isa's short term trading journal

[isatrader]

GKN Plc Rolling Spread Entry

Trade

GKN Plc Rolling Spread
Direction: Long

Entry Price: 208.21
Spread: 0.72

Stop: 188
Target: 240

Account Risk: 0.50%
Potential Account Profit: 0.78%
Risk Ratio: 1.57

ATR (200 Day): 5.92 (2.84%)
ATR (52 Week): 14.21 (6.82%)

ATR Targets
1x ATR: 214.13
1.5x ATR: 217.09
2x ATR: 220.05

Attached is the daily chart

 

[isatrader]

Two big trades today SlipC, well done. Did you trade the one from the other thread in your account?

 

[SlipperyC]

new trade;

LONG DAX, £2/pt, 7162. Stop: 7150, target: 7220

[edit] stop to 7165 (4.18pm)

[edit] out at 7165 for +3 pts (+£6) (16:26)

 

[SlipperyC]

Thanks isa.

Unfortunately not!! Was in a bit of a hurry this morning and forgot to set a limit buy order. Couldn't get access early on so missed it. With hindsight I could have jumped on the pullbacks, there were two very precise ones on the way up.

At least I caught it on the way down. Glad my analysis and channel were spot-on. Just wait and see where it goes from here. Its either going to drop to 7050 (or less!!) or blow through the downtrend line around 7250.

 

[isatrader]

At least I caught it on the way down. Glad my analysis and channel were spot-on. Just wait and see where it goes from here. Its either going to drop to 7050 (or less!!) or blow through the downtrend line around 7250.

I think there might be a big psychological aspect to it today as it is two years since the US market lows this week. My money is on higher for the next two months before the May doldrums. But the market is anything but predictable, so who knows.

 

[SlipperyC]

new trade

LONG DAX, £3/pt, 7150. Stop: 7140, target: 7220

[edit] stop to b/e (5.15pm)

[edit] was stopped out at b/e

 

[isatrader]

HOIL.L - moving stop loss to break even.

 

[isatrader]

Closed HOIL.L at 295.81. Will update full details later

 

[isatrader]

Closed BVIC.L at 389.22. Will update full details later

 

[isatrader]

HOIL.L Swing Trade Exit

Trade

Heritage Oil Rolling Spread
Direction: Long

Entry Price: 272.55
Spread: 1.49

Stop: 245
Target: 300

Account Risk: 0.34%
Potential Account Profit: 0.34%
Risk Ratio: 1

ATR (200 Day): 14.84 (5.44%)
ATR (52 Week): 38.07 (13.97%)

ATR Targets:
1x ATR: 287.39
1.5x ATR: 294.81
2x ATR: 302.23

Entry Reason
I've been watching this one. I think it's ready to bounce back to 300 level. The divergences are huge on force index and MACD. It's at its -3ATR level on the weekly which has only happened once before, but it is also at a major support level that goes back to 2008.

I decided to take my profits in Heritage Oil a little bit before my target of 300, as it had made a 7% move in the morning and was lingering at the 22 day EMA. This was just above my 2nd ATR target so I was happy to exit there. The 300 level proved to be strong resistance as I thought it might and it closed much lower at 282, so I got out at a good level for a change.

Closing trade

Heritage Oil Rolling Spread

Entry Price: 272.55
Exit Price: 295.81

Trade Percentage: 8.53%

Daily Channel Captured: 25%
Trade Grade: B

ATR Adjusted Percentage Gain: 1.57%

Account P/L: 0.29%

 

[isatrader]

Britvic Rolling Spread Exit

Trade

Britvic (BVIC.L) Rolling Spread
Direction: Long

Entry Price: 375.95
Spread: 1.70

Stop: 349
Target: 402.2

Account Risk: 0.33%
Potential Account Profit: 0.32%
Risk Ratio: 0.97

ATR (200 Day): 10.67 (2.84%)
ATR (52 Week): 25.51 (6.79%)

ATR Targets:
1x ATR: 386.62
1.5x ATR: 391.96
2x ATR: 397.29

Entry Reason
I added this to my watchlist yesterday as a possible swing trade. It opened higher and has traded up today, so I'm in for a swing trade targeting the 400 area.

This was a very similar trade to Heritage Oil, but I thought I'd take profits as it lost it's momentum today and had gone past my first target level.

Closing trade

Britvic Rolling Spread

Entry Price: 375.95
Exit Price: 389.22

Trade Percentage: 3.53%

Daily Channel Captured: 17%
Trade Grade: C

ATR Adjusted Percentage Gain: 1.24%

Account P/L: 0.16%

 

[SlipperyC]

Go isa! Trading success seems to be on the increase for all!

 

[SlipperyC]

NEW TRADE;

LONG DAX, £2/pt, 7163. Stop: 7155, Target: 7205

[edit] stopped out at 7155 for -8pts (-£16) (1:50pm)

 

[isatrader]

Go isa! Trading success seems to be on the increase for all!

Thanks mate. It has been a better run lately. I think I'm starting to develop a method with the stocks based on the ATR work I've been doing in the other thread and the relative strength research. It is not there yet, but it is developing fairly well. So I'm really pleased I started the group thread as it is helping me a lot.

 

[SlipperyC]

NEW TRADE;

LONG DAX, £2/pt, 7155. Stop: 7147, Target: 7205

[edit] stopped out at 7147 for -8pts (-£16) (2.35pm)

 

[SlipperyC]

NEW TRADE;

LONG DAX, £3/pt, 7126. Stop: 7116, Target: 7205

see if we get a bounce!

NO BOUNCE!

[edit] stopped out at 7116 for -10pts (-£30)

 

[isatrader]

Watchlist Addition

DTE Energy (DTE)

I've been paper trading this one on the Spike trade site this week and it has made a strong 2x ATR move to breakout of a year long sideways trading channel on increasing volume. It made a triple top breakout on the point and figure chart on the 7/3/11 and is one box away from a buy signal on the relative strength P&F chart against the S&P 500 equal weighted index.

It is overbought on a daily basis right now, so I'm watching for a decent pullback for a possible entry point for my SB account.

Attached is my charts

 

[SlipperyC]

How about this for your watchlist isa?

Johnstone Press.

Chief exec announced resignation yesterday (http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/mar/09/john-fry-quits-johnston-press). Share price around 10p, debt of approx £386M but seems to be turning around profitability.

Whats your view? Could be a decent entry point if it gets a bounce from takeover rumours, asset stripping etc.

 

[isatrader]

How about this for your watchlist isa?

Johnstone Press.

Chief exec announced resignation yesterday (http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/mar/09/john-fry-quits-johnston-press). Share price around 10p, debt of approx £386M but seems to be turning around profitability.

Whats your view? Could be a decent entry point if it gets a bounce from takeover rumours, asset stripping etc.

I wouldn't go near it personally. Bad sector, print and newspapers are declining long term, digital platforms are eating away their readerships and profit margins. I know this especially well as I work on magazines, digital and the web is growing rapidly where as print is declining.

Looking at the charts. Long term downtrend. A double bottom breakdown on the daily p&F chart yesterday. Weekly chart looks like an evening star pattern to me, which is a high probability bearish pattern. I looked at some relative strength charts as well and is negative against the UK Media Sector Index (NMX5550) and also the market. Not one for me as I'm looking for stocks that are in strong sectors and have outperformed the market but have had a pullback and are at key S/R levels, or are breaking out to new highs with good relative strength.

Relative strength is my main focus at the moment as I've been reading a lot about it lately. I also just bought Stan Weinstein's Secrets for Profit in Bull and Bear Markets

 

[SlipperyC]

thanks for that isa.

NEW TRADE;

LONG DAX, £3/pt, 7070. Stop: 7055, Target: 7120

[edit] stop to 7050 (10.45am)

[edit] stop to b/e (11.02am)

[edit] stopped out at b/e