.

...

Damn. They're back.

This means another day to bear them. And hopefully another day when I totally avoid any contact with them, too.

Let's devise the strategy for tomorrow. Today's strategy worked fine.

1) keeping all doors locked
2) waking up... early

I could wake up early and go for a huge swim (now I have trained for this), not around the whole island yet, but at least all the way to the whale-shaped rock, and back.

This could take one hour and a half, with fins. I must get back before any one of them gets up, so I should come back at 8.30. That's plenty of time. Let's check sunrise.

Ok, the sun rises at 7 am, just early enough for me to start swimming then.

I swim from 7 till 8.30... it takes me 3 hours to go around the island and that looks like a long time. But let's be pessimistic because i am older and less trained, so let's say it takes me 4 hours. Since the distance I want to swim tomorrow is about 1/7th:

island.jpg

Which multiplied by two is 2/7th... let's calculate how long it should take me.

240 minutes times 2 divided by 7 = 68 minutes

Just as i said. I need one hour and a half to be safe.

He'll be sleeping longer than 8.30. But she might wake up... to be absolutely safe, I should leave before sunrise, just as i swim after sunset, i can swim before sunrise.

I am setting the alarm at 6.30.

Then, if I fulfill my schedule, I should be back at 7.30. If I am late, I will be back at the worst, at 8.

There's no way I'll meet them.

Then I come home and sleep or whatever. For sure not opening my door to them.

Then nothing until they leave for the city again, like today, at 5 pm, at which time I'll go swimming again.

Yeah, let's do this. Doesn't matter if I haven't slept my full 8 hours.

And tomorrow is the last day, because on sunday they're leaving for the airport, by noon.
 
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Ok, the systems did better in the first two days of the week, when i wasn't trading them yet, but since i've helped them, with a couple of extra trades on ZN and GBL, i made twice as much as the 1000 they would have made on their own in the 3 days i traded them.

Now I'm drinking this beer i found in the refrigerator, "franziskaner" it's called.

It has no usefulness as far as nutrition, beer I mean. Except for calories of course, but I am not running out of calories. I'm drinking it because i didn't bring melatonin with me and I'd have trouble sleeping otherwise. I'm drinking the whole 66 centiliters of it.

Let's say that I am celebrating a whole day without meeting my guests.

Oh, and I'm celebrating my capital of 10k, great success considering that... when was it...?

...

After looking for a while, it must have been... my trades on ZN and NG must have taken place on the third of september. So now think about it: on September 3rd I had 4k and now I have 10k. That is exactly 150% return in two weeks.

Haven't been luckier/better in months.

Now i need to leave it all up to the systems, or else as usual I'll bring it back to 4k from 10k.

...

Yeah, 300% a month. Nice fantasy. I'd own the world in a year or two.

The problem is that I can keep it up for just two weeks, and then if I try, as I did before, to keep it up, then I'll quickly blow my account out.

So, now let's play it easy and allow the systems to trade.

...

I've calculated, while drinking franziskaner, that the average week is 1600 dollars of profit, with the systems i've enabled.

I won't be able to repeat the past results, as a rule, so let's only count on 1000 dollars per week.

That is 4000 dollars per month, that I can make with these systems, without doing anything.

Now the scaling up problem presents itself again, but I will not address it for a while, until we reach 20k.

By then, it will be late novembre and the financial collapse should be near or happened already and all my capital will evaporate anyway.

So the question now is: do i really believe in all my forecasts of global collapse?

Or, being now a capitalist, am i starting to change them? Am I starting to hope there'll be no collapse?

Let's say this. I still hope for collapse, because that is the fastest way out of the bank.

But in case it won't happen, at least I'll have the systems to trade.

To prepare for it, I should start buying survival things, the usual things alex jones advertises: seeds, gold. But i don't have the money for it yet.

So, what do i do with this money?

Because i will have some extra money.

I would pay for sex. That's the first thing that comes to my mind.

Because i don't have enough money to quit my job.

How about this. Let's hope for financial collapse just in italy, so the dollar will not be wiped out and I'll keep trading.

Then, with that profit, i should be able to pay for sex.

I remember i had this friend, who wanted to go on a trip and she asked me if I knew a quick way to make 1000 dollars.

She also asked me if I would take her money, 1000 dollars, and double it with my trading. I advised her against it, given my history of doubling up but also blowing out. But she seemed desperate, so we were negotiating money for sex, but then my friend happened to be there, and he said "don't do it, because he'll tell everyone". And I said, i nodded in approval because it's true.

But I think we could have worked out a deal. I'd be willing to pay a friend, who doesn't have any disease, a friend of my choice, about 500 dollars for sex. It's not much, but she might like it, and repeat it. She'd definitely repeat it because she's a nymphomaniac.

Then i'd have a problem because we have a crime here called something like "encouraging a woman to prostitute herself", so she might even blackmail me and get more money in order for me to avoid jail.

Or.

Or I could take a trip to a nearby country when there's this former girlfriend who is willing to have sex with me. That might cost me the same amount, but i might not get any.

Yeah, it's kind of complicated.

Yeah, i need to make more money. I need thousands to spend rather than hundreds.

Then there's drugs.

I wouldn't mind doing drugs. I could finally afford some serious drugs.

Like marijuana. Wow.

I can't wait to make some money with my systems, so i can afford some healthy drugs - unlike alcohol, cigarettes. Marijuana, in some forms, cures cancer. That is one healthy mother ****ing drug.

i'll keep writing in the next post
 
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i used to be a web designer.

this would be a good field to invest a few dollars, because people are very intelligent and very poor, also because they're very young.

plenty of ideas, energy, intelligence and skills, and no money and no one believing in them.

with an investment of just 500 dollars, i could register a domain, have a great website made - i don't have the skills anymore, nor the style.

but how do i meet these young guys needing capital?

i'd like to work on one of my ideas, but what?

in english

too much work

and i don't really need to produce profit from anything, since i am trading the systems for this purpose - and trading is the fastest way i know to increase capital

so let's focus on spending the money and enjoying it

taxis, i am taking them already

i cannot increase my part-time schedule because they will not let me

if my profits are secure, and not subject to being wiped out at any time without warning, then i can focus on spending, otherwise i'd be increasing my chance of blowing out during a drawdown

maybe i should focus on forgetting that i am running the systems at all, because the more i focus on spending the more i feel i need more money, then i am encouraged to add discretionary trades, and then i blow out

I should really dive back into my conspiracy theories, to keep myself busy

Even if there were good discretionary trades to make, and i know there are, after these first two successful trades, i'd need to wait months, before recovering my subject point of view. After trading, whether successfully or not, my judgment is clouded.

So let's just dive back into conspiracy theories and the impending global collapse.

Maybe i could just buy things such as this:
Buy LifeStraw: Award-winning portable water filter

That's just 40 dollars and i can carry it with me everywhere. This is the type of stuff i could focus on, in terms of studying and spending.

food and shelter, says maslow's hierarchy of needs.

Within food, water comes first.

Then I should focus on seeds - those also cost 40 dollars.

still going to swim tomorrow at 6.30 am.

hey, i might change my mind tomorrow morning - no problem if i do.
 
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Ok, for some reason I woke up. I had turned off the alarm but I still woke up, even 45 minutes early, at 5:45 am. So I'm going to do it. As expected it is still dark outside, but i can see the light coming on the horizon. I'll come back in a bit longer than hour from the time I leave. Most likely, i won't have much to say, because, unlike with humans, there won't be anything unpredictable going on with the fishes. I mean, unless I meet a shark, a whale or a jellyfish, there'll be nothing to say about the swim. It's kind of interesting. Even more interesting it'd be in the swimming pool, one without people. What could you say if someone asks you "how did it go?". Yeah, maybe you could say how much you swam, but in this case not even that, because I've already decided how far i'm going.
 
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Yep, i made it back, by 7.30 i was home. So i only swam for... 45 minutes, instead of one hour. And i didn't go as far as I had planned, yeah, because the air was too cold. The water doesn't change much from one day to the next and from the night to the day. It's the air above water that changes.

As September advances, my showers get longer and longer, as if I had to compensate the cold air with the heat from the shower. Actually they start with long cold showers outdoors in early september, and they end with long hot showers indoors.

I got back and i felt like i had slept 8 hours, but now, after a while, i feel as i usually feel when i only sleep five hours. Yeah, because water and exercise wake you up, momentarily.

I swam till sunrise and then came back. No, it's not really like that: there's a mountain, so i swam until the sun showed up above the mountain, rose above the mountain, so it's not sunrise, but almost.

Anyway, i was thinking about these guys, the two guests.

I definitely blew the problem out of proportion, got obsessed and felt prisoner and restless, but they have a few faults. Let's list them.

guest #1, female:

1) always laughing and encouraging others to laugh at me
2) always siding with whoever is strongest in a conversation, regardless of her convictions
3) manipulating others to pay things for her: here she wanted to go to the restaurant every day, but without paying
4) disrespected my grandma's maid, because the other guest was bored and restless, so she adapted to him - worst behaviour
5) spends all day long getting tan at the beach and doesn't swim with me

summary: bitch, to be avoided. worthless bitch.


guest #2, male:

1) feels superior, and not because of his mind, but because of his money: failed
2) doesn't swim, can't swim
3) wanted to borrow my laptop, insisting, every day, when i had him promise me weeks in advance that he wouldn't ask me for it, because i had told him it bothers me to give my laptop (with my systems on it)
4) is in love with me or something like that: biggest problem maybe (i only realized it here - not even sure though)
5) disrespected my grandma's maid, by showing boredom and sitting with a disrespectful posture

Specific incidents with both:
1) she once went to bed and said to us: "you guys do whatever you want, I am going to bed", hinting at the fact that we could have engaged in homosexual relationships - that is not something you should say when one of the two people is actually gay and the other isn't. That is not something intelligent to say. Stupid bitch.

2) guest #2 incidentally said that i am very intelligent and good-looking, or similar. That is not something I'd like to hear from someone who's gay.

If you put all of the above together, you can understand why I got obsessed, paranoid, annoyed and sick of these two guests. You can understand why i am on the run from my two guests.

...

ok, in a bit i'll go to sleep and i have 3 hours of sleep to catch up.

this means that I'll be rid of them until lunch for sure, then they go to the restaurant, and that means i am rid of them until 2 pm.

the worst is over: I will have less than 24 hours to go, counting from the time i'll wake up.

I am not planning on saying goodbye to them. Tomorrow I'll leave early in the morning for a swimming marathon, and come back 5 hours later.
 
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idea2develop

Woke up again. This time I only slept half an hour, and I have to catch up on two and a half hours more.

It's 2 pm and they still haven't bothered me. They might not bother me at all today. They might have understood that I don't want to be bothered.

I added a copper system to my 22 systems, so now I am trading 23.

"Chopin - Minute Waltz.mp3", I am playing it. So that's part of my state of mind right now. Whatever you're playing influences your mood.

I need to work on a schedule of fixed fractional for futures, in other words, since my contracts are not infinitely divisible like stock trading almost is, and since i also have a very small capital, i have to devise a plan for including/disabling systems, one at a time, as capital increases/decreases.

The first to be enabled will be those requiring a small margin and having a low drawdown. Or rather, it will be the combination of the two to decide which systems I will enable first (and disable last). With the premise that I am only allowing profitable systems to trade.

If a system only makes 1 dollar a month, but has no drawdown and no margin requirement, obviously that will be the first one to be enabled, no matter what the other systems make.

I need to find a way to keep this simple, because there are so many characteristics in these systems, that it can easily turn into something either not manageable, or manageable with mistakes.

Ok, let's first decide which of the 120 systems I keep from trading.

1) all those with a negative forward-tested balance or with less than 10 trades: 56 remain
2) now removing those with a sharpe ratio lower than 1: 47 systems remain

Ok, done.

Now I need to sum max loss (turned into positive) to margin required, divide it by two for those systems where I am trading half a contract, and that will give me the enabling/disabling schedule.

What about if a system is correlated to another one? This should be considered, too. Because it's like adding, in part, two contracts of the same system.

Oh god. There's another problem.

A system that loses 500 as a max loss once every 100 trades is not the same as one that loses it every 3 trades.

How do i include this in the measurement?

I mean, i still want to keep it simple.

This reminds me that i was stuck on this problem when i stopped studying math about six months ago, due to the boss complaining about it.

The problem of how to automate a schedule of enabling/disabling systems for a fixed fractional money management.

Where was I: we sum max loss to margin required and then we still have to deal with correlations, but we must simplify so we forget about those, because they're the slightest detail, all things considered: i will not trade the very correlated systems, actually let's remove those, too.

Recap:
1) all those with a negative forward-tested balance or with less than 10 trades: 56 remain
2) now removing those with a sharpe ratio lower than 1: 47 systems remain
3) now removing the very correlated systems (ES, NQ, YM): 40 systems left

Still faced with the same problem, because if a system loses 500 at its worst, but its worst is more likely to happen than for another system, then that adds a probability of a deeper drawdown, which can only be measured in terms of probability and not in terms of historical drawdown (since that could be random).

So, the first component is the margin and that's easy... now I need to work on the second ingredient... but to do so properly i cannot examine the biggest loss and the percentage of losses. I must look at the distribution of losses (mind you: not the sequence, because I believe that to be random and therefore the concept of maximum drawdown to be an invalid one).

...

Damn, I had forgotten about this, having no capital: i yet have to automate my portfolio selection... I remember i was planning to take math classes and study summation notation, which is the key to understanding all these portfolio theory papers I've been trying to read.

... the second ingredient...

average loss won't do, because it's also the frequency.

average monthly loss won't do, because there could be a number of wins in the middle, compensating for those losses.

oh damn, crazy as it may sound, we must include the wins and their size in this distribution, so to have a distribution of trades: what is the best measure for the distribution of trades?

What comes to mind is the profit factor and the sharpe ratio, which are also very correlated. And I don't like the sharpe ratio, because it is a refined product like pasta, and i don't know what the **** else they're putting in it, there's too much crap in it, and i am a raw vegan, and in the same way i am more inclined to like the profit factor.

The profit factor. Let's see. I had made a file, with the travis ratio or something, showing the limits of profit factor and sharpe ratio.

... here it is:
View attachment developing_my_own_risk_metric.xls

For some reason it was in the trash can. I am very tidy and yet I can't remember why I would do something like this.

I am looking now at the sheets "scenario_template" and "list_of_accepted_limits".

Doesn't say too much, but allows some further reasoning.

Sharpe ratio doesn't do much that profit factor doesn't do, plus it adds some potentially dangerous ingredients.

Now, profit factor divides total profit by total losses.

My only extra need is to know how much it's actually losing, and I only care about how much it wins, because it will matter in a sequence of trades: a system with a loss of 500 followed by a win of 2000 is not the same as another followed by a win of only 1000, because probability could then add another two losses to that sequence.

And of course I don't want to have to do a montecarlo simulation to find out. I need a formula.

Now, with profit factor, we do sum of wins divided by (positive) sum of losses.

But this would equate a system having 1000s of wins and 500s of losses, to a system with 100s and 50s, and yes in terms of performance it's the same of course, but I am talking here in terms of scalability, and so for me the one on a smaller scale is best, or rather it comes first when it comes to scaling up.

So, what do i do? Do i subtract the wins from the losses? Let's see.

As I said, I don't care about measuring performance right now, because all 40 systems are profitable. Even though... using the sum of wins and the sum of losses also appraises performance.

let's hypothesize some cases:

1000 of win, 500 of loss
100 of win, 50 of loss
100 of win, 66 of loss

Ok, let's say 1000-500=500

nope, not good, because if a system makes 1000 and loses 1, this would tell us it's awful, whereas it isn't.

Ok, how about the profit factor times the sum of the losses?

1000 of win, 500 of loss: profit factor 2 times 500 = 1000
100 of win, 50 of loss: profit factor 2 times 50 = 100
100 of win, 66 of loss: profit factor 1.5 times 66 = 100

Hmm, maybe flawed analysis, but I am making some progress, so i'll keep going.

The last two cannot be like this. How about loss divided by profit factor?

1000 of win, 500 of loss: 500/2= 250
100 of win, 50 of loss: 50/2=25
100 of win, 66 of loss: 66/1.5=44

This measures at once the probability of drawdown and the size of it.

Certainly system 3 makes money, and risks much less than system 1, so it's preferable, but its losses and sequence of losses are worse than system 2.

But at what point would system 3 cease to be better than system 1?

Let's see...

"The Truman Show - Phillip Glass - Raising the Sail.mp3"

Say a system has 100 of wins and 99 of losses, this results in 1/1=1 so formula is flawed, because this would seem better than system 2. A system that makes no money and loses 99 cannot be better than one that makes 50... I am getting entangled. As often happens to me in this area.

Let's see if I can come up with a quick and valid conclusion before giving up and remembering that I got entangled, which would not be a good thing, since I like to finish things and doing otherwise discourages me.

Maximum drawdown is very appealing but too bad that it's wrong. Because the sequence of the past max drawdown could depend on many things: few trades (the more the trades, the more likely it is to be higher), lucky trades... cannot rely on it.

But if I could devise a... probabilistic maximum drawdown, then it'd be perfect. Yet i don't want to have to do it on the "blender", because that would defeat the purpose and it could cause the same mistakes.

Given a series of trades, which yes could also be lucky, but that's all i've got so i have to rely on those. But what i do is not rely on their past sequence. And as i said, I want this probabilistic max drawdown but without having to obtain it empirically.

There's got to be formula other than profit factor.

Let's continue in the next post.
 
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idea2develop (code for later searches)

I remember the concept of value at risk might be related.

Oh no, no. It sucks.

no no, wait: it is related.

Because that's what i do with my blender: i calculate how likely i am to blow out. The only thing is that i do it empirically, otherwise it'd be perfect. And yet VaR might have a formula.

Value at risk - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The VaR risk metric summarizes the distribution of possible losses by a quantile, a point with a specified probability of greater losses. Common alternative metrics are standard deviation, mean absolute deviation, expected shortfall and downside risk.[1]
Let's check out expected shortfall and downside risk.

First this other essay, by Loren Cobb on The Motley Fool forums:
TMF: Concerning Maximum Drawdowns / Mechanical Investing
Reliability of the Maximum Drawdown

Damn. No one explaining these things with simple words.

This is it:
Investment Performance Analysis & Risk Management - Relative Risk

Yep, my thing should be this, VaR:
Investment Performance Analysis & Risk Management - Value-At-Risk
Value-At-Risk (VaR) answers the question, “How much can the value of a portfolio decline with a given probability in a given time period?”.
The only difference is that i intend the term "portfolio" as portfolios consisting of just one system. For the rest, this is what I want.

The question I'd like to ask is: how much can each system lose in two months (wow, time matters, too, because in the meanwhile the other systems are making money). The percentage confidence level is not as clear, but I won't be fussy about that, as i'll apply the same percentage to all systems.

Then, if I ever manage to figure out the formula, I'll input the trades by each system (forward-tested trades), and figure out a hierarchy of enabling/disabling them, based precisely on VaR.

Steiner goes on to say "For the purposes of calculating VAR we are interested only in losses, not gains, so this is the relevant probability". This is a problem, because gains do matter, given that they increase capital, and so it matters the frequency of gains. But let's keep reading.

Awful me!

I couldn't even finish a page, that's how math illiterate I am.

Ok, forget this, I will proceed empirically or whatever it takes to finish this thing. I am not getting entangled in papers, essays, academics and formulas anymore.

I will complete the list and hierarchy, and then it will be mechanical from there on.

Let's keep going in the next post.
 
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idea2develop

Supertramp - The Logical Song.mp3

Ok.

I am going to use just max loss. Here's the rationale. Given that i am trading so many systems, all that counts is the biggest loss, because no system trades more than once a day and no traded system loses more than 50% of the time so whatever will happen will be offset by the other systems' profit.

Great.

Ok, since there's systems with just 10 trades, I can't use forward-tested loss, because it wouldn't be fair to the systems with 100 forward-tested trades, which certainly show a bigger maximum loss due to a larger sample.

So I'll use an average of 1) back-tested and forward-tested losses, 2) average loss and 3) standard deviation (stdevp).

Pretty funny, my mom and my aunt are worried that I may be mistreating my guests. Lol.

I admit it: i only get along with 10% of my guests, and, one after the other, i argue with all of them. Roommates, I only get along with 50% of them.

It is directly proportional to the time spent together.

I told them both that I had many complaints about the guests, but I did not tell them anything, so basically all I did was pay for their housing and ask them to leave me alone. So, even forgetting about the fact that they disappointed me, I don't see the big deal. Ok, the whole matter is all the things i wrote here, plus the important detail that one is gay, and he's bothering me (he told me "bello"), so basically... but I can't tell them because it'd be like making fun of him while he's gone: talking behind someone's back is fine by me, but not with such private issues. Besides, I am not even 100% sure that he's gay and that he's after me: he could simply be very polite... he should not have told me that I am good-looking though.

Anyway, the official and close to the truth explanation is that these guys are rude, disrespected the maid, go to the restaurant, don't go trekking with me, don't go swimming with me and just lie in the sun and go to restaurants. So I am... and he asked to use my computer breaking our agreement that he wouldn't need it nor ask for it. So I am sick of these guys. I hope they're upset enough to never contact me again. The only thing that sucks is that this guy has connections in the secret services, so he might have me whacked and/or my apartment burglarized. Never let a gay secret agent fall in love with you: keep them away. I am ****ed either way. Let's really hope he doesn't use his connections to hurt me in any way. Let's hope that he thinks that I am crazy and that he stays away from me and doesn't seek revenge. I must do more things to make him think that I am crazy. Kind of reminds me that story of the gay mobster... you know: they have you whacked very easily. There were some famous gay mobsters and dude, that's a dangerous thing, well, it's dangerous for women, too, of course, but I never thought about it. Poor women, being harassed by guys they don't like all their lives, and then later, not liked by anyone... a life of this unpleasant crap. Let's hope he doesn't kill me. What a ****ing stupid idea I had of inviting him on vacation. Sick sick person that he is. Because, you know, i mean: i have plenty of friends who are gay (2). But you should be a peaceful person and not have dubious and questionable connections and friendships. I am referring to these secret societies i've been studying. I am not saying he's a satanic follower, but one of those elite rotary club crap societies. I never had any friends from this field and for a reason. And sure enough, the first person... is a disappointment. You see: it's not that being is in itself wrong, because my cousin and my two friends are gay and they're fine, but you must stay away from questionable clubs, because otherwise you then have two reasons to be blackmailed: being gay and belonging to one of these crap secret societies. That's a bad mix. It's bad enough having to lie about being gay, because you see that in turn leads to dubious relationships, and puts you in risky situations. But if, on top of this, you keep increasing your risks... forget about it. I really really hope this guy is upset enough to avoid me in the future but not upset enough to have me killed.

What would be ideal is if I could also avoid the freeloading lady. But i wouldn't count on it, because she'll be sticking around to see if she can get another free dinner from me.

You know, this whole thing reminds me of my cousin. He had a girlfriend once whom he left, after a one-night stand... so i guess he wasn't his girlfriend. So she then called him and rang his bell at his apartment incessantly, maybe for weeks... well, he started having panic attacks. After years of panic attacks, he moved to london, and he hasn't come back for 10 years already. He says if he comes back he's afraid of meeting her.

I am kind of feeling the same thing with this dude. He just sent his fourth text message in 48 hours, of which I answered none. I don't care, dude, that you're a big shot: i want to be left alone. If you have to kill me, kill me, but I ain't playing your game.

I ain't reading your conversation-seeking messages, because i don't want any conversation. All doors are locked.

So I was saying...
So I'll use an average of 1) back-tested and forward-tested losses, 2) average loss and 3) standard deviation (stdevp).
I am using those three.

Ok so, I will select those 40 or so systems, and then rank them by ascending order of downside potential (not the technical term, just my own).

It is not perfect, because the performance matters, too. You see: margin is not limitless, so if I have to choose between two systems, I'll choose the one with the better performance, even if it means a slightly higher margin or max loss. This is very complex, as I expected. Each time, I start again, get to it, and despite my intention to keep it simple, it is clear that it is not. I have not yet found a simple formula that takes care of everything, and I have not found a way to automate portfolio selection.

See you on the next episode. Maybe in a day, in a week, or a month. Sooner or later.
 
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idea2develop

Many of the things I am studying are intersecting now with the old and new testament:
Nephilim Hybrids – Hiding in Plain Site? « L.A. Marzulli's Blog

Not just Fritz Springmeier (who doesn't seem crazy at all), but also the lifeguard were telling me about the old and new testament. There's a whole lot of non-crazy people who seem to be doing something crazy to me such as quoting the bible, so many that I am starting to reconsider my assumption that anything to do with religion is foolish.

The same exact people aware of chemtrails and 911 also quote the bible for various reasons. I would say about 20% of them are very much into the bible. You know, I considered myself "rational" and "logical" and this to me would imply not going in the direction of religion, but the bible could in fact not be about religion but about knowledge. For example, i find many saying that the bible talks about ETs.

For example, does this guy seem crazy? Not at all:

ETs in the Bible 1 - YouTube

what'd be interesting to find, though, is not a person who was a believer and found about 911, UFOs, etc., and reconciled the two, but a person who was an atheist and started studying the bible, as an atheist, because he found useful information in it. That's the path to go, I think. I need to find atheists studying the bible. The problem however is that as soon as an atheist finds out that the bible is true, then he might no longer be an atheist. But at least I know they weren't religious to begin with.
 
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idea2develop

I am done with this thing of fixed fractional. Essentially at 2000, I have one system. At 3000, I have 5. At 5000, I have 10, At 10k I have 23, as I do now.

At 20k, I will have only a few more, because now they're getting bigger and bigger in terms of max loss and margin (gold and silver).

Essentially for every one of these that I add, I must have the extra margin/loss that could happen because of it. As soon as it's gone, I have to stop trading it. I found a good thing, in order to understand the hierarchy of enabling them better, to divide that potential loss by the profit factor. This way I really have a balanced hierarchy.

According to this thing, with 10k I could only have 7, but this is where comes into play my need to make money faster than allowed by the safest money management: I can't wait years. So, at the start, I am speeding up. But I'll slow down as I go along.

The heaviest system in terms of capital is SI_ON_02: before i add that one, I will have added the earliest ones such as ZN_ON_02 many times over. A big contract like that gets added only when most of the other small contracts are being traded in multiples.

A little bit at a time I am getting familiar and automating as much as possible my idea of fixed fractional with futures.

More here:
Fixed Fractional and Fixed Ratio Money Management Styles - For Dummies
Fixed fractional

Fixed fractional trading assumes that you want to limit each trade to a set portion of your total account, often between 2 and 10 percent. Within that range, you’d trade a larger percentage of money in less risky trades and at the smaller end of the scale for more risky trades.

181183.image0.jpg
The equation for calculating fixed fractional trade proportions.


N is the number of contracts or shares of stock you should trade, f is the fixed fraction of your account that you have decided to trade, equity is the value of your total account, and trade risk is the amount of money you could lose on the transaction. Because trade risk is a negative number, you need to convert it to a positive number (absolute value) to make the equation work.
This means that if you have decided to limit each trade to 10% of your account, if you have a $20,000 account, and if the risk of loss is –$3,500, your trade should be as follows:
181184.image1.jpg
An example of a fixed fractional trade calculation.

Of course, you probably can’t trade .57 of a contract, so in this case, you would have to round up to one.

This website is great. There's also an excellent page on optimal f, which at the moment i won't need:
http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/the-optimal-f-money-management-style.html

I am getting closer and closer to it. That's what matters: making progress, one step at a time. I have tried enough and wasted enough time on academic papers, that keep me entangled forever: not even the author knows exactly a formula for money management, and probably these academics don't even trade. Like doctors don't care about healing but about treating, these academics don't care about money management but only care to write about it. They don't care to achieve some money management task: they only care about debating it forever. Like doctors care about treating your illness forever (not curing it, but treating it): and they don't care that you could avoid it with a simple change in your diet.
 
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You know something, if all gay people were like this guy, and they were all pursuing me, insistently, then i would become racist. I would have a prejudice. What keeps me is that I've seen the typical gay basher, the typical joe six pack, football player or whatever it is that they are: and let me tell you, i feel much closer to gays than to these gay bashers, so all my solidarity to gays.

However, in this case, we're talking about a gay pursuing me, so this is totally disgusting and, tell you what, i feel offended that he would even consider me as the object of his desires. First because i am not gay, and second because if you don't know whether someone is gay or not, you should not start pursuing them, you mother ****er. And since statistics are on my side, and gays are 8% of the population, he should assume that I am not, and therefore should not start his hunt... jesus, this guy has been asking me to go on a weekend trip for months. Now i know why and it all comes together. I knew the instant he told me that i was goodlooking. It hit me a day later or two, but when it hit me, that's when I basically decided - not because he asked me to use my computer - decided that basically i had to stop all contacts with these two friends, and particularly this guy. Jesus what a ****ing moron he is.

The funny thing is that he'll never know that I disappeared because he told me that i am "bello", because i freaked out when he was using my laptop for too long (on his stock trading). So hopefully he'll just think that i am extremely paranoid about my laptop, which I am, but not as paranoid as getting ****ed up the ass, as someone very vulgar would put it.

Remember i told you about my cousin that he's in london with panic attacks because of a girl who wouldn't leave him alone. Now I understand him. I am not at that point, but i am at the point that I can easily decide to never answer this guy's calls or text messages, ever again.

I'm going to try to make them a bundle, a lot, a group, how do you say this? I am going to try to treat my two friends in the same way and disappear from both of their lives, so that neither feels too offended and they'll both think it was about this vacation. I should use vacations on an industrial scale to get rid of friends. I invite them over, those i want to get rid of, and then, since everyone does something wrong, I just act like my intolerant self, and split up during the vacation. But then I must really offend them and not... the thing is that the guys from last year, they were actually real friends, and i really jeopardized our friendship because of how much i disliked them for their messiness.

This summer instead these guys were so so, i asked more because i didn't want to come alone than because i was crazy about them.

And I found out that being tidy is not a guarantee of being likable. Indeed, sincerity is important. Swimming, too. Not going to the restaurant. And respecting my maid. Friendliness. Sincerity. Having a good heart. The guys from the previous years did. These guys have somewhat better manners, but she lacks sincerity and he lacks real respect. Actually he doesn't even have better manners. He is tidy, but he doesn't have good manners. He's too relaxed - i basically don't like this guy. He is always sitting in a relaxed position, too casual, like he doesn't respect his listeners, even if it's my relatives, and he doesn't talk. This guy is super-arrogant.

Now it's 3 am - by the way he woke me up, because his room upstairs is right above mine and at 1 am, he was still awake moving chairs.

It's 3 am and I am having trouble falling back asleep, I guess partly because his room is above mine, and in fact i came into the living room, because i don't want to be too close to him. And mind you, i have two gay friends, and a gay cousin, and have nothing against gays, and actually like them better than gay bashers, whom I would totally exterminate if I could.

But one thing is to have a gay friend, and another is to be insistently pursued by one, given that you aren't one.

Ok, so basically, the only good thing about this is that I'll be sleeping when they'll finally leave - thank god - at about noon. So I don't have to meet them.

Only 9 more hours to go and I'll be sound asleep. And all doors are locked.
 
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idea2develop

4.30 am and i am still awake

i am already a paranoid person, but in this case it is appropriate: i put in my own house this guy: well, thank god, in the house upstairs: anyway, another 8 hours and he'll be gone - knowing this guy, i wouldn't be surprised if i found him in the street, harassing me further

Anyway, i was also thinking about the lady: pretty nice vacation she had. She said she had no money so i took care of the housing. Then all of a sudden, when she's here "restaurant is cheaper than grocery shopping": guess what, she had him pay for the restaurant. She is basically only paying for the plane ticket. And none of us is going out with her, needless to say. Another person to avoid when i get back to rome. I won't answer her messages either.

8 hours to go. I was counting the hours at work, and I am counting the hours on vacation. This is one crazy crazy situation. And it's not the first time. You know what this means? Next time I'll be alone. I may be counting the hours out of boredom, but not out of displeasure for my guests. Yep, i remember counting the days last summer and the previous summer, too. I remember counting the hours whenever i had a guest somewhere.

Anyway, I have to be ready if these guys come to meet me at my house: what do I say? I'll say "yeah, I am tired". They'll ask "why don't you answer my messages?" and I'll say "useless discussions...". Basically i must not tell them that the relationship is over, because that's a dangerous thing to say to people. I must say instead "i was tired...", "i am tired...", "i don't feel like it...", "i like being by myself...". Similar crap. If they insist or attack, I will say "i don't feel like arguing..." and/or "i didn't feel like arguing". I could even apologize why not and say "i am sorry but all of a sudden i had one of those irrational behaviours..." (that you have when someone is trying to have a homosexual relationship with you).

I guess there's really nothing left to do. The portfolio theory is done, as far as I could bring it. The discussion on these guys is done. The plan of action for the future is set. I am dead tired. I might browse a few more minutes on fixed fractional and then go to bed.
 
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